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- - A22 hand (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=346265)

B&M 4/8 game, in the small blind you pick up AJ22 rainbow.

4 limp to you, you just complete, BB checks.

Flop is AA2. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

Well... you can't lose except for perfect perfect quads, but you'll probably split the pot with a rough low.

Might as well juice up the pot. Go for a check-raise.

I don't think anyone is going to bet this flop though or I'd agree with the checkraise...I would take my chances and bet this out. Anyone with 2 low cards is going to stick around anyway to see if they can hit the low. Might as well make them pay for that liberty.

And I would vomit if I gave a free card and someone with the case ace got a free chance to hit a higher full house...make them pay too, because they aren't leaving either.

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Well... you can't lose except for perfect perfect quads, but you'll probably split the pot with a rough low.

Might as well juice up the pot. Go for a check-raise.

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Hero definitely can lose this pot. Just about any card in the deck makes a higher full house possible. Bet out and charge the lows and the case ace to draw.

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Well... you can't lose except for perfect perfect quads, but you'll probably split the pot with a rough low.

Might as well juice up the pot. Go for a check-raise.

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Hero definitely can lose this pot. Just about any card in the deck makes a higher full house possible. Bet out and charge the lows and the case ace to draw.

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Am I missing something?

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Well... you can't lose except for perfect perfect quads, but you'll probably split the pot with a rough low.

Might as well juice up the pot. Go for a check-raise

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Im not check-raising here. Very unlikley you will get someone to bet, and you might be giving free cards here which is exactly the opposite of what you want. Some people might play this slow, but Im playing this as fast as possible. Im betting and raising at every chance. Im leading out, if get raised ... Im coming over the top. Its my attempt to mask my hand a bit and most importantly try to keep the low draws out that will cost you half the pot.

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Am I missing something?

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Are you? Any card on 4th street, besides an A, 2, or J, no longer gives you the nuts for high.

ie: An 8 comes on the turn, board reads AA28. Anyone with A8 has now outdrawn you. Is this what you are asking? I mean its not that difficult is it?

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Am I missing something?

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Are you? Any card on 4th street, besides an A, 2, or J, no longer gives you the nuts for high.

ie: An 8 comes on the turn, board reads AA28. Anyone with A8 has now outdrawn you. Is this what you are asking? I mean its not that difficult is it?

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Double post.

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Am I missing something?

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Are you? Any card on 4th street, besides an A, 2, or J, no longer gives you the nuts for high.

ie: An 8 comes on the turn, board reads AA28. Anyone with A8 has now outdrawn you. Is this what you are asking? I mean its not that difficult is it?

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Read it wrong, my sincere apologies to you, your family, and anyone else that this has caused deep pain to.

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Read it wrong, my sincere apologies to you, your family, and anyone else that this has caused deep pain to.

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Sincere apologies are the best. Accepted.

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And I would vomit if I gave a free card and someone with the case ace got a free chance to hit a higher full house...make them pay too, because they aren't leaving either.

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I had a very similar hand, I held A24X and the flop came AA4, it was capped right to showdown 3-way and it turns out the guy with the lone Ace, hits the river card for a higher boat. Pissed me right off.
I think all you can do is get as much money in the pot and hope for the best.

You will also be amazed at how often the person holding the case ace will call down with his trip aces. Usually, this person won't bet on the flop. Bet and make him pay to chase.

Thanks everyone for the comments.

I was happy and sad to see this flop. As others have noted, there's a very good chance (I'm guessing > 90%) that the case ace is in play in which case he's got ~9 outs to beat me. Not to mention I'm likely to split the pot.

Anyways, I decided to play the flop fast then see what happened on the turn. Two players called without much problem. The turn was a Q, not the scariest of cards but I would have much rather have seen a middle card. I probably should have bet here, but instead decided to check-call.

Now things get interesting... first caller bets, and second caller raises. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Now what do I do?

