Two Plus Two Older Archives - Hitting my pair on the river

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- - Hitting my pair on the river (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=377194)

Hitting my pair on the river

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (4 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (8.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.5 BB.

Re: Hitting my pair on the river

AQ is showing enough for you to call this river.

Re: Hitting my pair on the river

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (4 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (8.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.5 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like it. I always make a crying call on the river, but right now as I am analyzing what he might have, I see that you are virtually always beat. I don't know how big of odds we would need to call this, but I think you can fold (if for example, he was outa money, and could only make a half bet, or third of a bet on the river, it would be a much tougher decision). If calling is right, and I really don't think it is, it would only have an EV very slightly above 0.

Re: Hitting my pair on the river

[ QUOTE ]
AQ is showing enough for you to call this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 8 combos of AQ, but don't think he plays like this very often. First of all a lot of times AQ caps. Another portion of the time AQ raises the flop. Yet another portion of the time AQ checks the turn. Lets say given all this, we can devalue his effective combos of AQ to 3 combos.

There are 6 combos of AT, and I think he plays like this very often. But, some AT might raise the flop, so lets devalue this to 5 combos.

There are 9 combos of JT, but I think most of the time he raises the flop. I'm gonna devalue this to 2, as he might slowplay occasionally.

There are 12 combos of KQ. I think this is pretty likely, although they may check the turn, so I will devalue to 8 combos.

There are 6 combos of AK. But they almost always cap the flop, they might raise the flop, and they usually check the turn, so I will call that 1 combo.

Given all of this, we win 11 BB 3 times, and lose 1 BB 15 times. We also win 5 BB 1 time.

My estimations may be off here or there, but given that the winning BB is far bigger than the losing BB, I think even if the assumptions are slightly different, we still end up netting EV+.

I guess you are right, call this river.

Here\'s the results

Since no one seems to care too much about the thread here's the results. Thanx to the 2 posters who voiced their oppinion, it helped out a lot

I lied in my original post when I said I folded the river. I really though that was the right play given the way the hand was played out. I still think it could be the right play b/c I doubt AQ/AK takes this line often enough for it to be correct for me to call. Anyways, I called and got shown down AT for 2 pair and MHING

Re: Here\'s the results

I was recently thinking about the exact situation.
I think it's correct to bet/fold barring a tricky/maniac/'can't read hands fish' read.
What I am interested in is what your perception will be after this bet/fold move. I think it will be perceived as a bluff attempt and you'll be called down liberally and maybe also be bluffed more.