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-   -   AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403633)

Coolidge 12-22-2005 07:30 PM

AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
.5/1

Villian 1 (UTG)is 19.3/8.8/1.71(59)
Villian 2 (MP1)is 24.4/5.4/1.13 (168)

Hero is UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PRE -
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls 3 cold, folds to UTG who calls.

FLIZOP - 3 players (5.25 sb) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero...?

What is my line for the rest of the hand? Can this be folded on the flop?

Vote4Pedro 12-22-2005 07:37 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Theres absolutely no way I'm folding. We're ahead of UTG, and the only "reasonable" hand MP could have that beats us is 99. And I'm not so sure he'd be calling 3 PF w/ 99. I cap the flop and lead the turn, I switch to call-down mode if I meet any more resistance

DCWildcat 12-22-2005 07:39 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
This hand shows the importance of reads/stats. I think Vote4Pedro nailed it. You're going to split with another AK very often here, though.

12-22-2005 07:41 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Theres absolutely no way I'm folding. We're ahead of UTG, and the only "reasonable" hand MP could have that beats us is 99. And I'm not so sure he'd be calling 3 PF w/ 99. I cap the flop and lead the turn, I switch to call-down mode if I meet any more resistance

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I don't think it's safe to say that any of the .50/1 players on party are by any means 'reasonable'. Although I still agree; I think folding is by far the wrong play. I'd cap the flop, and lead the turn, if I encounter a raise I'd probably call down hoping he has downsyndrome and is going crazy with a lesser ace.

Coolidge 12-22-2005 07:42 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Well said, but what hands do you put the 3-bettor on that would make him 3-bet that flop?

DCWildcat 12-22-2005 07:47 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
UTG could have AJs+. MP isn't beating too many hands if he's true to his stats--unless he's stupid and ignores PF raises, AK or maaaybe AQ are all he could really hold.

Regardless, you're getting over 13 to 1 here, which is enough to call every time.

nomadtla 12-22-2005 08:07 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
what hands do you put the 3-bettor on that would make him 3-bet that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

That depends. His VPIP is 24 but I've seen 24's that play alot of aces. I've seen 24's that don't ever want to get away from a pocket pair PF. His PFR is kinda low so he could have called 3 with AK. But would he coldcall 3 with AQ, AJ(maybe), or an even weaker ace?. A read on his tendencies with pocket pairs, and with Ax would be helpful. I don't see him three beting this flop without at least AK, AQ, AJ(maybe) or a hand that has us beat (2 pair, set)

12-22-2005 08:14 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
I don't see how in the world you can fold TPTK with a flop like this.

I'd cap this, bet out the turn... if he raises call down.. but I just find it hard to think I don't have the best hand.

I don't see MP1 calling 3 cold on 55.. 99 would be tough to see as well.

midwestkc 12-22-2005 08:17 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
*GRUNCH*

I cap this flop, then see how the hand looks on the turn. I probably bet/raise the turn, call a raise/3bet from mp1, and check/call the river UI.

TripleH68 12-22-2005 08:19 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
By my calculation pot is 19sb back to hero on the flop.

The uncoordinated flop is a concern, but the pot is too big to consider folding.

nomadtla 12-22-2005 08:46 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What is my line for the rest of the hand? Can this be folded on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is to big to fold this flop. But 90% of the time someone with MP1's stats makes it 3 on this ragged of a flop (unless they're stacking off) has 2 pair or better. Best case scenario with his action I think we split. Call the flop.

I don't know what I want to do on the latter streets. There are a lot of variables depending on what comes and whether UTG still wants to be saucy. I think I want to go WA/WB if UTG gets out on the turn.

PokerBob 12-23-2005 09:02 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
.5/1

Villian 1 (UTG)is 19.3/8.8/1.71(59)
Villian 2 (MP1)is 24.4/5.4/1.13 (168)

Hero is UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PRE -
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls 3 cold, folds to UTG who calls.

FLIZOP - 3 players (5.25 sb) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero...?

What is my line for the rest of the hand? Can this be folded on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

folding the flop would be retarded beyond words. cap the flop or just call. but get your ass to showdown.

GTSamIAm 12-23-2005 09:09 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
MP1 could have A9, so you definitely have outs to call down and counterfeit. That said, I think betting the turn is a mistake. Just because bad opponents shouldn't have a big hand, doesn't mean they won't. How many players at this limit have a hand you are beating when they three-bet you on this flop? I think the fact that the board is uncoordinated should make you think the villain has a big hand rather than a small hand.