You can't check that turn, for this very reason. Now you start thinking you're beat, and you think about folding. Don't. I think the raiser thought you were bluffing and thinks his loose Ace is good. Just call down. I don't think the first caller is gonna reraise unless he has queens full.

If you had put the bet in you would have probably only gotten raised by the AQ House, and wouldn't have to worry about possibly calling 3-4 bets on the turn. Sucks for you [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I'm gonna end up paying this off, it's gonna be 10+ bets by the river and there's no low on the board yet(7.5 bets to you at this point on the turn?) so you are still looking to scoop. If a low hits the river, eh...I'll have to think about that.

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What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Modaddy - Bet the flop for sure. What to do next will depend on the turn and any possible reads you may have on your opponents, but you should probably lead with this all the way to the showdown.

You bet the flop both to charge the low draws and also charge anyone who might be drawing with the case ace.

Since you can see seven cards after the flop, there are 45 cards whose whereabouts are unknown to you. Your five opponents have 20 cards between them and the case ace may be one of those twenty cards. But there are another 25 cards your five opponents do not have, and the case ace may also be one of those twenty five cards. The odds are thus 25 to 20 (5 to 4) against any of your five opponents having the case ace.

You won't get the holder of the case ace to drop by betting, but you'll make him pay for the privelege of trying to draw out against you. And assuming the complete hand of the holder of the case ace is A345, any three four or five without a jack or deuce beats you.
279/820 = 0.340 is probability anyone who has a hand like A345 (or any hand that has none of your own cards and also doesn't have a pair) will draw out on you. That makes you about a two to one favorite against such an opponent.

Roughly, then, .34*20/45= 0.151, and you're about a 17 to 3 favorite.

Bet and (usually) collect when you're the big favorite for high. Period.

Buzz

Interstingly, as a Pot Limit hand, I am very pessimistic and not willing to put much money into it and watch it spiral out of my control. Mathmatically the analysis that the case Ace may be one of the cards NOT held I think fails to take into account the fact that if the Ace was one of the 36 other cards dealt to one of your opponents, chances are it is still in play. Which means that in reality you are probably a little better than 65% likely to win the hi. BUT, if there is a low, you are certain to lose it. And the chances of a low coming are about 64 percent.

AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!! Not only are you going to lose on percentage basis with this hand, as soon as the turn comes, you are going to have no idea whatsoever where you stand in the hand, and the betting has a good chance of being Stacked.

Therefore, in PL, I check this hand and the ONLY cards I even consider calling on the turn are high cards.

Plug in some other Ace hands in two dimes and see how bad off you really are.

---- but I am thinking about this in Pot Limit terms which makes it much worse of a hand. I suppose in limit you probably do bet it and hope your hi holds up, and a couple lows come along for the ride.

slight math correction

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279/820 = 0.340 is probability anyone who has a hand like A345 (or any hand that has none of your own cards and also doesn't have a pair) will draw out on you. That makes you about a two to one favorite against such an opponent.

Roughly, then, .34*20/45= 0.151, and you're about a 17 to 3 favorite.

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My apologies. I left out 9 two-card combinations favorable to the A345 hand.

Make it 288/820 = 0.351 instead of
279/820 = 0.340.

Then make it .351*20/45 = 0.156

And you're about a 13 to 2 favorite over an opponent with an ace and three other ranks of cards you don't hold. (There are some other cases, but you're a big favorite over an opponent who hasn't flopped the same full house as you, no matter what).

I still think you bet it straight-away and charge everybody to draw.

My apologies for math errors.

Buzz

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Mathmatically the analysis that the case Ace may be one of the cards NOT held I think fails to take into account the fact that if the Ace was one of the 36 other cards dealt to one of your opponents,....

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Mendacious - Good point.

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....chances are it is still in play.

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Well... sort of. I'll fold lots of hands with poorly connected aces, and I think I'm not alone. A78Kn, for example is a horrid starting hand in a limit game, and not even the worst example I could come up with. Hard to estimate the percentages, but I'll maybe fold a third of the hands with aces I'm dealt.

