Evaluating Outs Revisted
 

Ugly hand. How many outs do you give me on the flop? On the turn? I was in an optimistic mood at the time.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Re: Evaluating Outs Revisted
 

Roughly 4.5 on the flop. (2 for each straight and .5 for the BDFD) On the turn, enough. I think you played this fine.

Re: Evaluating Outs Revisted
 

yea..maybe 4-5 outs. Three for kings, 1 for low end str8 drw, maybe one for flush plus non-diamond king/eight?
Question: on the flop, how is 4.5 outs enough to call the flop raise cold then?
esp since all of the outs (except the kings) we dont know we have the best hand (low implied odds)
interested in your thoughts...
thanks
brian

Re: Evaluating Outs Revisted
 

I'd give equal outs for both straight draws, the Broadway will split far more than the 9 straight is beaten by a better straight.

Re: Evaluating Outs Revisted
 

[ QUOTE ]
Roughly 4.5 on the flop. (2 for each straight and .5 for the BDFD) On the turn, enough. I think you played this fine.

[/ QUOTE ]
How is 4.5 outs enough to call 2 cold on the flop?

This is tough. The K's are good for you. No need to completely discount the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], as it gives us a redraw (A weak one, admittedly) - let's call it 3.5 for the K's. I'm not sure I want to give any outs to the A overcard. An 8 wouldn't be the end of the world. Maybe 2-3 outs for that - we'll call it 2.5. (K9 is certainly possible for CO, but we don't need to assume the worst.) I say 6 outs on the flop.

Our implied odds aren't that great, since a K puts an obvious straight on the board, and an 8 doesn't give us the nuts. Put it all together, and this looks like a fold to me. That's why they call me weak-tight, though.