Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Here is hand #2 of my marginal hand series. BTW, By marginal hand I mean "not premium hand" not necessarily a marginal play (although it could be).

What would you do and why?

MP2 is LPP, MP3 is LAP, SB and BB are TAP

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero ??

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Fold, but it's close. I'd likely call if there were 4 opponents (other than the blinds) or if the blinds were less tight.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Fold, but it's close. I'd likely call if there were 4 opponents or if the blinds were less tight.

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Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

I think if the blinds came along it would make it a call, but since you've pegged the blinds as tight, I would fold this since 3.25:1 isn't quite good enough.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Unless you are pretty sure both blinds are coming along, you should fold this one. If you trust the stats you have, then it's an easy fold. Cold-calling 97s in a 4-way pot isn't so good, cold-calling 97s in a 6-way pot is quite nice.

Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

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This is where I think a little differently. They may normally be passive after the flop but once one of them raises preflop there's a lot better chance he will be aggressive after the flop and give me some good action if I flop my hand or good draw. Plus with MP2 being a fish there's a good chance he will suck along.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

ok - first post, still learning - taking the advice of folks to post responses to hands to help improve my own play.

I'd fold. The odds your getting on it don't make it worth the investment. If the SB or BB come in, obviously you're getting better odds but its also likely they have something. of course you'd dump on the flop if your draws don't hit, but even so seems like a bad investment to me with the information you have.

that said, i'm just getting started, so what do i know!

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

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This is where I think a little differently. They may normally be passive after the flop but once one of them raises preflop there's a lot better chance he will be aggressive after the flop and give me some good action if I flop my hand or good draw. Plus with MP2 being a fish there's a good chance he will suck along.

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Again I ask, how much more action do you think you can get out them? How often do you flop "your hand or a good draw"?

Even though someone raised preflop, it's not always clear that he's going to pay off everything postflop. This is not a no-limit game. In a 4-handed pot, you're probably going to squeeze out maybe 4-6 BB postflop (2 players for 2 SB on the flop = 2BB, one player will probably see the river from there = 2 BB).

97s is not going to flop a strong enough hand often enough to be profitable with such small implied odds.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

I'd fold this one. It simply won't hit the flop enough to make up for the times it doesn't. Having the button adds considerably to the value of this hand but you need to make up a lot of bets postflop to make spending 2SB worth it. Put in another limper or make the blinds looser or throw in LAG and I think this is a good marginal call. With this group you probably drag smallish pots the majority of the time you win.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

I fold this because your given read on the blinds is that they are tight.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero??

Well, that 3-bet was a surprise.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

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Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

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I can see where your 27% VPIP comes from [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Call. It doesn't look like MP2 is going anywhere, and it doesn't look like he's in the mood to give you a free card.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero??

Well, that 3-bet was a surprise.

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Hero calls.

*Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

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97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

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One of the things I've noticed in your posts is that you dismiss other people's arguments out of hand. I don't think this is the best way to use this forum to improve your game.

*Everyone* in this thread (except you) is in agreement that this is a fold preflop. While nobody is arguing that it's a huge leak, you might want to ask yourself if you're making a systematic mistake in preflop hand evaluation, or whether we're all wrong.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Maybe it's a leak but I'm a sucker for these kinds of hands (position, aggressor on my right which gives me some control, middle 1-gap suited) - I'd play (call) really hoping the blinds call. I'm always reluctant to cc but I think it might be worth it here. (Obviously the risk is blinds reraising to play. I'd consider folding to a reraise since with CO's cc, the blind(s) would probably only be raising with very strong hands.)

I like these partly because if I pair one/both it's more likely a reraise folds those on my left (everybody's passive). And if my fl/str starts to fill out I can call/semi-bluff depending (and probably no one suspecting I'm playing a 1-gapper).


Hmm. I had only read OP but after reading replies it appears I have a leak.

What kind of players normally complete from the blind with anything decent after two coldcalls, hoping to score big on the flop? Only loose players? Is that a red flag for tight players? Two coldcalls makes me think "bad players to take advantage of" (and since I admit this is a leak, I've admitted I am in fact playing badly here)?

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

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97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

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That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

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Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

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Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

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Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

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I looked up some numbers and it seems that you will flop something worth playing about 33% of the time.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

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That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."

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Sorry -- semantics.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

No problem. I agree with your take on this.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

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I can see where your 27% VPIP comes from [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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Yep, and if that smirk was a wink then things would be a little smoother.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

fold PF but people said that.

that flop was about as good as it gets for you. flush draw and double gutshot....you could cap this if you think it'll get you a free card if a blank turn falls or if another player was in. Heads up you don't quite have the equity to cap solely for value.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

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1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

Edit:

3) Futhermore, you should only expect to win about half the time you "hit" the flop, because you will either have a draw that comes in only 33% of the time (and win only about 85% of those) or you will have a pair that is difficult to protect.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

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1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.