Thus a truer breakdown in a ten handed game would be somewhere in between 20/45 and 36/45 - maybe closer to 30/45 than either of the extremes in a ten handed game. I play mostly nine handed, so that I'm thinking 28/45 is a better estimate than 20/45 for my usual games.

At any rate, I'll call it 30/45 instead of 20/45 for a ten handed game. On reflection, I agree 30/45 is better than 20/45. (Maybe 31/45 is even better for some very loose ten handed games).

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Which means that in reality you are probably a little better than 65% likely to win the hi.

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No.

Hero is slightly better than 65% to encounter an opponent with an ace - but that opponent still has to have a card the same rank as one of his other cards appear on the turn or river - and without also a deuce or a jack on the river or turn. For that there are several cases, the most common of which is the case where the opponent with the ace has no other cards matching Hero's cards and also has no pair. And that figures to about 288/820.

(2/3)*(288/820) = 0.234.

That makes Hero slightly better than a three to one favorite to win for high.

Hero should bet to charge the lows to draw and also to charge any other possible opponent with an ace to draw.

36/45 is not correct for the probability of facing an opponent with an ace - but even using 36/45 makes Villain's chances to win _for high only 28% or so.

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AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!!

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I don't think that's true. If you give Villain a hand with an ace plus two low cards, Hero is a dog, because Hero can rarely, if ever, make a winning low while Villain is a big favorite to make a winning low when it is possible, which is more often than not thus forcing Hero to split most of the time. But it's more like 55 to 45.

And, considering that this is a limit game and Hero has multiple opponents, that is not the situation anyhow. Hero is not one-on-one with an opponent who has the case ace plus two low cards.

It's possible Hero could end up that way, and it's possible Hero could lose this hand - but there are also various other possibilities that I think are much more likely.

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Therefore, in PL, I check this hand and the ONLY cards I even consider calling on the turn are high cards.

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You'd be making a huge mistake playing that way, even in a pot limit game.

You're still at least a 72 to 28 favorite to win for high, even in pot limit, when you hold A22J and the flop is AA2. Even if nobody ever folds a hand with an ace and you're playing in a ten handed game.

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Plug in some other Ace hands in two dimes and see how bad off you really are.

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Now you're giving your one opponent an ace plus a probable cinch for low. Without bothering to run it, I'll grant that Hero is a dog.

But let's make Hero's hand and the flop what they are (A22J and AA2), and let's give Villain a hand that simply contains an ace plus three random cards.

Isn't that more reasonable?

And if you do that, it's about 51 to 49 in favor of Hero. (I just did the sim, using Wilson's simulator which, unlike twodimes.net, allows such a distribution of known cards plus random cards).

Hey, I'm surprised it was so close. I thought Hero would be way out ahead. And Hero is way ahead for the high end. But the lack of a decent low after being double counterfeited hurts Hero more than one opponent with an ace plus random cards. Neither Hero nor Villain with one ace plus three random cards makes low 5774 times in 10000, but when somebody does make a winning low, 4226 times in 10000, it's almost always Villain with the winning low.

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...but I am thinking about this in Pot Limit terms which makes it much worse of a hand.

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O.K. I see that. Interesting.

It was very clear to me way before this thread that limit and pot limit are very different games. I try to stay out of pot limit posts for that reason.

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I suppose in limit you probably do bet it and hope your hi holds up, and a couple lows come along for the ride.

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No doubt about it in my own mind. You bet it and expect your high to hold up, and you also expect some lows to chase along, and maybe some poor high draws as well.

You seem to think Hero's high is not favored to hold up. But in truth, Hero's high is favored to hold up. I'll grant that Hero, having been already double counterfeited by the flop, has crap for low. But sometimes nobody will make a low and Hero will scoop. Most other times several opponents will make low and Hero will make high and get half the pot, after having contributed less than half the pot.

