First Time Scalp
 

There is a game with a 3 pt spread.

If I bet $500 (Even) on the -3,
and $500 (+112) on the +3,

I can only win or break even right?

Re: First Time Scalp
 

Or you could bet 472 on the +112 line and profit about 28 bucks either way, unless there is a push.

Re: First Time Scalp
 

I keep thinking I figure it out, but I haven't.

Is there a simple formula to figure out the maximum you can earn that would be the same for both sides winning.

If you have a -110 line and a +116 on the other side.

If you bet $500 on the -110
How would you figure out what to be on the +116 side?

Re: First Time Scalp
 

What bookie is possibly stupid enough to offer lines like this?

Re: First Time Scalp
 

Different books.

Re: First Time Scalp
 

Yeah this is a simple arbitrage opportunity. You want to find the amounts to bet where you have zero risk. So basically you want the payouts in both win-loss cases to be equal. Say X is the amount you bet on the underdog and Y is the amount to bet on the favorite. So then we have the equation 1.12X - Y = Y - X, which solves to a ratio of Y = 1.06X. So for example you bet $106 on the favorite and $100 on the underdog. If the favorite wins, you get $106 - $100 = $6. If the dog wins you get $112 - $106 = $6. So if you bet $530 and $500 you are guaranteed $30 in profit.

PS - Would you mind PM'ing me what matchup and books you are looking at? I'm a small-stakes bettor so I wouldn't affect the lines at all.

Re: First Time Scalp
 

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could bet 472 on the +112 line and profit about 28 bucks either way, unless there is a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You certainly could. But it wouldn't change your EV all that much, just further reduce variance (you would win .5X each time, instead of winning X half the time).

I just take the +112 for a nickel, and lay the fav to win a nickel. I win twice as much, half as often--but I'll get $500 bet in, as opposed to $470, which gives me a step up on bonus clearing.

Of course, I'm also at the $12 level. If we were talking about $1200, I might feel differently.