Another bottom set post
 

Been experimenting with 8 tabling at the $25 NL until I get used to it. Had this hand occur, curious what your thoughts are on any/all streets.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP3 ($16.55)
CO ($11)
Button ($1.73)
SB ($22.45)
BB ($26.80)
UTG ($8.25)
UTG+1 ($16.36)
UTG+2 ($26.50)
MP1 ($28.90)
Hero ($45.77)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.25</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1.25.

Turn: ($4) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, BB calls $2.50.

River: ($9) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10.

Final Pot: $29

Re: Another bottom set post
 

i like everything but the river.

why o why did you not raise this?

Re: Another bottom set post
 

What do you put him on? He plays the entire hand passively and then wakes up on the river? 2-2? I don't think he's calling raises and check calling the turn with 2-2. No draws got there and I've represented strength on prior streets.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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What do you put him on? He plays the entire hand passively and then wakes up on the river?

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I put him on a 7 and milk him

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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What do you put him on? He plays the entire hand passively and then wakes up on the river? 2-2? I don't think he's calling raises and check calling the turn with 2-2. No draws got there and I've represented strength on prior streets.

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why go to a showdown when you can bet a perhaps get more value out of the hand?

you're only behind 77 and 88 here.

just calling seems like the worst play.

.edit forgot about 78, 73, 72

but i still think you should be raising this.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

At $25 NL, Its very likely he had an overpair like AA or KK here and has you on 8s. See it 2 or 3 times a session.
Its more likely he called the flop with second pair and thinks he's ahead on the turn.
Id guess your ahead here 80% of the time.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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I put him on a 7 and milk him

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Me too, the question is whether it's a lone 7 or not. I forget villain's stats but he was relatively passive and the stop 'n go just reeked of strength to me.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

a lone 7 IS strength to many many 25NL players. Thats why it might reek of strength, because trips is overvalued at this level

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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At $25 NL, Its very likely he had an overpair like AA or KK here and has you on 8s.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] He's checking A-A or K-K from the BB with a field in front of him? And I'm open-limping 8-8 from MP? Then he goes nuts on the river after I seemingly value bet him on the turn?

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a lone 7 IS strength to many many 25NL players. Thats why it might reek of strength, because a set is overvalued at this level

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I assume by "set", you mean trips. Regardless, yes, this is why I felt a call was justified.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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At $25 NL, Its very likely he had an overpair like AA or KK here and has you on 8s.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] He's checking A-A or K-K from the BB with a field in front of him? And I'm open-limping 8-8 from MP? Then he goes nuts on the river after I seemingly value bet him on the turn?

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a lone 7 IS strength to many many 25NL players. Thats why it might reek of strength, because a set is overvalued at this level

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I assume by "set", you mean trips. Regardless, yes, this is why I felt a call was justified.

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but youve got a full house...

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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but youve got a full house...

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Yes, yes I do. I called because it's very possible he has a lone 7. I didn't raise because it's very possible that he has more than a lone 7.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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but youve got a full house...

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yes but 87, 88, 72 and 73 all have bigger full houses, which I suppose is the worry.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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yes but 87, 88, 72 and 73 all have bigger full houses, which I suppose is the worry.

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Exactly. 8-8 didn't concern me, nor did 7-7. 8-7, 7-2 and 7-3 seemed like very realistic holdings, especially considering he's in the big blind and he's waking up forcefully on the river. At the time I honestly felt it was roughly a cointoss whether he had me or not.

I am absolutely not weak tight (esp. at micro limits), and I do realize that it can seem strange to not push here. I read him for at least a 7 and I had no further mechanism for determining his strength beyond the size of his bet.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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yes but 87, 88, 72 and 73 all have bigger full houses, which I suppose is the worry.

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Exactly. 8-8 didn't concern me, nor did 7-7. 8-7, 7-2 and 7-3 seemed like very realistic holdings, especially considering he's in the big blind and he's waking up forcefully on the river. At the time I honestly felt it was roughly a cointoss whether he had me or not.

