Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

Actually I don't think a push looks suspicious at all. Wouldn't you push here with an overpair on that board?

In this situation I think the bigger question is what do I think this guy called with in the SB? Do you have much of a read on him? I can't imagine we are ahead here, but if he's got AK or AQ he'll have a hard time calling a big bet. Would he play T9 here?

Personally I check this flop almost every time. Re evaluate after the turn.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

You're about 2 to 1 against making your flush by the river, and you can count your ace as a partial out. you have t360k and the pot is ~t140k. Pot odds dictate you can't fold to a c-r if you bet anything more than ~1/2 pot. Since I can't fold to any reasonable c-r, I like betting the flop between t90k and t120k, with 100k being my first choice.

If Villain c-r, you get all-in on the flop.
If Villain c-calls, checks the turn you have a choice:
-take a free card if you miss
-push if you miss
-check behind if you hit (representing a missed CB)
-bet whatever you think will get the money in the middle if you hit

My personal favorite of these choices is to push the turn if you miss. Firing on two streets against one of the few players who can break you would make me read you for a very big hand, and I expect you have a lot of FE. Of course, for that very reason pushing the turn may be stupid.

If Villain check-calls flop, leads the turn, then I'd let pot odds make the decision for me.

I really hate pushing here, if for no other reason than it looks like missed overs/a draw. I rarely see AA-88 push here.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

[ QUOTE ]
ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I'm using the "probably not posted unless there is something tricky coming" line of thinking.

Still think a check might be correct here.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

When you asked about my plan...

I think I would fold to his push in the heat of battle. I would figure that my bet was basically to test him, he probably has a high pair. With all the discussion of pot odds and such though I realize now that it seems pretty correct to call. The only thing we're super behind here is aces. Evertyhing else villian could have pretty much leaves us with 9+3 outs. Unless Villian has like A9,A8,A7, or Aces.

I think the only argument against a call is that with only 30 people left you could concievably walk away here and still be fairly in the running.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]


I dunno how you could fold here...hope you called and rivered his ass

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

The way you played it, I call, but I'd probably check behind on the flop. I may also have pushed, only because I hate calling allin on a draw.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

I like the open push too. That was my first thought, then checked the stacks to see if it made sense and it does. You're coin-flipping vs a pair. You also fold a lot of pairs. Once he pushes, you obviously call. You've created that pot, for good or ill.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

We have odds to call. So the continuation bet pot-commits us to this push.

I don't know - the problem is that any time villain calls our bet we are behind, and we're going to have a difficult decision on the turn unless we hit our flush.

If we check, it's going to be difficult for Villain to bet into the turn because of the coordinated board and our tight image. And he'll probably bet into a non-flush board on the turn if he has us beat, which gives us an easier decision on the turn.

I think this is enough to make the check the best option. And I'm starting to think a push may be better than the 100k bet.