11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

I haven't been on this site long, so if I post an inappropriate question, slap me and forgive me.

Right now, I am playing 10 plus 1 sng's at Party. I am averaging ITM about 35 percent. In reading the FAQ here, I see that the most one can reasonably expect long-term is about 44 percent. To me, that makes sng's unwinnable. If I buy-in at 11 bucks per table (110 bucks), and only get itm 40 percent of the time (placing third), that's a 30 dollar deficit. If I place first one of those times, I am only breaking even.

For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

You are (hopefully) gonna win or get second once in a while [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

win more.

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

My November and December SNGs at the 11s:

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a1...inishgraph.jpg

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been on this site long, so if I post an inappropriate question, slap me and forgive me.

Right now, I am playing 10 plus 1 sng's at Party. I am averaging ITM about 35 percent. In reading the FAQ here, I see that the most one can reasonably expect long-term is about 44 percent. To me, that makes sng's unwinnable. If I buy-in at 11 bucks per table (110 bucks), and only get itm 40 percent of the time (placing third), that's a 30 dollar deficit. If I place first one of those times, I am only breaking even.

For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're getting ITM 44% of the time, you're going to get a lot of 1sts and 2nds as well. It will happen, if only be accident. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

So, do most here agree that 44 percent itm over the long-term is attainable?

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

[ QUOTE ]
For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh yeh maths skills [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

40% ITM, say 13.33% for each of the paid placings. That's ((.133*39 + .133*19 + .133*9) - .6*11)/11 = 21.18% ROI.

That's 33.27% ROI for 44% ITM.

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, do most here agree that 44 percent itm over the long-term is attainable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure because I've never played the 11s. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

However, you should try not to focus too much on your ITM and ROI (especially over a small sample size). Worry about making the correct plays and plugging leaks. You can still be a winning player with an ITM in the mid to high 30s and it's not like you're a failure if you don't attain 44%.

Re: 11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit
 

IMO, 44% ITM is certainly attainable long-term at the 11s. As is a ROI over 30%. Why anybody who isn't very, very scared of variance would bother to "prove" (4000+ sample size) is beyond me especially since the 22s are only marginally tougher.

I am currently learning to ten table continuously right now (I like the idea of pumping out 50 800 chippers in 3 hours) at the 11s with aspirations of moving up to the 55s by the spring and through a decent sized sample have a ROI/ITM combo considerably higher than 30/44. I doubt its sustainable but I am certainly not going to be the variance boogeymens' guinea pig.

I realize that the mantra of this forum is to overplay the effects of variance to excuse poor play and tilt but if through 200 games you have a negative ROI at the 11s there is a very good chance your game is full of leaks.