Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

im trying to work on blind war close value bets. the villian is 22/18/2.38 over 500 hands

all fold to button (fish) on my right he folds i raise A5cc in the sb and the villian calls.

flop is 8s5d4d i bet he raises i 3bet he calls.

turn is a 3x i bet he calls..

river is a 4c. check to induce a bluff from a diamond draw and since a 4 will now raise and he can also have an 8 to reduce the value bet? or bet b/c he can have an a high flush draw or a worse 5 or 22 or a draw w/ a 3 and will call?

it is unknown to me whether he will bluff raise the river.

-Barron

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

Barron,

I would check call if you will not pay off a river raise.

Pick off a bluff, save money if he checks through an 8 thinking you're getting cute with a 4 on the river, or, get free info. If he is a strong value bettor himself, he may well bet anything that he would call with here, with the exception of K/A high.

More good seems to come from check-calling here against this unknown.

Cheers,

Nigel

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

i didn't say i WOULDN"T call a raise..just unknown whether a raise could be a bluff

-Barron

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

Hi Dcifr,

I bet, for the following reasons:

1. I don't think he is checking behind with anything that beats me.

2. I don't think he is going to bluff his missed draw all that often. Your check shouts "I am going to call".

3. I'm not sure enough about 1 and 2 to feel good about check-folding.

4. There are plenty of worse hands that will call.

5. River bluff raises are not common.

So, given that I'm going to call if I check, I think the extra money gained from weaker hands calling outweighs the times I lose the pot to a bluff raise.

my 2 cents.
Eric

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

I think this is very hard to answer without knowing anything about BB's perception of you. Eric makes some good points, specifically if BB know you to be agressive with draws HU, but if he has only seen you bet made hands you should probably check/call. Given your usual style (or my perception of your style) I would never call a bet from you here with a worse hand.

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

I like check/call.

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

I think you sum it up nicely. People rarely bluff-raise the river, however. You don't say at what limit this is - 30/60?

Normally I would check-call the river here against a typical oppo, but since he's normally aggressive I think you are probably just ahead with a bet.

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

Check call and I don't think it's all that close, especially if there's any possibility whatsoever that he might bluff raise the river.

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

I'm betting. The only hand you'd rather check against is one with a 4. Even a flush draw might have an ace, or maybe even a good king, you're probably better off betting against that, too. Bluff raises on the river are too uncommon to change your play when it's HU, IMO.

Re: Another very close one. Value bet it?
 

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Check call and I don't think it's all that close, especially if there's any possibility whatsoever that he might bluff raise the river.

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agreed. i didnt think this one was close either.