Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

I am trying to figure out if my experience multi-tabling is normal. Since mid-July, I have played 200,000 hands. In that time, I had a 215, 250, and 315 bb downswings, while maintaining a solid WR and standard deviation of 15.1 bb/100. This is the first time I have logged this many hands in such a short period. Should swings like this be expected on a consistent basis? I'm thinking that they are unlikely, and I must be playing bad when I am losing without realizing it, but I am curious to see what other people think.

Thanks- alex

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am trying to figure out if my experience multi-tabling is normal. Since mid-July, I have played 200,000 hands. In that time, I had a 215, 250, and 315 bb downswings, while maintaining a solid WR and standard deviation of 15.1 bb/100. This is the first time I have logged this many hands in such a short period. Should swings like this be expected on a consistent basis? I'm thinking that they are unlikely, and I must be playing bad when I am losing without realizing it, but I am curious to see what other people think.

Thanks- alex

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not very good, but I also play a lot of hands, and the graph below is an anomaly, at least for me.

Keep on truckin' dude.

http://img50.imageshack.us/img50/2473/two300s1yv.jpg

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

"Normal" swing sizes have a lot to do with winrate, as well as SD.

Without doing any calculations, I'm guessing that these swings are nothing unusual for a true winrate in the 1-2BB/100 range, but out of the ordinary for a true winrate in the 3+BB/100 range.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

ive logged around 200k hands online and have 2 250BB downswings with a couple 200BB downswings. i would imagine that its pretty common to have such swings over this hand range. so many posters have 300BB downswings under their belts, and many havent even logged 200k hand. i think these swings should be common.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

That's pretty normal man. In my 300ish k hands this year I've had like 3 250bb drops or so, as well as a 28k breakeven streak and a 32k breakeven streak. Totally normally.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's pretty normal man. In my 300ish k hands this year I've had like 3 250bb drops or so, as well as a 28k breakeven streak and a 32k breakeven streak. Totally normally.

[/ QUOTE ]

dont you play very high limits? your variance at 30/60 or higher, whatever it is doesnt really apply to 2/4.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's pretty normal man. In my 300ish k hands this year I've had like 3 250bb drops or so, as well as a 28k breakeven streak and a 32k breakeven streak. Totally normally.

[/ QUOTE ]

dont you play very high limits? your variance at 30/60 or higher, whatever it is doesnt really apply to 2/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you're right there is probably more variance at the higher limits cause they're more aggressive...but still it's the same game with the same suckouts and bad luck.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you're right there is probably more variance at the higher limits cause they're more aggressive...but still it's the same game with the same suckouts and bad luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a difference in your SD/100 for 30/60 compared to 100/200+?

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

x2... was this graph all at one limit? You broke even for your first 63k hands. That must be brutal.

Re: Swing question for people who play lots of hands
 

[ QUOTE ]
x2... was this graph all at one limit? You broke even for your first 63k hands. That must be brutal.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first 30,000 hands or so were at $5/$10 full. I dropped down to $3/$6 full after the first 250BBs of the downswing, and incurred another 100BB dowsnswing at $3/$6 the day of dropping down.

Based on the number of hands I have played in the past 1 1/2 years (500,000+), I figured a downswing like this was inevitable (although it did in fact suck my balzac).

The sharp upswing following was quite nice, although I was justly disappointed that it had to happen at $3/$6 instead of $5/$10 lol.

The additional 300BB downswing hurt a lot more than the original one which was worse (both BB-wise and dollar-wise), since they both happened in such a short time-frame.

Nevertheless, even including this ~63,000 hand breakeven streak over the past few months of play, I have still ended each and every month with the profit expected given the amount of hands that I played that month (~1BB/100 [I am aware that I suck]). It just goes to show that these things happen, but as long as you keep playing your best, you'll get what is coming to you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]