Re: A hand I really liked...
 

Bet the river. Any kind of meh hand is going to check behind but these same hands might call again to defend against a busted draw. He might even bluff-raise you here some of the time as well if he has really low hearts.

Checking really doesn't make a whole lot of sense here imo, and god I hate that stupid button drop at LC [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Brad

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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Yeah. I agree Josh. I can see sooo many more hands here that I believe call a bet than hands that either value bet or bluff when checked to.

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for the record, i was never arguing this....

i simply said c/calling or betting made more sense to me than c/raising, not that c/calling was better than betting. i simply think c/calling is at least reasonable, because bakku might bluff with a missed flush.

josh doesn't think he could possibly have a missed flush, and that's the point we're arguing now.

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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but right now you can make a break-even raise for the minimal cost of getting jason to fold a hand he checked from EP but will call with, which is near none, with the advantage of giving you some leverage that might get you the pot.

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this is a good argument.

i still think the advantage you describe is (at least partially) counterbalanced by the times you get 3-bet by dave and by the equity you lose out on from jason, which you correctly estimate as very low. but i think you've convinced me that raising is clearly better there. however, i'm still not convinced that nearly everyone would raise there.

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

Are you still in the bay area/

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

Yeah, and I think a missed draw of some sort is possible. Although I agree with Josh that it's certainly less likely given the flop play. But possible. I don't think the value Dave gains by getting a missed draw to bluff here comes close to the missed value when small pairs that would have called check behind. If it's 50% likely he would raise a draw on the flop he might only be 50% likely to bluff at the pot on the end and whatever the chances of a draw are they're probably less than the chances of a worse one pair hand.

I don't think there is a lot of value in a raise either...which is what your saying. He does fold a lot of the worse hands anyway. But given the check, I don't mind a raise if he does bet it.

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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But given the check, I don't mind a raise if he does bet it.

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and actually, given dave's reputation and his historical ownings of bakku with insane bluffs, bakku might pay off a c/r with a worse pair. but this is very specific to dave and to their dynamic, and i still maintain that in general a c/r here is pretty bad.

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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I'm still not convinced that nearly everyone would raise there.

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by nearly everyone I assume Josh means anyone who plays well, and I include you in that category. Yes I agree a free card play is hard to execute against Dave, but the raise is as much for value as it is for strategic reasons with the 2 unknowns and Jason T behind him.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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I'm still not convinced that nearly everyone would raise there.

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by nearly everyone I assume Josh means anyone who plays well, and I include you in that category. Yes I agree a free card play is hard to execute against Dave, but the raise is as much for value as it is for strategic reasons with the 2 unknowns and Jason T behind him.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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TT,

We were looking at it from bakku's POV and on the flop, and assuming that there was only 1 limper and dave. so unless you think there is some chance jason_t coldcalls, it cannot be for value. it's pretty much an even bet.

as josh pointed out, what you gain is fold equity on later streets, and i see this as the primary reason a raise is superior to a call. but i still don't think the difference in EV is so big that any decent player always raises here.

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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I'm still not convinced that nearly everyone would raise there.

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by nearly everyone I assume Josh means anyone who plays well, and I include you in that category. Yes I agree a free card play is hard to execute against Dave, but the raise is as much for value as it is for strategic reasons with the 2 unknowns and Jason T behind him.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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TT,

We were looking at it from bakku's POV and on the flop, and assuming that there was only 1 limper and dave. so unless you think there is some chance jason_t coldcalls, it cannot be for value. it's pretty much an even bet.

as josh pointed out, what you gain is fold equity on later streets, and i see this as the primary reason a raise is superior to a call. but i still don't think the difference in EV is so big that any decent player always raises here.

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Flop is Th 6h 3c. Check, I bet, a caller or two, bukkake calls on the button, jason_t folds. I read that to mean 2 players... at that point I see value in the raise. Yes the fold equity gained is valuable, but so is the increased size of the pot. But I see your point if its just one player, its margional that can now be played either way.

Anyway, sorry for the distraction because this isn't really what the hand was about, I was just surprised by your statement, I think it had to do with a difference in reading Dave's explanation.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: A hand I really liked...
 

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I think the river check screams missed hearts and that he'll bet any hand he has. bukkake ain't D-U-M and there ain't a stereo in sight.

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why would he bet here unless he thinks you'll call with missed hearts? there's just no point.

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You never bluff a busted draw when you suspect your opponent also missed, the pot is 5-7 BBs and you have zero showdown value?