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-   -   flopping the nuts and folding?? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=154869)

bigmac366 11-29-2004 12:26 PM

flopping the nuts and folding??
 
i recently read championship omaha by T.J. cloutier and Tom Mcevoy. in the sections on pot limit omaha, they said that in certain situations it is the correct play to fold the nuts on the flop. say you hold(QQxx) and the flop is Q J 2 with 2 diamonds. you have the best possible hand, but if an opponent has a wrap straight draw you are a underdog or even money at best. if another opponent has a flush draw to go with his wrap straight it gets even worse. the book advocates folding. any comments?

nicky g 11-29-2004 12:38 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
The book is dumb if it really says that. Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right. The time to fold the nuts is when you have a nut straight and it looks like someone else may have it with you and they or someone else has other outs. For example, imagine you have a bare 76 on a 5 8 9 flop with two spades and there is a bet and ar aise before you. Your hand can't improve, is probably shared by someone else and is very unlikely to remain the nuts on the river. The QQ is totally different because your hand cannot be shared by someone else and has a very good chance of improving even if someone does outdraw you.

Cleveland Guy 11-29-2004 12:42 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
Let's do a little assumption here, just to demonstrate.

Lets assume the Board is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

If your opponenet has K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Then he would have the 8 Diamonds as outs (J gives you a full house).

He would also have the 3 not Diamond Aces, the 3 Kings, 2 Tens, 2 nines, and 3 Eights.

So he now has 21 Outs 2 Times Over.

This is still a hard fold on the flop, but if you are last to act, and one player has the flush draw, and the other a wrap, and you see a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise, if you are just holding a naked set it might be time to get out.

This is very tricky with top set, with middle or bottom set, it's an easy fold.

Cleveland Guy 11-29-2004 12:49 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
I don't think it's that dumb, but I think it's rare you would do this.

I was playing in an 8 person PLO game. and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.

I was in the cutoff - the pot had been raised by a MP, and called by 3 other players, including the BB. I have played with both of them before, and knew they were experienced and winning PLO low limit players.

On the Flop the BB opened for pot (~$12). The MP then re-raised Pot. At this point I was pretty sure I was up against the following (between the 2 of them)

A Nut Flush Draw(probably containing AA), and a good wrap with another high pair (Like QQ). So even though I was ahead on the flop, I didn't want to call that much with my 9s, as I had little change to improve. I knew a raise would be called by the second player at least as I only had about $55 at the table at the time. And I was pretty sure that the BB might call too if he had what I thought he had.

nicky g 11-29-2004 01:06 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
"He would also have the 3 not Diamond Aces, the 3 Kings, 2 Tens, 2 nines, and 3 Eights.

So he now has 21 Outs 2 Times Over.

This is still a hard fold on the flop, but if you are last to act, and one player has the flush draw, and the other a wrap, and you see a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise, if you are just holding a naked set it might be time to get out."

I'm sorry, this wrong. It is -EV to fold here, even if you are a dog to win the pot. If you get it all-in you;re getting better than 2:1, which is roughly your odds to improve, never mind the fact that you may not have to. Furthermore, how could you ever put people on hands that precisely?

"with middle set it's an easy fold"

Because with a raise and a reraise it looks like someone has top set in addition to the fact that there are big draw out there. If you knew you were up against just draws that didn't block any of your fullhouse outs, folding would be wrong.

flawless_victory 11-29-2004 01:06 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
[ QUOTE ]
and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.


[/ QUOTE ]you are weak tight

nicky g 11-29-2004 01:11 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
This is a terrible fold. Here is your nightmare scenario:

Twodimes

You still have by far the most equity. If the BB calls, all the better - most of the draws are already contested between the other two, so his money simply gives you better pot odds.

LA_Price 11-29-2004 01:14 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
folding top set on a QJ2 board or in your 9987 example is just plain wrong. In your example you're getting 2:1 which just happens to be the chance that you'll fill up by the river in two cards(well a little less since you have one of your 8's). Oh and did i mention you have the best hand! Take a look at the ev on your nightmare scenario

pokenum -o 9c 9s 8h 7h - as ad 6d 2s - 7d td js qs -- 9d 8d 3c
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 3c 9d 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 8h 7h 253 37.99 413 62.01 0 0.00 0.380
As 2s Ad 6d 164 24.62 502 75.38 0 0.00 0.246
Qs Js Td 7d 249 37.39 417 62.61 0 0.00 0.374

This is your absolute worst scenario and you still have the best equity. You can pass in this situation if you like but I for one will happily raise all in.

nicky g 11-29-2004 01:18 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
Here is your nightmare scenario for this hand. Again, you have the most EV. Heads up against the monster wrap/flush draw, you are a slight dog, but you still can't fold given pot odds.

Cleveland Guy 11-29-2004 01:25 PM

Re: flopping the nuts and folding??
 
Okay,

I see where my fold is wrong. Thank you for pointing it out, but I guess I was a victom of the same book.


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