Two Plus Two Older Archives - Can this be Aces?

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Can this be Aces?

MP3 here is 91/30/1.4. His limp re-raise pre-flop makes Aces a consideration, especially when he keeps 3 betting me.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, MP 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, MP 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets, Hero?

I call the 3 bet flop so that I don't shut him down giving me a chance to raise again on the turn. I don't cap the turn as I am seriously considering that he has Aces. Was I too passive here given that his stats mark him as a LAG player, and should I ALWAYS cap this regardless of the outcome?

Monsters under the bed anyone?

Re: Can this be Aces?

I'd fold preflop. And then I'd put in one more raise.

Re: Can this be Aces?

I cap flop, cap turn and if he still bets into you on the river I call. You have SB beat here 100% of the time. I think that makes up for the times that he has Aces.

Re: Can this be Aces?

I cap flop and turn...you are making money off the other two in the hand.

I'm also concerned about MP because he has bet into the field on all three streets.

Re: Can this be Aces?

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I'd fold preflop.

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Yep a slightly loose call but I knew both blinds were coming and thought I could easily make it up from the button if I hit my set.

Re: Can this be Aces?

As I look at this more, I'm also 3 betting preflop.

Re: Can this be Aces?

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 here is 91/30/1.4. His limp re-raise pre-flop makes Aces a consideration, especially when he keeps 3 betting me.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, MP 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, MP 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets, Hero?

I call the 3 bet flop so that I don't shut him down giving me a chance to raise again on the turn. I don't cap the turn as I am seriously considering that he has Aces. Was I too passive here given that his stats mark him as a LAG player, and should I ALWAYS cap this regardless of the outcome?

Monsters under the bed anyone?

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Against normal players I fold preflop as the best we can hope for is 50-50 with the usual 3-bet range. Since villian is a super-lag preflop & raises more hands than I call with preflop, I might consider capping to try & isolate MP - this is read dependent, some players raise with junk but won't 3-bet with AA, KK, AK, QQ, JJ ... then again he might 3-bet with 7s or A10.

That said I cap the flop and turn then call a river bet. His AF isn't ridiculous enough to cap the river and it appears there is only 1 hand that can beat you (2 by the turn). If AF < 1 my line would be to cap the flop, raise turn & call down from 3-bets onward.

EDIT:
My mistake, his AF is more ridiculous than previously thought.

Re: Can this be Aces?

Well there are two thoughts that occur to me. First is that although villain's aggression is only 1.4, his VPIP is 91%, so he actually plays pretty aggressively, right? Does anyone know how a 1.4 AF on a 91% VPIP equates to an AF for a 25% VPIP player?

Two, it's definitely not monsters under the bed to think aces here. He doesn't think you're going to fold and he's still raising, which means he thinks he's got you beat. So I don't think calling down is too weak. I guess AK is possible, but my guess is AA is more likely.

Unless he's really terrible instead of just really loose...

Re: Can this be Aces?

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His AF isn't ridiculous enough to cap the river and it appears there is only 1 hand that can beat you (2 by the turn).

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I gotta disagree with you here...an AF of 1.4 when he plays 90% of all hands is mighty high indeed. If you don't believe me try it sometime.

Re: Can this be Aces?

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His AF isn't ridiculous enough to cap the river and it appears there is only 1 hand that can beat you (2 by the turn).

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I gotta disagree with you here...an AF of 1.4 when he plays 90% of all hands is mighty high indeed. If you don't believe me try it sometime.

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My bad .. you are right.