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- - River AQ (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=377123)

I have reads on everyone except the Villain who is unknown so this hand is essentially reeeaaaddddlleesssssss.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: I am el Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, I raise, SB calls, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, I bet, SB folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, I raise, BB folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

River: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, I go and is it close?

raise it. for him to bet donking his draw on the turn makes no sense whatsoever.

I don't think its close at all. Raise that mo'fo

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

getting double donked blows, I think the pussy in me just calls the river. though raising it is probably the smart play

[ QUOTE ]
getting double donked blows, I think the pussy in me just calls the river. though raising it is probably the smart play

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cause he has a set of twos or sixes? Which are the only hands I can think he might have, that we wouldn't want to three bet. we would have heard from TT or QQ much earlier

No way, much more likely he has a hand we beat.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

well, I did say the pussy in me calls, I didn't say that is was neccessarily the right play

Weird. The only hand I can think of that improved on both the turn and river that you still beat is AT.

Still, that makes more sense than a hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I guess (or KJ or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

Who knows what Villain has, really. Pocket 2's, maybe. I can see myself raising or calling, depending on my mood.

There are 3 things to consider here, and 2 of them lead me to call, 1 of them leads me to raise:

1) Josh.'s (sthief's) theory of river donks: Our opponents like to check and call their okay hands on the river; thus a bet often means either a bluff or a monster. Either way, raising does nothing because they will fold their bad hands and 3-bet their nuts. Conclusion: CALL.

2) Villain could easily have made a worse aces-up on the river, and he will not fold this -- so maybe Josh.'s theory doesn't apply in this case. Conclusion: RAISE.

3) Villain's turn donk reads like a semi-bluff, and there are two draws: KJ for the OESD, and spades, for the flush. Both just got there on the river. Since Villain limped in the CO after a couple limpers, having a suited connector in spades is certainly a possible hand. And since I'd find it tough to fold to a 3-bet, I don't want to risk 2 bets to win one. Conclusion: CALL.

So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close.

[ QUOTE ]
So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close.

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Thats wrong because you don't weight these three reasons equally.