Two Plus Two Older Archives - JJ

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- - JJ - flop all-in call (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403519)

JJ - flop all-in call

I had a meaningless preflop stats read, nothing else against this guy. FWIW, he bought in for $50. I reasoned that my heart outs are good 50% of the time against a higher PP, and he could be donking it with AK-AQ, and so I called. FU Party poker for not having a timebank.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($60)
UTG ($149.65)
UTG+1 ($104.90)
MP1 ($119)
MP2 ($99.15)
MP3 ($98.80)
Hero ($189.60)
Button ($105.40)
SB ($120.58)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, BB raises to $9, MP1 calls $6, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $35, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $50, BB calls $15 (all-in).

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I'm pretty sure he has AA/KK here. However, if he has no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (50%) you are looking ok with 14 outs. If he does have [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] though you are sitting on 6 outs. I guess if you think he has AK/AQ sometimes it might be ok, but I don't think he's even bothering to bet this flop without either A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a pair, so I would just lay down.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I don't think you're ahead here very often, but as long as he's not holding a larger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have a pretty nice draw. Why no reraise pf?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I think it's most likely a coin-flip at best or your dominated at worst. If your two assumptions are valid (ie your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good 50% of the time and he will make this play with hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] some non trivial percent of the time) it's very close IMO.

Considering only overpair with heart / no heart it's slightly worse than a coin flip if the distribution is 50/50:

15,107,211 games 16.056 secs 940,907 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.5234 % 48.22% 00.30% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 51.4766 % 51.17% 00.30% { JdJh }

---

16,534,511 games 17.106 secs 966,591 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.0963 % 78.79% 00.30% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 20.9037 % 20.60% 00.30% { JdJh }

---

You're average equity is 36% or needing approx 2.78:1 to push.

If your FE is zero (which it likely is), you're getting 130:50 to push approx 2.6:1, so you're not quite there.

Now if we consider he makes this with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even 10% of the time you're now breaking even:

10,930,720 games 12.437 secs 878,887 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.8152 % 43.51% 00.30% { AhKc }
Hand 2: 56.1848 % 55.88% 00.30% { JdJh }

Equity = .45(case 1) + .45(case2) + .1(case3)
= .45(51.5) + .45(20.5) + .1(55.9)
= 23.175 + 9.225 + 5.59
= 37.99 or approx 2.63:1 to push.

So if he does this 10% of the time with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're now at zero sum EV.

I probably call this in the heat of the moment but it's very close, and much depends upon if your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] really is good 50% of the time and he's willing to do this without an overpair. If he's got both you're in bad shape.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

He only has 15 left.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

just a question for you guys - do you attempt to make estimates at these odds equations in your head during the hand?

i know it isnt so hard to sit down and think about it, but youve got a hot 20 seconds max to act.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $35, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $50, BB calls $15 (all-in).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the fact that BB overbet makes it very very easy for him to have AA no heart. I'm calling with 14 outs and dead money.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

He only has 15 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Mostly it's the 4 on the flop / 2 on the turn rule for counting outs. Perhaps Rainman could do this PokerStove during a hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Main decision here is how often the heart outs are good. If they're good half the time, this is a toss up. Add that to the chance he's donking with overs + one heart and you can talk yourself into a call.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I'm thinking, I've put 9 in, do I really want to risk 50 more when I compare, 1) my J flush draw w inside str8 draw w overpair to, 2) his possible, a) overpair w heart dominating me or, b) higher flush draw?

I don't really work the outs in this case as either I'm way behind or flipping a coin thus I fold. If I'm drawing to a nut then yeah, I run the odds in my head as best I can.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I think the point isn't to do the calculations in your head when you are sitting there in the heat of battle. The idea is to do the calculations off line (as we are now) so the next time you are in a similar situation you can make the right decision without doing the calculations.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

agreed - although im sure there are some people who are odds masters and just crunch that [censored] like a computer [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

You really don't need to do exact calculations at the table. If a situation appears close then what you do will have very little effect on your longterm result either way.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Out of curiousity, how'd that raise happen, when you raise a $35 bet to $50? Don't you have to raise to $60 there?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I had a similar situation, though it was less clear cut; I raised him (at the same time pot-committing myself) and he moved in and I had to call a little more. Turns out he had KK with no heart draw. I think overcards with no heart are very rare here, given his flop bet.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Surely this is a fold here? You've only put $9 into the pot, why risk $50 more when the best you can hope for is a coinflip and you could very easily be dominated.

I know that the calculations suggest the EV is pretty much zero, butg in the heat of the battle and no exact calculations, I fold this. And even with calculations, do you want to risk half a buy-in on a zero EV move?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Does no one here think that BB already has a baby flush and is overbetting to protect it? That's what I'm putting him on right now and I'd have to fold...