Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

there are statistical ways to answer your question. If you want, i can calculate the % chance you've been playing losing poker over that stretch vs just being unlucky, and also the probable range your actual winrate is in. PM me your BB/100, standard deviation/100, and actual number of hands.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

PM sent, thanks

Here is my chart, I did drop down in limits during this run also.

[image]http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/6...wnswing7qv.jpg[/image]

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

krazyace5, I just did a quick search. Looks like it's been a long, long time since you posted a hand for commentary.

Post hands. It works. Trust me on this.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

Think back to every pot you lost. Did you take a bad beat or make bad plays?

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

the majority were bad beats/bad luck.

Going over my hands I can see it is a mix of bad luck and over aggressiveness. Looks like I got bad habits to kick.
Looking at some of these hands now I can see how I overplayed some of them. Oh well , back to the grind.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

[ QUOTE ]
But I honestly think and attribute a majority of it to the fact that I have just been having the worst luck lately.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Your bad results were due 100% to poor play. (Keep reading...)

That's a better attitude than the one you've taken. My way, you're committed to finding and fixing your leaks (which you do have -- everybody does). Your way, you can get away with blaming the fish for thier terrible suckouts, the poker gods for not recieving your scrifices on time, variance for swinging it's mathematical stick in your direction... what have you. But you're not going to be committed to improving, which every poker player should be committed to. Downswing or no.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

[ QUOTE ]
there are statistical ways to answer your question. If you want, i can calculate the % chance you've been playing losing poker over that stretch vs just being unlucky, and also the probable range your actual winrate is in. PM me your BB/100, standard deviation/100, and actual number of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please post the proceedure. I've been playing with excel and can't get it.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

This is not a 30k hand downswing. This is a 4500 hand downswing, followed by a 4500 hand upturn, followed by.....you get the picture. Yes, you've gone 30k hands without fully recovering from you negative swings, but that's not the same thing as running bad for 30k consecutive hands.

Oh yeah, you're only down about 8 buy-ins. That's bad, but the end of the world. If it makes you feel any better, I dropped 23 buy-ins (at multiple levels cause I kept dropping down) in a 10 day stretch in November. 25k hands...and yes, I played like crap.

The good news is that I've completely recovered and after taking a lot of time to study and learn from my mistakes, I play a much stronger game now.

So hang in there. Study and learn. Things will turn....eventually.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

I'm looking forward to Team Donkey's calculation. It is the only way to answer your question.

But in the mean time, your graph shows that you are down apx 0.02 bb/100. That is a very shallow (although long) downswing. So, I expect that the probability of this happening by chance, if you are a truely 4bb/100 player, is not terribly unlikely.

Re: On a 30,000 hand downswing.....
 

Yeah I am gonna take grunchs and your advice.

Just stressin me out more than it usually would since it hit at the worst time with the holidays and all. Also hit right after I took out a nice chunk of my bankroll for holiday shopping.

Thanks for the tips and encouragement.