New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Okay, I bet alot of CBB, very profitably for the past 3-4 years. I've posted hundreds of picks here, particularly in 2003 and 2004, and done very well taking a lot of dogs particularly during March Madness and conference play.
I follow a lot of conferences, but you can't follow all of them closely, and some favorites have to be good bets, so...
A few friends and I were discussing various simple betting systems recently - for other conferences - and we started using the following system as an adjunct to our regular betting:

1) We bet home teams favored by less than 5 pts
2) No big 'rivalry' matchups, however.
3) We exclude matchups with both teams in the top 25.

Essentially, we feel that 'home court advantage' is under-rated by the general public.
However, in top 25 matchups where there is a lot of focus and also for rivalry games, i.e. Duke-UNC, LV-UK, Cinci-Xavier, people also focus on the value of home court advantage, so we toss those out also.

So far, it has been wildly [unsustainably] successful. 21-5-1.
Here were last week's picks:
Game #1: Providence (3 point favorite) against Northeastern. - Providence was down 3 points at half-time but then scored the first 21 points in the 2nd half and ended up winning by 22.
Game #2: Northern Illinois (2 point favorite) against Kansas St. - No. Illinois won by 5 in OT.
Game #3: Arkansas Little-Rock (4.5 point favorite) against Appalachian St. - Arkansas LR won by 15.
Game #4: UTEP (4.5 point favorite) against Pacific. UTEP ended up winning by 6.
Game #5: San Diego (4 point favorite) against Loyola Chicago. - San Diego won 33!

We went 5-0 with help in OT [which favors the home squad also.]

Here's our possible next 3 picks tonite:
CENTRAL FLORIDA 1 Sam Houston
AUSTIN PEAY 3½ Evansville
[if drops below 5]
EASTERN KENTUCKY 5 Tenn. Martin


Reactions and thoughts appreciated. No, I don't expect to end up 210-50-10, but I'd take 200-165.

Naj [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

What about youngstown St-2.5 against james madison?

I do like Central Florida -2 tonight.

Ken

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

caveats:
When the visiting team was initially favored, but is now a Pick 'em, we do not bet.
When the home team was favored, and is now Even, we do bet - again, because we feel HC advantage is being undervalued.

added game:
YSU -3 JMU.

Naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Important note:

Central Florida is not at home. That game is being played in Tucson, Arizona.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

have you been using this general approach for 3-4 years as well..?

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

good catch, I avoided after checking yhaoo before betting.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

WMMary also covered tonite, I bet that one but did not post as it was not on the first site I checked, but was on SIA.
Still have Peay and YSU remaining tonite.
Naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

2-1 Tonite, Austin Peay missed by a half a point. 23-6-1.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Big card, 8 games tonite.

OSU -3 Tenn
Emich -1.5
Temple -3
UAB -2
SD -4
St Mary's -3.5
Santa Clara - 2.5
Montana St -3

23-6-1 YTD games, I've been betting 2 units per.

Naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Ok State/Tenn is neutral court.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Thanks very much NajorDefense! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

5-2 tonite, one game not included as didn't fit the criteria as previously mentioned.

YTD 28-8-1. + 39.6 units.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

I don't consider Stillwater, OK a neutral court for Tenny, but that's just me. I'm counting the win.

best,

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 30-8-1
 

Cinci and Iowa St both covered 2.5 pts last night. Chalk up two more wins. Off to check today's lines.
naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

hey; happy holidays naj:

funny about your "home team; non-top team" method;

there is no doubt that this year it has been fantastic; on another site; the person running the season-long cfb gow piks thread(s) also started giving college hoops plays: he essentially stated that he stayed away from top team games and tourney games; played home teams of less than dd spreads; and he had a fantastic spread..

college hoops have traditionally had a tremendous amount of home-cookin'; and some of this dates back to the old :band-bax" ; or small, crowded courts; where visiting teams and refs clearly were intimidated as the fans were right on em...

lol

now; the top teams generallly have mega-seating arenas; where this advantage has been diminished (sometimes; lol)

so really; early in the season; especially; where teams do not have as much experience; and playing smalller schools under the radar at home in more intimate settings:

hey; this should win a lotta cash

jmho

gr8 thinking as usual

happy holidays

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

The Oklahoma State- Tenn game was in Oklahoma City at the Ford Center. It was part of the All College Classic.

Home court advantage was for OSU, but mild, as a decent percentage of the crowd were OU fans (played West Virginia after the OSU-Tenn game)

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 30-8-1
 

Cincy wasn't a home game, it was beingn played in LV for the LV Classic.

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Scalfie! Where ya been, buddy? Steak and lobster so far this month, hope it continues!
Again, I just think the betting pub undervalues this advantage, plus you have the 'home-cookin' advantage as often seen at Dook, UConn, MichSt, Zona, etc.

best,

Naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

correct, I will net Cinci out. I am still including OK St playing in Stillwater v UTenn, however.

Naj

Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
 

Thanks for your insights!

Do you think the long-term EV would be much different if you bet all the same games on the moneyline?

Also, are the home favorites of 2.5 to 4.5 any more likely to cover than those favored under 2.5?