Sure, Hero can lose for high. _But that's not very likely.

You made a good point about opponents tending to play starting hands with aces and got me to recognize 20/45 was not the correct probability of encountering an ace. I don't think 36/45 is right either, at least for a typical limit game. But 30/45 is probably closer to the truth.

Thanks for that correction. Very good correction.

Bottom line: In a limit game Hero should definitely bet that hand/flop! Hero is about a three to one favorite to come away with the high half of the pot (even in a pot limit game) - and with vigorous betting might end up scooping and at least figures to end up with more than he contributes to the pot.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Thx. Buzz interesting reading.

Regarding my point that you are a 60/40 dog against any ace and 2 low cards, run it on 2 dimes and see. I think this is a huge range of likely hands that you are going to run into, and you are NEVER going to know when you are behind.

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and let's give Villain a hand that simply contains an ace plus three random cards.

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I'll fold lots of hands with poorly connected aces, and I think I'm not alone. A78Kn

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You can't have it both ways in your analysis that Villian is more likely to have A and random cards. If villian stays in, in my view it is VERY likely that he has A and low cards. They are the most commonly played cards. This hand will either win you a small amount/split pot, or get you steamrolled where you lose your stack.

And you will have no clue or control over it. Villian will have much better information about his hand, and can leverage the hell out of you.

And, again I am speaking to the hand in PL terms now.

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B&M 4/8 game, in the small blind you pick up AJ22 rainbow.

4 limp to you, you just complete, BB checks.

Flop is AA2. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Open-fold. Are you kidding me? So vulnerable to runner runner quads, and at best getting half the pot. Fking retard.

Good luck.

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B&M 4/8 game, in the small blind you pick up AJ22 rainbow.

4 limp to you, you just complete, BB checks.

Flop is AA2. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Open-fold. Are you kidding me? So vulnerable to runner runner quads, and at best getting half the pot. Fking retard.

Good luck.

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I like your style.

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B&M 4/8 game, in the small blind you pick up AJ22 rainbow.

4 limp to you, you just complete, BB checks.

Flop is AA2. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Open-fold. Are you kidding me? So vulnerable to runner runner quads, and at best getting half the pot. Fking retard.

Good luck.

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I like your style.

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Agreed. Smash fk'n rules. I think I'll go buy a speedboat with today's winnings.

Good luck.

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Regarding my point that you are a 60/40 dog against any ace and 2 low cards, run it on 2 dimes and see. I think this is a huge range of likely hands that you are going to run into, and you are NEVER going to know when you are behind.

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Mendacious - Been a while since I’ve run anything on twodimes.net. I agree it is pretty nifty. So as to have the results fit, I’m going to omit “Hitie,” “Lolos” and “Lotie,” which, because of the way I input the opposing hands, are all zeros.

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2h jd - ad 4s 6h 6c -- as ah 2d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2d Ah
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac Jd 2h---210---650---170-----0-----0.524
4s 6c Ad 6h---170---170---650----520----0.476

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2d jh - ad 3h 4h 5c -- as ah 2c
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2c Ah
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac 2d Jh---190---531---289-----0-----0.440
5c Ad 4h 3h---289---289---531----630----0.560

O.K., I agree you can come up with one-on-one hands for Villain such that Hero is the under-dog.

If we enable a straight flush for Villain, it’s even a bit worse for Hero.
pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2d jh - ad 4h 5h 6c -- as ah 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As Ah 2h
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac 2d Jh---190---501---319-----0-----0.421
6c Ad 5h 4h---319---319---501----630----0.579

I still don’t quite get to 60/40, but O.K., we can come up with various one-on-one hands such that Hero is the under-dog. However, in each case, Hero is only the under-dog because of low considerations. Even when we enable a straight flush for Villain, starting from the flop, Hero still wins high more often.

Well... wait, if I give Villain A234, so that Villain will start out with the same full house as Hero, and will also usually make a low, then Hero is way, way behind - probably even more than 60/40. But that’s really worrying about the monster hiding underneath your bed.

