What do you think of my play
 

Sorry don't have the hand history in front me so here is the story version.

.5/1 Party, I am OTB with Ac 2c 3x 7x. 4 limpers to me, and I raise, both blinds and everyone else calls.

Flop (6 handed, 12SB): Ad 8c 9s. Checks around to the CO who bets. CO is a real fish. He plays and shows down almost every hand so he have given about 25BB to the table in the last 1/2 hour. Because the better is so bad I think about a raise to isolate but decide the pot is too big to give people bad odds to draw. I decide to pull to try and draw people in for my low draw. I call so do 3 others.

Turn (5 players, 8.5BB): 10c. I just picked up the nut flush draw to go with my nut low draw. SB bets. SB is a decent (not great) player but hasn't gotten excessively out of line yet so I am guessing that he just made his str8. LP1 calls (another total fish), CO calls and I raise. UTG 3 bets, yep he made his str8, both fish call, and I cap. Everyone calls.

River (4 players, 24.5BB): 2s. Doh. SB bets, 1 fish calls, one fish folds. I make a crying calls with my weasly low and a 2 pair that I am pretty sure isn't good.

I think that I played this hand pretty well but the last time I posted a hand that I thought I played well I got cut apart [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. All streets are open for suggestions / criticism.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

I don't think raising with nothing is a good idea when you know that it won't fold anyone. I understand you are trying to make the pot big but I don't think that's the right idea. This is a semi-bluff raise because you don't have anything at the moment. I think it would pay if you had a chance to fold the others, which means i'd do it heads-up or perhaps in a 3-way pot if I had a wild hair.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think raising with nothing is a good idea when you know that it won't fold anyone. I understand you are trying to make the pot big but I don't think that's the right idea. This is a semi-bluff raise because you don't have anything at the moment. I think it would pay if you had a chance to fold the others, which means i'd do it heads-up or perhaps in a 3-way pot if I had a wild hair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually - the worst thing about the raise, is your position to the original raiser.

If you think he has the straight, he should be 3-betting here, charging the low draws and flush draw the max to hit on him.

Your raise - will lead to his re-raise when he has the made straight - and now you are forcing everyone to call 2 more bets - which would make them more likely to fold.

You are closing action here - it's a good place to call, and then play the river accordingly - and put in your raise on the made low/made nut flush.

I think you really lost 2 bets here - cause the fold is easier on the river when you didn't raise the turn.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

Preflop: good raise

Flop: call. I would never raise -- you have no high as TP weak kicker will not be besthold up.

Turn: Capping it seems slightly more EV than just calling but not by alot, so good. But expect higher variance.

River: getting 26:1 I can't argue for a fold. But I think its close.

So I'd have played it the same! Nice hand, sir.
-g

Re: What do you think of my play
 

You only have 7 clean outs to scoop with a flush, and 11 outs to the nut low. 18 outs total - so 59% of the time you will lose your whole bet. 7 times you will scoop - 16% 11 times you will take half 25%

With four opponents

EVbet= (-1)(.59)+4(.16)+1.5(.25)=.425 bets So your bet is +EV if you don't get quartered. 1/5 of the time you hit the low.... You still are + 0.25 bets.

If you only get 3 callers you are neutral EV.

Unless I really hose my EV calc, it looks like a good bet, which surprises me.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

Good point on if they'd fold the turn. If they do, then the raise is bad -- but they ARE fish after all [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I will say that my natural inclination on the turn was to call not raise. But I do think the math works out such that if both will call then its a good raise.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

I guess if you want to add in that raising the turn is going to make you call one more bet x% of the time which you will lose x% of the time you can, which makes the raise much more neutral.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

The only reason I raised was because there were 2 fish in the hand that I assumed would call even for a 3 bet. If there were 2 rocks sitting over there I would have flat called.

There is also a chance that SB will just call my raise either because he didn't have the str8 or because he is a passive player. If he flat calls the fish will definitely come along and I have position on everyone for the river.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

Here are my numbers

Call:
I am assuming that there will be 3BB put in on the river.
15BB total of which I put in 2.
Scoop: (.16)(15) = 2.4
1/2: (.25)(7.5) = 1.88
Lose: (.58)(-1) = -.58
Total EV: 3.7

Raise 0 Fishy callers:
Assuming that I would only call the 3 bet the pot would be 20BB of which I put in 5.
Scoop: (.16)(20) = 3.2
1/2: (.25)(10) = 2.5
Lose: (.58)(-4) = -2.3
Total EV: 3.4

Raise 1 Fishy caller:
Assuming that fishy caller would call a cap and a bet on the river the pot would be 23BB of which I put in 6.
Scoop: (.16)(23) = 3.68
1/2: (.25)(11.5) = 2.88
Lose: (.58)(-5) = -2.9
Total EV: 3.66

Raise 2 Fishy caller:
Assuming that both fishy caller would call a cap and 1 fishy caller would call river bet the pot would be 27BB of which I put in 6.
Scoop: (.16)(27) = 4.32
1/2: (.25)(13.5) = 3.38
Lose: (.58)(-5) = -2.9
Total EV: 4.8

If we say that 25% of the time I get 2 fishy callers 25% of the time I get 0 fishy callers and 50% of the time I get 1 fishy caller
Total EV = (.25)(3.4) + (.25)(4.8) + (.5)(3.66) = 3.88

Looks like Greg hit it right not the nose. The raise looks to be slightly +EV over a call (unless I messed up somewhere in my math).

The raise will also have a small –EV bump because it is more likely that I will make a crying call in a larger pot. However I think that is very minimal because a good crying call should be +EV. In other words if I win a crying call in the large pot I will win larger then in a small pot.

Re: What do you think of my play
 

The only reason I thought about a flop raise was the CO was BAD. If I could get HU with him I have position and I though there was a decent chance I was ahead of him for the high. He was that bad.

One of my leaks is I overvalue good but not great hands against very weak players. He had been giving money to everyone at the table and I was thinking this could be a good chance to exploit him. Maybe that face that I even considered a raise here was a case of this leak showing its ugly head.