Difficult Turn Decision
 

Party Poker (9 handed) $600 NL converter

Stacks: Hero $2935.00
BTN $795.40

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>.

MP1 calls $6, Hero raises $30 (there is an late position poster in the CO), 2 folds, button calls $30, MP1 folds


Pot: $75


Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>.

Hero bets $37, Button raises to $74, Hero raises to $137...Button calls $136

(Should I have bet more on the flop here or is this OK???)

Pot: $421

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

<font color="red">What's the best line here? </font>

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

Any tells on MP1s plaiying style? Let's assume "no."

Your buddy, just from his betting pattern here, seems like a guy who is in control of his game and who has some conception of pot odds, value betting, etc. From the pattern, looks like he was on a mega draw and was raising just a bit to: a. check you out; and, b. to build the pot to a reasonable size without costing him too much $$ in the process. He accomplishes both of his goals. Your raise to "137," to me, is just as much an announcement of a big hand as a raise to 250. You're not giving him GREAT odds for a call on the flush draw. But, if I had a mega draw and, considering the possible implied odds, I'm gladly calling here. Most importantly, since you are out of position, you aren't exactly making things easy for yourself on the turn if a scare card arrives on this already reasonably scare board. You really should try to take this one down now or really charge him for his draw. Put that raise up to 250 - 275.

You're not in horrible shape on the turn, of course. My best line is to start yelling out expletives at the computer and then pop in Tiger Woods Golf '05. But, that's just me. I think YOUR best line is to check and hope your opponent gives you decent odds to a full house draw. Otherwise, fold. Am I about to get yelled at here? I don't see many hands you are ahead of given this action. If your opponent is smart, any value bet here is just going to bet pummeled by an all-in. If you bet out 300 or so, then MAYBE your opponent folds, but I just doubt it. He might call, but if he does, you haven't given yourself good odds on the river. I say check and hope you get some good odds from a nitty player.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think YOUR best line is to check and hope your opponent gives you decent odds to a full house draw. Otherwise, fold. Am I about to get yelled at here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a nasty spot without a read, I am checking here as well. Villain isn't folding to a bet.

If he hit, hopefully he thinks you have an over pair and are scared of the turn, so he'll bet weak to try to keep you in, giving you odds for the boat.

It's hard to fold this without a read on villain.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

At the moment, I'll just supply villain's stats since I would like to wait for some more replies before giving results...but villain is 20.44/4.44/0.62 over 225 hands. His agression on the flop and turn has been 1.42/1.40 respectively and he has an agression of zero on the river in 14 possible actions.

The only thing to add is that this guy seems to have "followed" me from NL400 but I can't be sure. He may think of me as a mega-fish and he loves to float me...probably b/c I PFR a lot (maybe too much).

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

Your flop play is super ugly.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

With those stats and aggression bet the turn. It's hard to put someone tight/passive on only a draw on the flop with that action.

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, should have pushed to his raise.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure don't mind the criticsm...care to elaborate?

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure don't mind the criticsm...care to elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

That flop is insanely draw heavy, you dont want to be underbetting the flop, and after he raised you, you want to throw in a real potsized re-raise (225-250). I would check the turn.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker (9 handed) $600 NL converter

Stacks: Hero $2935.00
BTN $795.40

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>.

MP1 calls $6, Hero raises $30 (there is an late position poster in the CO), 2 folds, button calls $30, MP1 folds


Pot: $75


Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>.

Hero bets $37, Button raises to $74, Hero raises to $137...Button calls $136

(Should I have bet more on the flop here or is this OK???)

Pot: $421

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

<font color="red">What's the best line here? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely a tough spot, OOP with middle set v. a flopped str8 with a flush draw. Typical WA/WB situation. However, this villain is a Rock. You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise. It's hard to see a Rock calling a raise with 78s. first to act I'm firing an overbet of $100 which is intended to inform that if you're on a draw you better plan on hitting it on the turn (4-1) cause I've got the Big Stack and I'm going to push a blank turn.

If I get smoothcalled then I put him all-in on a blank turn and check if a club hits. When he bets I figure I'm WB and a 4-1 dog, so I've either got odds or I don't.

If I get raised on the flop then we're getting all the money in now. Depending on his raise amount I may push or put him where he's got to fold or push. Here I'm thinking it feels more like set over set.

Your flop lead smells weak and invites a raise, but the min-raise smells weak to me. At this point a pot-sized raise would be $225 to make it $300 to play. This gives villain 2-1 on his money to make his draw on the turn which is 4-1, and it will be an additional 2-1 as a 4-1 dog to see the river. The point of this is to encourage villain to put his money in getting incorrect odds.

