Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

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I think the question here is are there any arguments against a standard continuation bet, like 2/3 the pot?

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What's the purpose and plan behind this bet?

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

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I generally dont like laying 3/1 odds with this little information on the opponents hand. It is a situation where you are likely to be called by better hands, and worse hands fold.

However, he simply called a possible steal pre-flop, so you cant put him on very much, and his flop check is very risky with a medium-strong hand with that board.

The A may well be good right now and without a draw to the nut flush he's got a very hard time calling a push.

With all of the FE and the flush draw I like the push too.

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OK, so if you called you are probably behind. If you are called by a pair, it is something like 53-47, so you are ahead with pot odds versus folding. If your opponent folds, you pick up 140K chips.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

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Late in the rebuy. I have a tight image (If anyone is paying attention), and have only shown down big hands. No particular read on villian. he is not out of line.

Level XX (10000/20000)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Chief911 (421130 in chips)
Seat 2: ACETEAM55555 (532555 in chips)
Seat 3: jrdowns (329418 in chips)
Seat 4: spacejam08 (237626 in chips)
Seat 6: BREWER_RICK (529570 in chips)
Seat 7: HuntingDucks (279440 in chips)
Seat 8: SicilianDfnc (297742 in chips)
Seat 9: gparker1 (263544 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chief911 [3d Ad]
spacejam08: folds
BREWER_RICK: folds
HuntingDucks: folds
ACETEAM55555 said, "i had a 4 with a 2 kicker"
ACETEAM55555 said, "lol"
SicilianDfnc: folds
gparker1: folds
Chief911: raises 40000 to 60000
ACETEAM55555: calls 50000
Chief911 said, "thats a hot hand"
jrdowns: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 7d 8d]
ACETEAM55555: checks

How do you proceed from here? I'm probably 7th or 8th in overall stack.

Nick

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Trying to force myself to post more. Here we go ...

Curious to know: 1. how many players are left?; 2. had you been taking down pots with continuation bets? This would make a bet look standard for you; 3. had you been stealing (or looked like you were stealing) any blinds?

This looks like a 1/2 to 2/3 pot-sized bet. There's a good chance he folds, we have a nut flush draw and want a nice pot if we hit.

Kinda smells like a set for some reason. JT probably bets into the flush draw.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

I'd play it like I had the overpair my raise could represent - bet 100k. If he CR pushes I'm calling based on the value of my draw, if he calls I know I'm behind and that he's not going anywhere. If I miss the turn and he leads I'm done, if he checks the turn I check behind. I don't like a small continuation bet because it's inconsistent with what I'd expect a hand to do w/ this board and just invites him to make a play at me. I don't like the push as much because if he has a big hand he's inclined to slowplay I don't have a chance get away from my hand when the turn blanks and I'm way behind.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

There were 25 people left at this time.

I had not been pounding people preflop and taking pots with continuations. I had shown down monsters only recently.

Nick

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

I bet 3/4 of the pot here. If he raises I push and if he calls and checks the flop I check behind. If he leads out on the flop I probably fold, but it depends on how much it is to call.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

1) I think you want thou, not thee.

2) Especially if you've been tight, I think firing out a normal 1/2-2/3 pot continuation bet on the flop is fine. The real question is what to do when raised. The connectedness of the board suggests that there are numerous other draws that he could be pushing with here if you bet and he wants to come over the top, so I think that it's conceivable that you could call being ahead, or frequently with 12 instead of 9 outs. So I'm probably betting and calling a push.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

For those who advocate betting and calling a push, then why not just push? Give villain the hard decision.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

Just a thought ...

Is a check really that bad here? The problem with a continuation bet is that we have some tough decisions if he calls. If we bet 100K on the flop, we're left with a 260K stack and a 350K pot. And if he calls on this board, it's too likely that he's ahead. If we miss our flush on the turn, what are we going to do if he checks? How about if he bets?

360K is a good stack, and we should be able to find a better spot to put it all in. I'm just not sure how to evaluate the F/E of a continuation bet on the flop here.

For the record, I'm probably betting 100k in the heat of battle.

Re: 11r, how thee tempts me.
 

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For those who advocate betting and calling a push, then why not just push? Give villain the hard decision.

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I don't think pushing necessarily does a better job of getting better hands out here - anything that this guy is pushing/raising us with on the flop seems like it will probably also call a somewhat fishy looking 2x pot push, particularly on this amazingly draw heavy board. It's also a relatively large deviation from how I'd play most flops, and I try to avoid doing that when possible.