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I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

I'd fold so fast it isn't even funny.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

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I knew that sooner or later someone would bring this up. I thought it would be post #3 so it was "sooner". For you gamblers out there the "under" is a winner. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Don't worry. They won't all be winners.

Oh, and I don't think I'm trying to prove anything. I thought these types of hands would lead to some lively discussion and maybe help some of those people who have a VP$IP of 12% and complain they can't beat the .50/1 limit.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

Is a raise on the flop the best play? I'd be interested to here some responses.

I know it builds the pot for when you hit your draws and might buy you a free card on the turn. But either the better has a set and is going for value OR he's onto your free card play and making you pay for it. Either way, it drove out the other two callers who could have contributed 2 more BB's to the pot if you hit either of your draws on the turn. Then you could raise the turn.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

This is a fold for me, even with the button. I'd coldcall with T9s and maybe T8s and be more likely to coldcall with blinds.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I don't think I'm trying to prove anything.

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I believe you. And I believe that the discussions garnered in the last couple days have been good for the forum. But I also think you tend to disregard advice even in the face of mathematical proof. You do this to your own detriment. It takes a lot of energy to write a long &amp; thorough EV evaluation of a marginal situation. And while I'm sure some lurkers &amp; thread contributors may benefit from the analysis, the OP's general refusal to accept such an analysis is also a little frustrating.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Is a raise on the flop the best play?

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I strongly agree with the flop raise. If you knew that MP2 was going to immediately 3-bet and fold out the other two players, then obviously you would want to just call, but Hero didn't know that at the time. (Remember, MP2 is LPP. They don't do a lot of 3-betting).

Basically, Hero is raising with his flush draw for value. The fact that he might get a free card is just gravy.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

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One of the things I've noticed in your posts is that you dismiss other people's arguments out of hand. I don't think this is the best way to use this forum to improve your game.

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It's called a debate. I reply with my opinions and you replay with yours. Doesn't mean I'm right and doesn't mean you're right.

If everybody always followed the majority opinion then things would be pretty boring. Sometimes you have to think outside the box. My idea is to offer a differing viewpoint to make you think about these types of situations.

You are dealt a lot more marginal hands than you are ultra premium hands so you have more opportunity to win or lose money with them. If you take the time to read my opinion and think about it a little and then decide it's baloney that's fine. At least you had a different viewpoint than yours to compare with.

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*Everyone* in this thread (except you) is in agreement that this is a fold preflop. While nobody is arguing that it's a huge leak, you might want to ask yourself if you're making a systematic mistake in preflop hand evaluation, or whether we're all wrong.

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I DO appreciate all the comments and compare them with my own thoughts. I then decide which course I want to follow. I WILL NOT follow a path because everyone else does. If I'm wrong then I have no one to blame but myself.

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

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1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.



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I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?

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"More often than not" is the false claim. It's more like "half as often as not".

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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This is a fold for me, even with the button. I'd coldcall with T9s and maybe T8s and be more likely to coldcall with blinds.

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that is prob my range as well, unraised pots with bad limpers you can limp along with alot of 1gappers, and sconnectors

the big difference is that implied odds for these hands thrive on seeing the flop for 1bet, every additional bet going preflop makes it harder to get to the break even point

so if forced to pay 2bets to see the flop, the only connectors worth playing have 1pair value, in that you will win a decent % of the time with toppair(orsecond pair on occasion) Tens or Jacks, where as pair of 6's,7's,8's are much less likely to hold up

say the breakeven point for your hand is 12 to 1(prob reasonable, as small pockets are around 10/1) and you are getting 5 to 1 on a call .. you need to make up 5-7SB when you hit strong

but if forced to pay 2bets, getting the same relative odds that is 10/2 .. you need to make 10-14SB to get back to even, considerably tougher and less likely to happen with small connectors, and 1gappers

also a main consideration is position, you really want the button with these hands, yes you do in the hand in this thread .. but an action line UTG limp, UTG+1 raise 2caller you in MP2 or Hijack isn't a very good spot to be w/ say 97s .. this applies when the pot is unraised as well, but you do have a little more flexibility in those situations

Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play
 

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I don't think I'm trying to prove anything.

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I believe you. And I believe that the discussions garnered in the last couple days have been good for the forum. But I also think you tend to disregard advice even in the face of mathematical proof.

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With all due respect, Grunch, I don't believe you proved yesterday that calling 2 bets with a gutshot and BDFD was -EV since you didn't consider the outs for the gutshot.

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You do this to your own detriment. It takes a lot of energy to write a long &amp; thorough EV evaluation of a marginal situation. And while I'm sure some lurkers &amp; thread contributors may benefit from the analysis, the OP's general refusal to accept such an analysis is also a little frustrating.

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Like I said in another response, I appreciate all the comments and analysis.

"...general refusal to accept such an analysis..." In other words, "I'm right and you're wrong". If I believe I have a valid position I'm going to state it. For many of these situations there is no "right or wrong"/"black or white".

I consider each opposing opinion strongly and then decide what's best for me using all the information I have. Hopefully you can understand that and not take it as an insult when I don't agree 100%.