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-   -   Tough river decision (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=406560)

ahnuld 12-28-2005 02:54 PM

Tough river decision
 
400nl 6max on party. I think I have a TAG image for a change. PRF seems solid enough. Other guy is a bit loose but nothing big. Villan makes it 12 UTG, loosey calls, I call on button with 77. 3 of us take the flop. Effective stacks about 600.

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I check behind like a good boy. Turn is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] PRF bets 20 into 40. Loosey min raises to 40. I make it 100 even. Maybe I should bet more but they drawing slim and I want action from a AJ type hand or a flush. PRF is the only caller. 280 in pot.

River is an A (offsuit?). Villan leads for 175. Call raise or fold?

12-28-2005 03:48 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
i call

i think he has trip j's

dont want to raise then get reraised alln by kj aj

ahnuld 12-28-2005 03:52 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
What kicker could he have that isnt a fh if he has a J? and you think he leads the river in that case? Think of my most likely hands and the action.

12-28-2005 04:01 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
175/455, you have to be right less than ~40% of the time to profit. I'd say, given the play of the hand, 50% of the time that A on the river cripples you. I see two things happening here that are by far more concrete than some kind of cute play with KhQh. First, he was slow playing a full house from the get go, KK. That's just entirely possible and somewhat clever. Or, two, he hit his A for a full house on the river. The KhQh is less satifsying considering that he would probably make some kind of bet on the flop and just let it go if he met aggression. I'd lay this down, begrudglingly, and perhaps only in theory.

jrforman 12-28-2005 04:02 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
What kicker could he have that isnt a fh if he has a J? and you think he leads the river in that case? Think of my most likely hands and the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure if I completely understand what your saying here, but I don't think re-raising here is a good idea. It seems highly likely he has Kings full here given the action and leads out wanting to get paid given the strength you showed on the turn. I think its unlikely he has a naked jack that by reraising would be +EV in the long run. I honestly think you can come close to finding a fold here, but my default would be to call and pay him off here most likely.

scdavis0 12-28-2005 04:07 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
The turn raise is a mistake. This is a classic way ahead/way behind situation and there are about two hands that you can beat here that will give you action (QJ/AJ). Worse hands get away easy.

Use your position to evaluate the river action to maximize gains and minimize losses. Obviously raising this river would be horrible. I can't think of a hand you can beat.

ahnuld 12-28-2005 04:10 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
I was arguing a fold, not a raise.

jrforman 12-28-2005 04:27 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
Ok wasnt sure thanks for clearing that up. Taking another look at the action folding here is probably the best course of action.

12-28-2005 04:38 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
I think it's funny that the option of "re-raising" here is included, basically out of instinct, like a starved animal rushing toward a fresh slab of poisoned meat.

There has been some discussion as to the turn. First of all, there is a loose player in the mix here, so if loosey decides to do something silly like call your raise or push, well, then that's all the benefit to you. What you don't want is to just call the turn bet of 20 and give loosey super-duper odds. So, no, raising here was appropriate, and I think 100 is a fine raise. An AJ or QJ can't get out of the hand. KJ is a possibility, but that 20 to 40 bet just reeks of AJ or QJ; besides, you're not getting out of this hand and you are most certainly not wanting to give loosey a free card. On the other hand, AJ or QJ is not getting out of the way when a [censored]' 7 of hearts comes on the board on the turn for a raise to 100 unless he has KQ or something of that ass variety. Even if he does, it may be a flush draw KQ, and he'll probably feel obliged to stick around. Anyway, he may make a crying call or raise all in, but he's not folding. If he does raise all in on the turn, well, perhaps he has a higher full house to yours. At this point, given your information, you'd probably have to call on the turn and then good luck to him if he hit.

Now, on the river, you have so much more information. Your raise on the turn gives you the opportunity to fold on the river. If you folded, you played the hand correctly, sir.

Argun

12-28-2005 04:40 PM

Re: Tough river decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's funny that the option of "re-raising" here is included, basically out of instinct, like a starved animal rushing toward a fresh slab of poisoned meat.

[/ QUOTE ]

good stuff


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