Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Party 5/10

Fishy limps UTG he was the 43/5 type...

I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] next to act.

Solidish if slightly passive preflop player (~25/11) 3 bets me.

Loose passive OTB calls three cold.

Blinds fold, UTG calls, I call.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG checks, I check, Preflop raiser bets, button calls, UTG calls, I raise, they call call.

Turn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, pfr folds, button and UTG call.

River 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets out, what's my move here?

UTG could have a 4, but he sure doesn't have to. The button is a calling station and he could easily overcall if I decline to raise. There's a slimmer change he'd call two cold anyway. Your thoughts?

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I'd go for the overcall.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I'd hate to get 3-bet here. I'd also hate to lose button's call with a raise.

If we call, we win 2 or lose 1. I'd much prefer this over taking a chance at winning 4 but maybe losing 3.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I'd raise. BT likes calling so give him the chance to CC two more. I just don't believe UTG at all so I'd make sure I got another bet out of what ever he has.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

The only 4 I could ever see being played this way is Xs4s, but the 4s is out, or maybe a funky two-pair, who you'd usually hear from on the turn. He might be a wuss due to the flush draw, but then he'd probably c/r the river.

I say raise. If button calls 3-cold preflop, he'll likely call 2-cold with most pairs on the river in a big pot. Getting 3-bet stinks, but hey, so does shaving.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

raise. button will call the 2 bets cuz he cant stand to lose with his JJ, and UTG is a moron who will still call with whatever hand he decided he would outplay everyone on the river with by betting.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I just go for overcalls. UTG waking up on the river means one of five things: 1) He has a king and figures the river counterfeited a lower two pair of yours. 2) A fourth flush card didn't come so now he's value-betting a random hand (pocket pair, a king, etc etc). 3) He's trying to represent a four on a pure bluff or semi bluff. 4) He actually has a four. 5) He has the world's worst-played baby flush but doesn't want to try for a check raise and wimped out on the turn.

He's only calling your raise here if he's on a king, some random pair, a four or a baby flush. I don't really know if we're ahead 55 % of the time that he calls - and even if we are, it seems the button will overcall a lot more often if we don't raise it.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Raise.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I like the overcall.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I like the overcall.

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.

News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.

I want to get in more than 1 more bet. He's not bet/folding because he's not that smart. Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.

Combine all these factors and you can earn more by raising. The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.

Simple enough?

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Ok I'm going to try and solve this problem using some math.

Let X be the probability that Hero is ahead of UTG
Let Y be the probability that Hero is behind UTG

Let A be the probability that Button overcalls 1 BB
Let B be the probability that Button calls 2 BB

Let C be the probability that UTG calls your raise when he is behind
Let D be the probability that UTG 3-bets your raise when he is ahead

Constraint:
X + Y = 1

Equation 1: EV of calling UTG's bet = (1 + A)X - Y
Equation 2: EV of raising UTG's bet = (2B + 2C)X - (3D)Y

This is assuming you always call a 3-bet from UTG. UTG never 3-bets a worse hand and never folds a better one.

I'm going to tackle this problem from the angle where I don't know how often Hero is ahead or behind here, but I have some idea of how the calling station will act, as well as UTG.

So I will let X and Y be the unknowns.

Basically I want to find the tipping point where both raising and calling have the same EV. If they have the same EV, then I can combine equations 1 and 2 together:

(1 + A)X - Y = (2B + 2C)X - (3D)Y

Using the constraint equation (X + Y = 1) I will put Y in terms of X.

(1 + A)X - (1 - X) = (2B + 2C)X - (3D)(1 - X)

Solving for X yields:

X = (1 - 3D) / (2 + A - 2B - 2C - 3D)

If you want X in terms of percent, just multiply it by 100%.

I think this equation can be used re-used in this kind of situation all the time, and it is a situation that does happen somewhat often. I'd like to maybe try and generalize it some more later on with a variable number of possible overcallers, when I have a bit of free time.

Now just an example, here are some numbers that might be reasonable:

I will let:
A = 0.8 (= 80%)
B = 0.1 (= 10%)
C = 1 (= 100%)
D = 1 (= 100%)

If you feel that these are unreasonable assignments of the variables, you can change them and plug them into the equation above and see how the results change.

Anyways, it gives us a result that X ~ 83%. So Hero needs to be ahead of UTG greater than 83% of the time in order for raising to be superior to going for the overcall.

The next step would be to put a weighted range of hands on UTG, and to see how that range compares to X. Ofcourse you can argue the values that I chose for A, B, C, and D are wrong. You can also get into long-winded arguments about how often Hero is ahead. I think the best way to do it is to play around with the numbers and see how the result changes. Assume a bad case for Hero and if the answer is still clear cut, then fiddling with the numbers a bit is irrelevant.

I slapped together a quick spreadsheet so that you can play around with the numbers and see the result a lot quicker:

http://rapidshare.de/files/10003408/...Raise.xls.html

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I like the overcall.

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.

News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.

I want to get in more than 1 more bet. He's not bet/folding because he's not that smart. Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.

