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-   -   Odds with suited aces (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=406763)

12-28-2005 09:14 PM

Odds with suited aces
 
I have been playing suited aces (e.g., A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) for cheap pre-flop. My plan is to jettison the hand if I don't flop either two pair or a flush-draw or better. I have been having trouble figuring the odds of this occurrence. I know that the odds of flopping a flush draw and of flopping two pair with unpaired cards, but I am having trouble figuring the odds of hitting either (a flush, trips, two pair, or a flush draw). I'm pretty sure that I am double counting some of my hoped for outcomes. Any help that I can get would be great.

Thanks in advance,

Vince

ohnonotthat 12-28-2005 09:50 PM

Re: Odds with suited aces
 
Flopped full house = 18

Flopped flush = 165

Flopped [flush] draw = 2,145 (Approximately 1 in 6 of these will include a pair on the board . . . 9h-3h-3s, however some will give YOU a pair and a draw . . . Ac-9h-3h for example).

Flopped trip 6s = 132

Flopped trip As = 132 (Not much of a flop to A-6)

Flopped two-pair = 396 (This refers only to flops of A-6-X. Flops such as A-2-2 are not counted as these two pair are not what you're aiming for - doubly true for A-7-7)

*

Bottom line is you'll get a flop you either like, love, or worship approximately 1 time in 7.

*

Note that the threat of being counterfeited when you do flop two pair is worthy of consideration. This will occur just over 4% of the time if the third flop card is below your "6" and ~ 12.5% of the time if the odd card is a above your "6".

Leading to the caveat, if you don't have the extra bonus of making a straight (A-2,3,4,5) the higher the better; A-9 is quite a bit better than A-6 - for this in addition to other reasons. The difference is not as pronounced as with A-K vs A-J but there is a notable diference.

12-28-2005 10:01 PM

Re: Odds with suited aces
 
Thanks for the response, Ohno. I was trying to figure it out with factorials and was running into problems. I should have just looked at the ways that each given outcome could occur.

You also bring up great points about a flopped two-pair getting counterfeited. I am pretty good at getting away from those, though.

johnsy 12-28-2005 10:59 PM

Re: Odds with suited aces
 
The key to playing these hands is playing them well.....


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