12-23-2005 09:12 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
MP1 has 99, 55 or A9s

but it doesnt matter. cap it and bet the turn

GTSamIAm 12-23-2005 09:14 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
If you can only put him on a big hand, why would you bet the turn?

Vote4Pedro 12-23-2005 09:15 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
MP1 has 99, 55 or A9s

but it doesnt matter. cap it and bet the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

NobodysFreak 12-23-2005 09:39 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Grunch...

Cap the flop.

Lead the turn, call down if you get raised.

Whatever you do, don't fold the flop.

Eeegah 12-23-2005 09:43 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
MP1 has 99, 55 or A9s

but it doesnt matter. cap it and bet the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing is the new winning

12-24-2005 01:21 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
haha everyone knows that the read is correct and so is the play, regardless of logic

Shillx 12-24-2005 01:25 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
What is MP1's range here? I'm guessing AA/99/55/AQ+ so I'd calldown.

Yerma 12-24-2005 01:40 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Given the stats you gave, I would *strongly* suspect MP1 for 99 after cold-calling 3 and 3-betting the flop. He could possibly have had AQs or AK though. So for sure no more raising, especially if another A falls since that makes it even more likely that MP1 had 99. Call down is probably right because of the standard 5% random flop 3-bettor bull[censored] factor, combined with the fact that he could have AQs or another AK.

Yerma 12-24-2005 01:42 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Hi NobodysFreak,

I realize you are still learning, so I don't want to be harsh. However, your grunch is just no good!

Yerma 12-24-2005 01:46 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
If you were playing against someone who you knew was very good, he would have 99 here >99% of the time. So you would dump your AK and know that you are drawing dead despite the size of the pot.

Coolidge 12-24-2005 02:47 PM

RESULTS
 
[ QUOTE ]
.5/1

Villian 1 (UTG)is 19.3/8.8/1.71(59)
Villian 2 (MP1)is 24.4/5.4/1.13 (168)

Hero is UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PRE -
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls 3 cold, folds to UTG who calls.

FLIZOP - 3 players (5.25 bb) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

TURN - 3 players (9.25bb) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, UTG raises, Hero folds...


I guess, I should have capped the flop and bet the turn(?) I think I am beat after UTG CR's the turn. I thought 99 or AJ were likely.

Thoughts?

12-24-2005 02:53 PM

Re: RESULTS
 
I'm 23/1.3 and I would re-raise and cap with 99, AQ+ and cold call with 55. I'm also not good enough to let go of tp/tk but am passive enough to call down to the river.

12-24-2005 04:47 PM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
Im not folding the flop.

Pedigree 12-24-2005 05:49 PM

Re: RESULTS
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.5/1

Villian 1 (UTG)is 19.3/8.8/1.71(59)
Villian 2 (MP1)is 24.4/5.4/1.13 (168)

Hero is UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PRE -
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls 3 cold, folds to UTG who calls.

FLIZOP - 3 players (5.25 bb) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

TURN - 3 players (9.25bb) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, UTG raises, Hero folds...


I guess, I should have capped the flop and bet the turn(?) I think I am beat after UTG CR's the turn. I thought 99 or AJ were likely.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Capping the flop and betting the turn would've helped you how? You would've wasted more money while behind.

As for the turn, you're obviously behind. Best case scenario you have 3 outs. You're not getting close to 14 to 1. This is a no brainer fold.

Good hand, you played it well the whole way.

PokerBob 12-25-2005 12:48 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What is MP1's range here? I'm guessing AA/99/55/AQ+ so I'd calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're only ahead of one of those. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

PokerBob 12-25-2005 12:55 AM

Re: RESULTS
 
this is the only way to play this hand unless you have reads that both players are over-arrgo spazztards.

Shillx 12-25-2005 04:24 AM

Re: AKo vs. the mighty 3-bet.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is MP1's range here? I'm guessing AA/99/55/AQ+ so I'd calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're only ahead of one of those. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.015 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: As 9c 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3882 % 33.09% 14.30% { AdKs }
Hand 2: 52.6118 % 38.31% 14.30% { AA, 99, 55, AQs+, AQo+ }

Pedigree 12-25-2005 09:42 PM

Re: RESULTS
 
[ QUOTE ]
this is the only way to play this hand unless you have reads that both players are over-arrgo spazztards.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had a really good read on the three bettor (24.4/5.4/1.13 over 168 hands). A player like this generally won't three bet unless he can beat top pair. There's no reason to get crazy/aggressive here.


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