It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

There was a lot of discussion about this section of SSH in the Microlimit forum a few months ago. It was rather amusing to see so many 'wait until the turn' threads on the front page. Aaron W. posted a compendium of sorts, which can be found here.

As the Two Overpairs section of SSH was something that I felt I failed to adequately grasp, I studied all of the threads Aaron W. linked to.

Today I found myself in a position where I had the opportunity to (probably) completely misapply this concept. Let me know if I'm still missing something here (i.e. the pot is not big enough for this concept to apply).

Reads:
BB's play is very easy to read. He raises when he has a big hand PF, otherwise he limps. He ALWAYS bets out if he has TP on the flop, and I have never seen him bet out with a draw.
Button is a CS.

My raise on the turn is for value. My thinking was that BB has TP, and I think he has 5 or 6 outs (5 if he's drawing to two pair, 6 if he just picked up an OESD (since I have two nines)). I do not feel the argument of 'he led the turn again, so now you're behind a bigger overpair...' is valid. That does not fit my read of this player. He would have raised PF with most hands that I would be behind (TT+). Button appears to have not yet hit his flush draw, but he could have overcards. I think Button would raise if he just caught his straight, so when he just calls again, I think I'm ahead, and my equity has just skyrocketed.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

River: (10 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

I rais this preflop, but i think it's close

You have to protect you hand on the flop and rais to many bad turns may come

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

The big problem here in my mind is that you're letting overcards (of which there are many) draw for free. You didn't mention anything about BB's play on the turn - i.e. will he bet again with TP. All of these 'waiting for the turn' plays are typically with position.

In your hand, you should raise preflop and bet the flop, turn, and river.

EDIT: BTW, what is a 'CS'?

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

I think it's a calling station.

You have to bet this flop. The pot is small, and a single bet protects your hand well. The times for this play are when you are IP and and EP player bets into a field of callers.

I agree that I usually raise preflop, but in a spot like this, calling isn't too bad.

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

[ QUOTE ]

You have to bet this flop. The pot is small, and a single bet protects your hand well. The times for this play are when you are IP and and EP player bets into a field of callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, that was obvious. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that I usually raise preflop, but in a spot like this, calling isn't too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right - it's close. But against an UTG limper, a calling station, and the BB, this should probably be a raise. Against tighter players preflop, it's much closer.

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

numeri, Wookie's right, CS = calling station. Sorry that wasn't clear since it's important to the read.

As for my read on BB, I should have also said that he will continue to bet his TP on the turn if no one shows aggression, regardless of the turn card. I saw enough hands where this occurred that I was confident he would bet the turn for me, even with a marginal holding. That is why I thought I'd be able to trap the whole field for two on the turn.

I realize that raising PF is the 'default' play here, and by not doing so, I give up some EV. But by under-representing my hand I think that I am able to regain that EV and more when the flop hits me (e.g. misses everyone else). I felt like I could get more value out of the hand by just limping PF, given the soft table. I would be interested to hear your thoughts in that regard.

At the time, I felt that I could build a much larger pot than if I had just raised PF and bet every street. Now I see that it is closer than I thoght.

Preflop: I raise, everyone calls (a reasonable assumption), for 8 SB
Flop: I bet, BB and Button call, making it 11 SB.
I do not know if UTG would have called here, I believe he would have folded if I had shown that much strength.
Turn: I bet, BB and Button call, making it 8.5 BB.
River: I bet, BB calls, Button folds a busted flush or overcard draw, maing it 10.5 BB

The pot was 12 BB as I played it, so even if UTG calls the flop, that still leaves the raise, bet, bet, bet line one BB shy of the line I took.

So I guess my question is, assuming my line is worth 1 BB more, how appreciable a difference is that, given that I can't assume that BB will hit the flop enough to bet it for me, etc.?

Re: It must be \'Two Overpairs\' Time
 

I think raising preflop is good, but just calling isn't bad, probably a toss up. UTG could be limping with 2 big cards (how passive is he? If he's real aggressive or LAG, his limp could mean he's got junk) and raising to thin the field with a vulnerable hand is good, but it's not gauranteed in this case.

I think you have to bet the flop. Your hand is vulnerable to overcards, and it's going to really suck to give something like J2 a free look at the turn if it gets checked through, when he 'might' have folded for a bet on the flop.

The way the hand worked out was nice, but I probably wouldn't play 99 this way too often on a low flop.

Now if you know that BB is like always going to bet, I like a flop C/R and get as much in when you're ahead. Sure, it bloats the pot for drawing hands, but I really don't think these guys think about those things.

Just my 2cents.