Pot Equity vs. Pot Odds vs. Effective Odds
 

How do I decide when to use pot equity, pot odds, or effective odds? For example, $1-$2 game,person in early position calls, person in middle position calls, I call in late position with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB folds, BB raises, everyone calls. Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB bets, everyone folds to me. Here is where I am confused.

My pot equity is 35%? BB's is 65%? So, I should fold?

or,

My pot odds are 9.5 to 1 vs. my chances of hitting of 4.2 to 1? So, I should call? Or,

My effective odds are 13.5 to 3, or 4.5 to 1 (assuming BB at least calls a bet on the end) vs. my odds of hitting with two cards to come of 1.86 to 1? Should I use the 1.86 to 1 here? So, I call?

Sorry if this has been asked before-couldn't find it.

Re: Pot Equity vs. Pot Odds vs. Effective Odds
 

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person in early position calls, person in middle position calls, I call in late position with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB folds, BB raises, everyone calls.


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Okay, it's 4 players for two bets each, so 8SBs in the pot. Forget the half bet, it's getting raked.

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Flop is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
BB bets, everyone folds to me. Here is where I am confused.


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Your immediate pot odds are 9:1. The odds against making your hand on the next card are 4.2:1. Thus, you should call.

Since you're probably going to call all the way down here, you can consider your effective odds as well (though in this case, you should know before doing the math that you're calling all the way). The odds against making your hand by the river are about 1.86:1. On the turn the BB may bet, putting a big bet in, that's another bet you'll call to see the river. So, you're going to have to put in 1.5 big bets to win 5.5 (4.5 big bets up to now, plus 1 big bet on the turn), so 5.5:1.5. This yields about 3.7:1 in effective odds. Compared to 1.86:1, you see it's proper to call all the way.

Of course, there are the implied odds if you hit as well, but I'm sure I've made enough math errors for one post. You may be able extract another bet, suffice to say.

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My pot equity is 35%? BB's is 65%? So, I should fold?


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Pot equity calcs can tell you how much of each bet "belongs" to you. Yes, each bet you put in losses you money, but that's why you're calling instead of raising, you want to try to hit your hand as cheaply as possible.

If the other players has remained in the hand, then it's useful to know the equity because each bet going in may be making you money even though you're drawing.

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My effective odds are 13.5 to 3, or 4.5 to 1 (assuming BB at least calls a bet on the end) vs. my odds of hitting with two cards to come of 1.86 to 1? Should I use the 1.86 to 1 here? So, I call?


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I'm not sure you're counting bets correctly in your example here, and you don't count the called bet on the end since you're done drawing and you've then moved into the realm of implied odds.

I hope my explanation was clear.

Regards,

T