Two Plus Two Older Archives - LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

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LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

With this week's brutal showing against Kansas City, LaDanian Tomlinson will most likely finish the year with only 5 100 yard rushing games and only 6 games with a YPC over 4, including games of 17 for 7 yards (week 7 @ PHI) and 19 for 52 yards (Week 2 @ DEN)

I don't think anyone doubts LaDanian's abilities, but let's be honest here. This is the second year in a row LaDanian's been injured and it's limited his effectiveness. People preach "give the ball to LaDanian" and "Tomlinson = win" but let's be realistic. Running backs take tons of punishment and giving the ball to one running back 400 times/year is not a great way to keep your star healthy

It's not really a knock on Tomlinson if he can't consistently stay healthy after getting the ball 375 times/year for six years; the only guys that have really been able to do that are guys like Emmitt.

For the last two years, San Diego backups Jesse Chatman and Michael Turner have rushed for 6.0 YPC while only getting about 60 touches apiece. Is it such a stretch to think that increasing the touches of Michael Turner and keeping LaDanian to around 300/year that LaDanian could stay healthy and increase his effectiveness? Sure, he might rush for a couple hundred yards less but every time Tomlinson touches the ball there's an increased chance that he takes an awkard fall or his knee gets McGahee'd, not to mention just general wear and tear.

Running backs have incredibly short careers. Those that have the fortune not to surfer career ending injuries lose their knees. Giving the ball so much to any running back is insane. Not only do you increase their chance of injury, you decrease their effectiveness.

I'm not arguing for Tomlinson to split time with Michael Turner or anything, but it really doesn't make sense to give LaDanian much more than 300 touches per year. Around that barrier, RBs start to tire out and lose their effectiveness.

For evidence, let's look at Edgerrin James. In his first 7 games (182 touches) he was only held to under 4 yards/carry once - 3.8 ypc in the opener against Baltimore.

His last 8 games (222 touches) he's averaged less than 4ypc 6 times, including the last 4 games of 3.8, 3.1, 1.9, and 3.2 ypc. He last had 4 ypc was against Pittsburgh in Week 12 - the game that put him at roughly 300 touches for the season. (Please note that his DPAR numbers, DVOA, etc have dropped as well, it's just easier to use ypc to make my case).

Running backs should be seen somewhat as starting pitchers who can come back into the game. If you could swap your starter with a reliever at anytime, you'd probably bring in the reliever to face really easy batters and save your pitcher's arm so he could face more of the tough batters. Then once he gets to around 100-120 pitches for the day, he comes out. You might keep him in longer if it's really necessary, but most coaches follow that guideline (Dusty, I'm lookin' at you).

Of course the analogy isn't perfect, but running backs get tired just like pitchers do. To expect them to touch the ball 375, 400, or in cases like Ricky Williams, 450 times a year and keep their effectiveness you're going to be disappointed. I think we can see that in the last two years of LaDanian Tomlinson.