Combine all these factors and you can earn more by raising. The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.

Simple enough?

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Ah I see exactly what you mean!

In that case ..... I call. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

They always seem to have the 4 when I raise here, damn runner runner!

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

great post

B is a lot higher than 10% tho

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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great post

B is a lot higher than 10% tho

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Oh and just by looking at the equation, you can see that:

B makes twice as much of an impact as compared to A
C makes twice as much of an impact as compared to A
D doesn't matter too much. I mean it still makes a difference but because it's in the numerator and denominator the effect of the 3 is attenuated.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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great post

B is a lot higher than 10% tho

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D is a lot less than 100%, too.

Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best:

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I'd go for the overcall.

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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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great post

B is a lot higher than 10% tho

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D is a lot less than 100%, too.

Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best:

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here.

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Yup you're right. I just felt the raise vs. overcall is a frequent question on these boards and that using the math I did should prove helpful in a tougher spot.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I like the overcall.

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.

News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.

I want to get in more than 1 more bet. He's not bet/folding because he's not that smart. Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.

Combine all these factors and you can earn more by raising. The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.

Simple enough?

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Very nice concise thorough explanation, thanks.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best:

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here.

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Not saying that you're wrong, but I'm not yet convinced.

Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.

I agree that it is most likely that UTG is full of [censored]. But 90%+, I don't know. And what do we do if 3-bet? I can't fold so basically then we are losing 3 bets.

I think the question for me is, do we win 4 bets often enough to overcome the times that we lose 3? Maybe so, but I'm still pondering. Either way, I don't think this is as obvious as you say. I may come around though, don't give up on me yet.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is.

Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range...

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Yeah, pretty much anything he's folding he'd likely fold for 1 bet, too.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

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Ok so since people are still saying you should call I'll put in some more reasonable numbers into my formula.

A = 0.8
B = 0.4 (I think 0.7 is way too high)
C = 1
D = 0.75

Hero needs to be ahead only ~56% of the time to make raising the correct play. TheMetetron has already said it is greater than 90%... but even if you disagree with that, surely it is higher than 56%!

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is.

Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range...

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he called 3 cold PF, that screams PP or Big ace, hes done nothing but call multiple bets post flop, he isnt going to suddenly wake up and realize his hand sucks now. He also is always calling 2 if he has any K and prolly a big part of the time with a 9. If he just has a big ace that called the turn with a flush draw, hes prolly folding for 1 bet.

either way it doesnt matter, you should be raising this HU vs UTG, the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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you should be raising this HU vs UTG

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i agree with this



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the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better.

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hm. ok i can buy this.



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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I pondered this one for a while. Of course the first sentence is true. I think I've been convinced that the second sentence is true.



And fizzle, thanks for writing out the equation, great work.

You guys have won me over.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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Are Party players really this dumb or are you guys playing micro limits? Yes there was crazy action preflop and he called three cold. Everyone slows down on the turn and there are a lot of loose passives that give up on the river. I think facing him with two cold will scare him away the majority of the time while calling here will get him to put an extra bet in the pot.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.


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I like very much schooling, and you speak with much authority.

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News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.


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What is the basis for your assumptions that he "just about never has a 4 here" and that our hand is good ">90% of the time" here? I understand it's your opinion, but you make it seem like this is a given without need for further explanation.

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Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.


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What % of the time is the player behind us going to call 2 cold with a worse hand? Even if he is a calling station and will call with a K (and sometimes less), I think the times he calls two cold with a K or worse is less than those times when he calls (or even raises) with a better hand. This is the one problem with fizzle's interesting mathematical analysis -- he does not provide for those times when the player behind us has us beat.

I also think that those times when the original bettor three bets a worse hand is very low, and lower than those times when he is holding a 4.

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I agree that the overcall from the player behind us is not guaranteed, but don't we have to consider the 1 BB already put in by the original bettor so that the overcall is greater than 1 BB if one considers those times when the player behind us calls with a worse hand.

Also I don't agree that the raise necessarily has a value of more than 1 BB when taking into consideration those times when the player behind us calls (or raises) with a better hand along with those times where the original bettor does.

IMO, this seems like one of those times where the liklihood that you will lose two bets is higher than those times when you win more than two bets so that a call is the best play.

I'm not saying your wrong, but before taking your opinion of the correct play as fact, I'd like a little deeper knowledge of your underlying assumptions.

Simple enough? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Yes they're really this dumb. A big K will call this always. QQ-TT will call this > 80% of the time by a guy like this. A 9 will call a lot. He'll sometimes fold, but a lot of the hands he's folding is a lone spade and something like QJ or JT that missed.

Again, you can't guarantee he's overcalling, either. So even if he folds faced with two, the one BB you get from UTG is worth it.

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

Interesting analysis, most of which is over my head, but what about accounting for those times when the player behind us has the better hand and calls or even raises?

Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
 

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Interesting analysis, most of which is over my head, but what about accounting for those times when the player behind us has the better hand and calls or even raises?

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Given the player, action, and board, I think this probability is essentially negligible.