If villain has a set and wants to push the flop then its fine with me.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what made this difficult. I was looking super-LAG on this table but it was because I'd been running hot (see stack size). I had been getting premium and otherwise raisable hands a lot and I was at about 30/15....which is about 50% higher than my normal preflop stats would indicate. Also, my flop aggression was running high as a result of good made hands and continuation bets...about 7.00. This makes me think that I could get him to push the flop with TPTK/Any 2 pair and hence the "crappy" flop bet. Nevertheless, in retrospect, I need to bet the flop harder because a) he's so rocky he might not play TPTK this way on this board even against a LAG and b) I still should not be giving him correct odds for a flush or nut str8 draw. I was trying to "invite" him to push here and quite frankly, he has never struck me as the type to raise a naked flush or str8 draw...even against me.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure don't mind the criticsm...care to elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

That flop is insanely draw heavy, you dont want to be underbetting the flop, and after he raised you, you want to throw in a real potsized re-raise (225-250). I would check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, this is correct. Turn play is complicated because of weird flop play which firmly defines you hand as a strong made hand, but fails to idenify your opponents hand and gives him odds to draw. And there's a lot of money left to bet.

I don't really get myself in these situation, but I think the turn is a check as you played it.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

This is what made this difficult. I was looking super-LAG on this table but it was because I'd been running hot (see stack size). I had been getting premium and otherwise raisable hands a lot and I was at about 30/15....which is about 50% higher than my normal preflop stats would indicate. Also, my flop aggression was running high as a result of good made hands and continuation bets...about 7.00. This makes me think that I could get him to push the flop with TPTK/Any 2 pair and hence the "crappy" flop bet. Nevertheless, in retrospect, I need to bet the flop harder because a) he's so rocky he might not play TPTK this way on this board even against a LAG and b) I still should not be giving him correct odds for a flush or nut str8 draw. I was trying to "invite" him to push here and quite frankly, he has never struck me as the type to raise a naked flush or str8 draw...even against me.



You got it.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

If you are running super LAG, I would just get it all in right there and then on the flop.

As played, I think you have to ck this turn given villain's less than average trickiness and rock status.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

I hope this doesn't sound to harsh, but you are a moron if you don't want to get all your money in on this flop. If you bet pot he raises you can easily move the rest in on the flop. If he has a flopped straight you have great equity. By only betting half the pot on the flop hero couldn't get all the money in on the flop and had a very dificult decision on the turn.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

I hope this doesn't sound to harsh, but you are a moron if you don't want to get all your money in on this flop. If you bet pot he raises you can easily move the rest in on the flop. If he has a flopped straight you have great equity. By only betting half the pot on the flop hero couldn't get all the money in on the flop and had a very dificult decision on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That decision does have a price...especially against a rock...and that decision is consistency. I bet half the pot because I try to keep my bet sizes consistent...whether I have ace high, an overpair, a set, 2 pair, quads, or a draw. I realize that this seems easy in a vacuum, and people may argue otherwise, but there is value in keeping flop play consistent even if it costs EV on a particular hand. That is, of course, beyond the scope of this discussion. At 100NL or less, people aren't paying enough attention to make this matter. I do feel that the metagame is important at this level, however.

If I was against a superfish, I would make the push here, however, because I'm likely to get called by a TPMK or something of that nature...and most players will know why I did that (because the guy is a superfish)...so it wouldn't be a breaking of that consistency.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope this doesn't sound to harsh, but you are a moron if you don't want to get all your money in on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you read my post above, I said to push. Your simplistic reply wasn't clear.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

You should be betting more on draw heavy flops with A-high so you can protect your hand when you have a real hand. A half pot flop bet on K83r is fine but not on T96 suited.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should be betting more on draw heavy flops with A-high so you can protect your hand when you have a real hand. A half pot flop bet on K83r is fine but not on T96 suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I understand what you're saying now. I thought you were advocating changing the bet amount based on your hole cards. Instead, you are changing based on the board....which is fine and likely to be superior.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

i'd pot the flop and push after his raise, especially if i have a LAG image. hopefully he didn't flop the straight or TTT.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Typical WA/WB situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not at all a WAWB situation. if we're ahead, we may only be slightly ahead of a flush draw (with a redraw, of course). if we're behind a straight, we still have a 36% chance of boating up. we're only way ahead of one/two pair or lower set and only way behind TTT.

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Typical WA/WB situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not at all a WAWB situation. if we're ahead, we may only be slightly ahead of a flush draw (with a redraw, of course). if we're behind a straight, we still have a 36% chance of boating up. we're only way ahead of one/two pair or lower set and only way behind TTT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You. WA/WB is the most mis/overused term on these forums. I even see people applying it to river situations.

This couldn't be LESS of a WA/WB situation.


Here is a text book WA/WB situation. You call a raise with AK and the flop comes K22 rainbow. There is no hand that villain can have that is drawing to greater than 2 outs when behind nor have you drawing to greater than 2 outs when ahead. The idea behind identifying such situations is that large bets and raises are likely -EV in these spots.