More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

This is primarily an out counting exercise. Obviously the pot is getting big but my outs are dirtier than a public toilet in New York City (New York City?). Pot is 9BB (assume rake is .5BB) so I need >5 outs to call. How many do I have and what is our plan if 10 or ace falls on the river?

UTG is weak tight 27/11/1.8 over 500 hands (most datamined. His UTG raising has been any suited Ace (even A2), high pocket pair, Q9s or higher, ATo and up.

SB is a true fish with the gift of luckbox. He is 47/2.5/.6 over 300 hands. He is calling from the SB with any two suited, and any card over T. He has shown down several times with bottom pair (any piece will do).


Prima 2/4 5 handed

Preflop:
UTG raised, 2 folds, SB call, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> , UTG calls

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> , UTG raises, SB calls, <font color="red">Hero??? </font>

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

I'd call the turn bet without doing any calculations.

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

Odd that this thread didn't get more comments, it's a tricky decision for lime.

I mean, UTG may have AJ and hero is drawing dead to a J, it's a nasty board and few would raise here without either a J or a set. If it's either lime is dead to the J.

8.5-1 (less rake) isn't really enough to draw, i don't think, and do we want to invest another 1BB if we have to showdown? Considering the river action may be SB bets and UTG raises hero may have to fold to SB's river donk too.

I'd say your outs are 3 jacks (i don't count the flush draw worthy of concern here, you have the A :clubs: so someone would have to have exactly QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here methinks).

I would assign 1 out to the remaining 2 tens in case someone has a set or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completes an unlikely flush, and i'd assign 0.5 outs to the remaining aces as 2 pair may not cut it either. That's 4.5 outs; getting 8.5-1, you stand to win about 10% of the time if you hit the river and the pot would need to be laying 9-1 for you to take it; since 0.5BB at least is being raked, i think this is a turn fold.

Does anyone dispute my reasoning? Does anyone think we can make up 2BB of implied odds?

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

Call the raise. I check call any A or 10 and expect to not win. If we spike a J I am leaning towords C/R.

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

Well i dont think a ten or ace will win it for us, so if they call i'd be check/calling or folding if 2back to me(if things kick off).

If a jack falls i'll C/r the river but as this is the case i'm folding because we don't have outs/odds to continue and even if you can get us to 4outs or so, They're not outs if we lose when hitting them [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

PETER - we're not drawing dead to AJ, we have 3outs to split.

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

[ QUOTE ]
we're not drawing dead to AJ, we have 3outs to split.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know, i wrote "drawing dead to a J" meaning only a J would split it. i will be more concise next time.

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

[ QUOTE ]
how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question and I'll answer yours when you answer mine. J/K. For some reason, his PFR decreases as you get closer to the button and his VPIP stays about the same. From UTG his PFR is 22.8, MP 17.2, CO 14.1, Button 11.1, SB 1.1, BB 7.1. How's that for odd? This strategy has disastrous results for him as his WR UTG is (.40) vs Button .23.

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

Peter, thanks for your reply. I thought this hand would get some more discussion. At first glance it looks like an obvious call. But you are assigning the majority of outs to jacks. If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 

looks like 4-4.5 outs.

J = 2outs (split. If u dont belive it will split then 4)
T = 1 out (possibly 2)
A=1-1.5 outs (maybe less)

==4.5 outs.

Id say u have enough to take off. But wtf do I know late at night and no sleep in ages.

Also Im not so worried about drawing dead here...unless UTG has AJ or J8, I see no worries. SB maybe, but once he calls, looks like u are still drawing live. If thats the case then your T outs are tainted if UTG has a set or something, in which case u lose the T outs but possibly gain more J outs. Anyway, my 2 cents.