AJo, bad river
 

Villian is 40/8/1.75

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls.

I am planning to call the river also.

River: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Re: AJo, bad river
 

I fold to the turn c/r

This board is pretty draw heavy (any club sucks, and pair doesn't thrill me.. and there are straight cards that can come), the pot isn't huge.. getting 4:1 for this call kind of sucks in my opinion (the 8:1 on the turn is fake because you have to call a river bet every time if your calling this c/r).. even with a villian with 40%vpip and 1.5af

Tell me your thoughts on this, but this is my impression..

Re: AJo, bad river
 

I can't put MP3 on a hand with any confidence, but I guess clubs, 75s, KJ, Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J, and 44 are all possible, among others.

There's a decent chance MP3 doesn't like that river card either (how does he feel about it if he's holding 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?), but I doubt he's folding. And you do now lose to hands like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which is unfortunate. (And, of course, hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] also just outdrew you.)

In any event, I don't think I'd let the river card change my plan. I'd probably still pay off. MP3 is pretty aggressive, and I can see him having a hand that you beat.

I don't like your chances very much, though.

Re: AJo, bad river
 

I was talking to Borno earlier. He said that if you can't call the river regardless of what card comes, then you shouldn't call a turn checkraise. This is a clear calldown situation without three clubs on the board. I think it is also correct to calldown any non-club river. Otherwise, you are giving away too much in a heads-up situation against a loose and fairly aggressive opponent.

Re: AJo, bad river
 

I think calling the turn checkraise is fine. If I did that though, right or wrong, I would have paid off on the river.

I'd expect to lose, probably to some two-pair or better hand Villain turned, but I wouldn't be shocked to see J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

MP3 could have picked up a draw on the turn, but he could also be trying to represent a flush while actually having the same marginal made hand he had on the flop.

I don't think this will be the case all that often, but Villain is pretty aggressive for his VP$IP.

Re: AJo, bad river
 

Easy fold for me. This goes in the microlimits.