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yes i see your concern, but i'm pretty sure he flips over the naked 7 and you take the pot.

but you probably played it safe, and right. nice post.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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At $25 NL, Its very likely he had an overpair like AA or KK here and has you on 8s.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] He's checking A-A or K-K from the BB with a field in front of him? And I'm open-limping 8-8 from MP? Then he goes nuts on the river after I seemingly value bet him on the turn?

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Yes
Play $25 NL and you'll won't go an hour with out seeing this.

They play AA like they flopped the nut boat. And are willing to put there stack in on the river, with a paired board, three to a flush... Its pretty amusing.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

He's pot committed by making that river bet. Put him all-in. If villain calls your flop raise with 27 and doesn't re-raise with 37 or 87 then why would he start betting the river? That 2 did not hurt you. 78 is the only holding I'm afraid of here.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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78 is the only holding I'm afraid of here.

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That was my number one fear.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

Not raising this river is criminal.

What did you put him on, and what was the basis for that read?

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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Not raising this river is criminal.

What did you put him on, and what was the basis for that read?

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like the thread says, a naked 7 or MAYBE 78.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

Bet a little more on the turn, push river.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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78 is the only holding I'm afraid of here.

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That was my number one fear.

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That makes sense that should be your number one fear - that's one of the the most likely hands that beat you here. The key idea is that it is NOT his most likely hand.

He checked out of the big blind - he could have, quite literally, any two. The ONLY hands that beat you are 77 (1), 88 (3), 87 (6), 73 (6), and 72 (6). The other hands he could have that he'd think are good include 99 (6), TT (6), JJ (6), QQ (6), KK (6), AA (6), x8 (~100), x7 (~60), 22 (3), and maybe any other pair (18). These severely outnumber the ones that have you beat. Even if you exclude some of the big pairs and the naked 8s, his losing range greatly exceeds his winning range.

You may have called and lost this hand, but at the 25's, a lot of people will think they're better more than they should. Your turn bet was weak, possibly encouraging his big bet on the end. Unless you have a strong read that this guy will fold the weaker holdings, you may want to take advantage of this.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

Fine. But if his river bet is air, he's not calling a raise anyway, is he? Yes, your counting is correct...there are a lot more hands that beat me than don't beat me. No, I don't think A-A is even possible. The only worse hands that call a raise include a 7 or maybe a very passively played 9-9 that feels pot committed.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

If he were deeper, I think you can make a stronger argument for just calling. Personally, I don't mind just calling here, but that's just me. Given his stack size and the donkishness of 25NL, you will certainly get called by a naked 7 here, which makes pushing a very acceptable alternative. I could go either way here. Flip a coin. If villain was a bit deeper, I think I would lean to just calling.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

This I agree with completely. I am 97% convinced he holds something he's quite fond of. Because he's relatively shallow, I considered just pushing and letting the chips fall where they may. It's probably the longest I've ever deliberated about my play online (especially micro limits).

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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Fine. But if his river bet is air, he's not calling a raise anyway, is he?

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Completely correct, and a strong idea. You don't want to raise when only better hands will call you. In this particular case, if a naked 7 will call you, and the chances of a naked 7 outweigh the odds you're laying, then by all means raise.

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The only worse hands that call a raise include a 7 or maybe a very passively played 9-9 that feels pot committed.

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Taking your example, the number of hands you beat is 66, the number that beat you is 22. You are WAY ahead of this range.

Even if you only allow for A7, K7, 99, and 22, you should call.

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Even if you only allow for A7, K7, 99, and 22, you should call.

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I did, lol.

Re: Another bottom set post
 

Err, you know what I mean [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Raise him!

Re: Another bottom set post
 

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Err, you know what I mean [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Raise him!

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I guess to an extent I factored in the fact that he'd be passive the entire time I was at the table, and he hadn't done anything way out of line. I had no previous hands with him after looking through my PT database...mostly because it's been forever since I've played at $25 NL.