What is your play? TPMK against chip leader
 

Also posted in SSNL

FullTilt $100+$9 NLHE – 78 players (9 places paid)

(BTW, anyone know of a fulltilt hand converter?)

Bubble time (12 remaining)

Villian = Chip leader – T25,526
Hero – T19,652 (2nd in chips)

Table has gone super tight and is getting tighter the closer we are getting to the $$
Read on villian is that he is a TAG. Played with him a few times so far and he has only shown down premium hands. I’ve also been playing TAG, but looser than villian, but haven't tried anything crazy.

Table is 6 handed – blinds 300/600
Hero in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Folded to Hero who bets 1600, folded to villian in BB who raises to 2750, Hero calls
Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets 3000, villian check-raises All-in, hero folds

Anyone call here? I did not want to bust from 2nd and not make the money so late. Push the flop???

There were 2 players around T750 and 3 others less than T2000. Decided to pick a better spot and not tangle too much w/ chip leader yet. I know, I should not have been thinking of the $$ yet, but oh well. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Folding here dropped me to 5th in chips, but I was still in decent shape.

Thoughts?

Re: What is your play? TPMK against chip leader
 

Pretty easy fold.

Re: What is your play? TPMK against chip leader
 

I thought so too, and didn't even think twice about it until I was going over my hand histories and a friend came over. He is a decent player, a bit too passive, but he said he would have really thought about calling. Coming from him, being as passive as he is, I was really shocked!

Re: What is your play? TPMK against chip leader
 

only shown down premium hands...TAG...what are u hoping he has?

You beat..J-J., 10-10, A-9 to 2. And it's very unlikely he'd do this with J-J, or 10-10...so ur might as well be closing ur eyes and praying he reraised u with A-9 or worse.

He beats you with: A-K, A-Q, A-J, K-Q, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-10....

It's not worth the risk.