I agree that once you see the turn card, assuming it’s not a deuce or a jack, you can’t tell for certain if you’re still ahead. It’s true that an opponent holding the missing ace could pair one of his other cards on the turn. And that could also happen on the river.

But that isn’t _likely. The odds are against that happening.

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You can't have it both ways in your analysis that Villian is more likely to have A and random cards.

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But that’s not “both ways.” that’s just _one way - the most likely way.

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If villian stays in, in my view it is VERY likely that he has A and low cards.

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It makes sense to me that anyone with an ace who would see the flop will stick around after a flop with a pair of aces. Are you going to fold AKQJs after a flop of AA2 because you don’t have a low card? (I don’t think so).

I don’t know what kind of starting hands you people play in pot-limit Omaha-8. Would anybody play 2345s? or 3456-double-suited? If so, would that person stick around after a flop of AA2? (I would generally see the flop with both of those and then would stick around after a flop of AA2 in a limit game).

Sure, Villain certainly could hold an ace and low cards - but there seem various other possibilities. There absolutely are other possibilities in a limit game - and in a limit game there will generally be several opponents sticking around and drawing for low after this flop. I don’t know about pot-limit, but this is a time for blasting away in a limit game.

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They are the most commonly played cards.

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Yes there’s a good chance that if someone who has seen the flop has an ace there are low cards to go with the ace.

But gee whiz! Three of Hero’s opponents have seen the flop and there is only one missing ace!

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This hand will either win you a small amount/split pot, or get you steamrolled where you lose your stack.

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Sounds like you’re used to playing in tighter, tougher games than I encounter.

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And you will have no clue or control over it. Villian will have much better information about his hand, and can leverage the hell out of you. And, again I am speaking to the hand in PL terms now.

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Let me get this straight. When you hold A22J in the small blind in a pot limit game and the flop is AA2, you’re not going to bet? One of your opponents somehow has better information about his hand?

I understand that you’re out of position in the small blind - and I realize position is important in pot limit - but is it so important that you have to pussy foot around and give your opponents free cards when you flop aces full? And you’re not pussy footing because you’re trying to trap an opponent... you’re doing it because you think somebody has a better hand.

Isn't that a bit paranoid?

Is that what playing pot limit Omaha-8 does to people?

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Buzz

Buzz-- AA2J rainbow is behind EVERY SINGLE Ace and two low cards hands. ALL of them. This is not monster under the bed.

If your opponent has Ace, which you admit will happen a large percentage of the time, I believe it is statistically MOST likely that he has at least 2 other low cards with it.

If your opponent holds and Ace, there are 25 more low cards in the deck, and only 19 remaining hi cards. Clearly it is more probable that of his other 3 cards, it is more likely that 2 or more are low than 2 or more are hi. I'd say it is about 58/42 if the Ace is in someone's hand. then you are behind, and in a substantial number of those cases it approaches 60/40 that you are behind.

With 3 callers in the hand I think there is a GREAT chance that the Ace is in one of their hands, and almost a 58/42 chance that if it is you are quite a bit behind. These odds get rapidly worse if the Ace is calling your bets or firing back.

Bottom line, its not that valuable a hand no matter how nice it looks.

Now if the other low draws keep pumping money into the pot, you are going to be +EV, in my experience, and I HAVE had this scenario more than a few times in PL, you wind up heads up against the other Ace and a low draw, and you are in a losing situation.

two dimes A34K vs AA2J hand

I think you mean A22J not AA2J

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AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!! Not only are you going to lose on percentage basis with this hand, as soon as the turn comes, you are going to have no idea whatsoever where you stand in the hand, and the betting has a good chance of being Stacked.

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Wow, I didn't look at any numbers..I find it surprising that we're 60-40 to another Ace-low hand. Is that on the flop? Interesting. Luckily, we have many other players in the hand...I'll have to take a look at that, though Buzz seems to have taken care of that for us [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Some nice number crunching there man.

