How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

Thought this was worth showing. I'm sure I'll get blasted for doing this with a small BIG stack, but I am an aggressive player:

Two things to learn from this.

First, I was pushing everytime if the little stack folded, with any two cards.

Second, the reason why you don't want to call this bet, even with AK.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2870)
SB (t2200)
BB (t1880)
UTG (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Preflop: BB is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop: (t4750) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG folds, Hero pushes, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: (t4750) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t4750) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4750

Scuba Chuck: "stupid call"
Scuba Chuck: "welcome to 4th place buddy"
Villain: "bs"
Villain: "you're all-in every hand"
Villain: "how's calling with ak stupid"
Scuba_Chuck: "because ur in 4th place"

There was a lot more railbirding following this, but I think you get the picture.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Also, you want to be a little careful exploiting this principle because the Fundamental Theorem Of Poker doesn't apply to SNGs. Just because your opponent calls incorrectly doesn't mean it's good for you.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

Okay, let's do the ICM calcs then. I've never done them for this before, so I'd like to see.

I am going to do them from Villains' point of view.

Fold = 23.5% of prize pool.

Push, win = 48.8% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 0.00% of prize pool

I'll give the benefit that the probability of winning with AK against any range of hands is 70%

Thus Pushing = (.7)(.488) + 0 = 34%

I guess you're right, pushing is the right thing to do, at least according to ICM.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Can you explain how you got these ICM numbers to me?

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

I was running the numbers for specifically those two hands, 62 and AK (of those suits).

The AK equity I got with Pokerstove. The ICM number required to break even you do by creating an equation where x is that number and solving for x.

Let a be ICM equity of folding (as a decimal)
Let b be ICM equity of pushing and winning
Let c be ICM equity of pushing and losing

a = b(x) + c(1-x)

Solve that for x. In this example c is zero, which simplifies things to a = b(x).

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

Handled with true class and dignity. You dont really see the beneficiary of the suckout taunting the loser too often,
its a real treat.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

BTW, I played few 20s with you yesterday Scuba_Chuck. I believe you busted out of one when your AA was cracked.

Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
 

So, on that PARTICULAR hand, you're saying that it was a bad bet for Chuck to play AA?