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-   -   Flopped a set... should I fold it? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=408378)

12-31-2005 09:53 PM

Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
Going from memory...

Hero (UTG) $25 ---- dealt 6/6
Villian #1 (CO) $15
Villian #2 (Button) $15

I limp, so does most everyone else, 8 guys see the flop:

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2 in pot)

Checked to me
Hero bets $3.
Folds around to CO
CO calls $3.
Button calls $3.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($11 in pot)
Hero checks.
CO bets $6.
Button calls.
Hero..... ?

jsnipes28 12-31-2005 09:59 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
Assuming at least one of them has the straight you have to just look at the odds you are being laid here. There is 23 in the pot and you have to call 6, 23:6 is slightly less than 4:1 and you are about 4.5:1 to fill up i believe. Which means that you need to recoup >$3 on the river if you fill up in order for this to be profitable. Since both villains only have $5 behind they are not going to fold a stragiht on the river. Assuming that only one of them calls on the river when you fill up a call is just barely justifiable.

It's +EV barely, but you are not going to win many of these pots.
Edit: I think it might be ~3.6:1 (46-10:10) Which makes this a clear call. Plus you have at least two eights that would bring a split and the remote possibility that you have the best hand.

12-31-2005 10:11 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
46-10 ? I'm not sure I follow...?

12-31-2005 10:14 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
Of the 46 remaining cards in the deck, 10 will give you either a full house or quads.

12-31-2005 11:02 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
Clear fold

gol4pro 12-31-2005 11:03 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
Clear call-- you're getting 4:1 pot odds.... plus some implied. River the boat and stack both of them off.

12-31-2005 11:15 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
:-)

12-31-2005 11:18 PM

Re: Flopped a set... should I fold it?
 
No, I'd call these guys are too loose to fold too.


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