Wait a second, I don't have to look at any other numbers. We might be behind heads up, but no way we're behind with 4 players in it. Even if we bet, only the A hand calls and everyone else folds are we behind on the turn? No way we're behind.

Using your example on the turn we're now a large favorite with that Queen dropping. And in the OP's game he had callers along with him, so he's even further ahead of the field and has players drawing dead padding the pot for him. No way you fold this, and OP was incorrect in checking this turn. He should have bet it out and called a turn raise/cc river.

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AA2J rainbow is behind EVERY SINGLE Ace and two low cards hands. ALL of them.

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Mendacious - I don’t think that’s quite true. I ran several hands against Hero’s hand on twodimes.net, one of which was
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Here is the complete result as copied from the twodimes.net “simulation,” but using dashes to separate into columns:

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2h jd - ad 4s 6h 6c -- as ah 2d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2d Ah
cards-----scoop--HIwin--HIlos--HItie--LOwin--LOlos--LOtie--EV
2sAcJd2h----210----650----170-----0-----0-----0-----0-----0.524
4s6cAd6h----170----170----650-----0---520-----0-----0-----0.476

As you can see, the A446 hand, a hand with two different ranks of low cards, is an under-dog to the A22J hand after a flop of AA2. (Suits don’t matter, assuming a straight flush is not possible).

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This is not monster under the bed.

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Agreed. Ad2d3h4h after a flop of AsAh2h when you hold Ac2c2sJs is the monster.
pokenum -o8 ac 2c 2s js - ad 2d 3h 4h -- as ah 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As Ah 2h
cards-----scoop--HIwin--HIlos--HItie--LOwin--LOlos--LOtie--EV
Js2sAc2c-----69----114----241---465------0-----0-----0-----0.290
Ad2d4h3h---241----241----114---465---520-----0-----0-----0.710

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If your opponent has Ace, which you admit will happen a large percentage of the time, ........

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Yes. I’ll admit your opponent has an ace a large percentage of the time. My current thinking is roughly 30/45 or about two thirds of the time in a ten handed game when you hold A22J, the flop is AA2, and five of your opponents in a ten handed game see the flop with you.

In other words, I agree that 20/45 is too low but I still think 36/45 is too high. 30/45 seems more reasonable, because you’re right that people do tend to see the flop when they are dealt hands with aces, but some hands with aces are not very playable in limit Omaha-8. I don’t know, but the same would seem to be true in pot limit - true? (or is everything with an ace, aside from trips, playable)? I mean, do you play something like A-6-8-9-rainbow?

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....... I believe it is statistically MOST likely that he has at least 2 other low cards with it.

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Well... yes. But not by much. When you hold A22J and the flop is AA2, the probability an opponent with the missing ace has a hand with at least two distinct ranks of low cards, other than aces or deuces is, I think, 6560/12341 = 53.2%.

Then if you multiply that probability by the probability an opponent was dealt and played a hand with an ace, I think you’re in the neighborhood of 2/5. So... Very interesting... Roughly two times out of five, when you flop aces full of deuces with no shot at low in a full, ten handed game, you’ll be up against an opponent with a hand that’s probably better than yours. Hmm... I would not have thought, off-hand, you’d be the under-dog quite that often when you flop aces full of deuces.

But even so, you’re still the favorite. Three times out of five you won't be up against such a hand. And the two times out of five you are up against such a hand, you're still favored by about three to one to win for high.

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If your opponent holds and Ace, there are 25 more low cards in the deck, and only 19 remaining hi cards. Clearly it is more probable that of his other 3 cards, it is more likely that 2 or more are low than 2 or more are hi. I'd say it is about 58/42 if the Ace is in someone's hand. then you are behind, and in a substantial number of those cases it approaches 60/40 that you are behind.

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I think the probability of encountering an opponent with an ace plus at least two different ranks of low cards is in the neighborhood of about 0.4. (Actually, I think that's slightly on the high side for my normal limit games).

