Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

I really hate betting the turn here. If you get c/red, you have to drop.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

I am simply shocked by the number of replies telling you to bet the turn.

I think we've had like 23984 hands on here recently where somebody got c/red on the turn with a big draw, and everybody and their mother told them to check behind.

This is a classic spot where we're either way ahead or behind with a good draw to improve to the best hand. If we get c/red here, we throw up in our mouth and have to fold.

I love the turn check, but I'm unsure of the river.

Your line screams flush draw, so it's not too surprizing that villian would check to you with a big hand, planning a c/r, figuring that you'll just fold to a bet anyway. On the other hand, villian has no reason to figure that you can call this bet, so a bluff becomes more likely.

Villian has to be bluffing here an awful lot to make this a good call.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

Hi capn,

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People regularly make pot bets at higher stakes, so it's just opponent dependent. You can't just say that "if he had something good, he wouldn't bet so big".

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I didn't just say that. I said, [he probably thinks cwl doesn't have much, and given that, it doesn't make sense that he'd make a large bet with a good hand]. The two statements are very different.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

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I'm interested to know the thought process behind the turn check.

Marlow

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a good percentage of the time im winning on the turn and he is drawing fairly thin. when i check the turn i think i stand a very good chance of getting a pottish sized bet on the river, either when he bluffs at it or when i make a bet that looks a lot like me betting a busted draw. this also minimizes the risks of getting bet off my hand or putting in too much with a second best hand. my hand is good enough that i dont really need to make him fold but not good enough that i want to catch a ton of heat.

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If so, the river call is mandatory as I think

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

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It's much more likely in my mind that he has nothing, but is afraid you have a bigger nothing, like an Ace-high busted flush draw.


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I agree. And I call. Is he really checking the river w/ a hand that beats yours? I mean, he has no reason whatsoever to think that you have a hand that will pay off his river CR that he's beating, does he? And if he had, say A9, or 1010/JJ/QQ, whatever, isn't he just check-calling the river to induce a bluff from your potentially busted draw? Unless this guy's quite a lot trickier than your working assumption, I call expecting to win a healthy percentage of the time here.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

Ok. I'm dying for the results.

Marlow

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

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if it's Michael Thuritz, he's far from newish/bad

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When do these Swedes start playing high-stakes poker? 12?

Swede

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

the turn check makes particularly good sense vs. a player like thuritz (i agree with your analyasis of him cwl) who is probably not calling the turn, he is folding or raising.

cero z i disagree with your thought process. if thuritiz though CWL busted out on a draw he wouldn't need to make a full pot size c/r he would c/r less so his big bet size is not an indictation of weakness imo it is of strength. he went for a turn c/r and missed, then got smart and made the river c/r getting the bet out of CWL and also playing tricky maybe inducing a call, so you should disappoint him and fold.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

I don't know what he would do, but I would fire again on the turn with a draw on this board and with the given preflop action. To me this looks like a turn check-raise gone wrong, and he figured out how to make a smart river play with a big hand that might just get paid of, since it will be so hard to put him on a made hand.

Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1
 

With what hands is villain going for a river CR after whiffing one on the turn?