Early coinflip math
 

I need your help to convince myself and others on the viability of taking early coinflips / small edges.

I tried searching, but i couldn't find much more than what my logic tells myself, "don't take early coinflips".

Let's say that you always had the chance of, in the first hand of a Party SNG, to take a 55/45 flip, with villain being the dog. Would you take it? If i run ICM calculations our foldEV is naturally 10%, our callEV is 0.55 * 18.44 = 10.142% - higher than the foldEV.

My non-math-based logic tells me that it can't be right to instantly loose 45% of your SNG's in the very first hand. Naturally the elimination of an opponent, and the double startstack will aid you to a higher ITM% and a better ITM distribution, but does it make up for this? Also loosing 45% of your SNG's in the first hand will naturally increase your SNG's/hour drastically, so we might want to give up some ROI for this.

Do we take the "flip"?