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With 3 callers in the hand I think there is a GREAT chance that the Ace is in one of their hands, and almost a 58/42 chance that if it is you are quite a bit behind.

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Only three see the flop with you? My figuring above was for five seeing the flop with you. Five callers have a total of 20 cards. Three callers have a total of 12 cards. With only three callers it’s even less likely that you’re up against an opponent with an ace and at least two low ranks. With nine original opponents, it’s somewhere between 12/45 and 36/45 that one of the three callers has a hand with the ace. I used 30/45 for five opponents.... Well.... All right, let’s give you the benefit of the doubt and still use 30/45 for three opponents. In that case, I think it’s about 3 to 2 that you are ahead.

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These odds get rapidly worse if the Ace is calling your bets or firing back.

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That makes a lot of sense to me in a pot limit game. I agree that if you bet the pot after a flop of AA2n where four of you saw the flop, it looks a lot like anyone who calls your bet has the missing ace. And if someone does have the missing ace, it’s slightly more likely than not (53:47) the missing ace is in a hand having at least two different ranks of low cards. Thus is looks very scary if someone calls your pot sized bet - and even scarier if you get raised.

You could get raised in a limit game too, but there it wouldn’t be scary. (You just call the raise and probably check/call the rest of the way).

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Bottom line, its not that valuable a hand no matter how nice it looks.

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I think A22J after a flop of AA2 is the favorite.

I’d rather have A234, or A34K (or some others after this flop). But without knowing you’re up against one of these, A22J is favored.

Bottom line: It’s most likely you are not up against a better hand.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of two times out of five you probably will be up against a better hand.

But the other three times out of five you’ll be the favorite.

In a pot limit game, if I bet the pot and got raised, I’d think it very well might be one of those times when somebody held a better hand. But even so, all is not lost; you’re still much the favorite for high. Looks mainly like you’re headed for a split pot, and with a big raise on top of your own bet, there won’t be many customers. Not good, but I think you call the raise.

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Now if the other low draws keep pumping money into the pot, you are going to be +EV,

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Yes. That’s the most likely scenario in a limit game.

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in my experience, and I HAVE had this scenario more than a few times in PL, you wind up heads up against the other Ace and a low draw, and you are in a losing situation.

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Yes. I think maybe that happens about two times out of five. Two out of five is often enough so that it’s not uncommon. That’s about the same as getting quartered or sixthed for low with ace-deuce-X-Y in a full limit game. When it happens a few times in a row, as it sometimes does, it can seem more likely than not (if you don’t know better).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Ok-- I agree with this virtually all of this last analysis-- where probability is concerned. The problem I have is that in PL if you are up against quality opponents, you are seldom going to come out way ahead on this hand, especially if you wind up heads up, and many times you will be stuck with terrible decisions about whether or not to continue knowing that you may get stacked. Once the turn comes, you have an inherently weak hand and are now on defense if any move is made by any player.

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Once the turn comes, you have an inherently weak hand and are now on defense if any move is made by any player.

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Mendacious - Makes perfect sense to me, especially for pot-limit. Even in a limit game I think you switch to a check/call defense if you get raised after you bet the turn (assuming the turn is not an ace, deuce, or jack).

In a limit game, I'm betting this flop and even if that bet geets raised, I'm also betting the turn, regardless of whether the turn is a low card or not.

I can see how your thinking for a pot limit game would be very different than mine for a limit game.

Thanks for the input.

Buzz

Everybody is saying to bet out instead of checking, but I'm not so sure. This hand is vulnerable. If you check it & raise a late position bettor, you can protect the hand more. If it is bet from an early position, I would just call & await developments. If it checks around, I would wish I had bet, of course, but if a non low card comes on the turn, I can bet & lose some people because the pot has stayed small & they only have 1 more card to draw to. If a wheel card comes I would check again & decide whether to raise, call or fold depending on the action.