Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

Variance - yada yada yada - bitch - yada yada yada - 12 buyins ! yada yada yada

On average I end a session of 1500 hands up 2-3 buyins. Recently, I ran bad (tilted, sucked etc.) and dropped 12 buyins. After much panic self doubt and tears I pulled myself back to my previous level despite a 6 buyin downswing en-route. Slowly, my game returned to normal (I get tight scared after running bad) and my winrate returned too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Then today happened to me. In the space of 30 minutes and less than 100 hands I lost 10 buyins. I made no tiltesque plays, chased no long shot draws, and had no recourse to prayer. I was dealt 8 sets in this period along with a flopped Ace high str8 and a flopped Ace high flush and still I lost the most significant chunk of change I have ever lost in so short a time. This would normally be as many great hands as I see in a night. Only 2 of these hands got the money and both would have got the money if they'd been J high (no calls past the flop).

I was allin preflop once, KK v AA I had AA, I lost.
I had top set 9's and 8's, both allin on the flop, lost first to ab under set that made a one card flush, the other lost to an overpair that turned a set.
I had two set over set encounters both again escalated to all in on the flop, and lost a third set to a call down and river push from 2 pair that caught a rivered over to my under boat.
I flopped the nut str8 holding AQ on KJT rainbow and lost when the King paired making TT a boat.
The final straw and possibly the last hand of cards I'll ever play (until tomorrow) - AKs flopped the spade flush , lost to 56o (the 6 of spades) who hit the str8 flush 6789T.


My question following my rant, is there ever an upside to variance? When do I win 10 buyins in 100 hands? When do I even just get through a month (day?) without this kind of [censored] happening? Am I turning into the redpill?

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

[ QUOTE ]

My question following my rant, is there ever an upside to variance? When do I win 10 buyins in 100 hands? When do I even just get through a month (day?) without this kind of [censored] happening? Am I turning into the redpill?

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, I'm going through a similar situation, and I have the same thoughts in my head ;o

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

The upside is there. When I moved up to NL $200, I went up 13 buy-ins in my first 2k hands. I gave about 8 back and have been flat for my last 10k hands. Variance comes in all shapes and sizes. If it is affecting your game try not playing until you can get yourself refocused or play $10 PLO8 as a diversion.

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

Learn to live with it. If you can't, poker is not the game for you.

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the space of 30 minutes and less than 100 hands I lost 10 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why did you keep re-buying, or were you already up more than 10 buyins?

Generally, I don't subscribe to the stop loss or stop win philosophy, but I will quit when my stack is gone. Yes, I know that mathematically your next hand is your next hand, whether you play it here and now, or in two weeks at a different table.

You've got to play through the downs to get to the ups, but that all assumes that you are playing your best game all the way through. Once you start getting your brains beat in on the order you described, I don't know too many people who are playing their best game. Get some distance. Take a break at least.

Also, it sounds like you are taking your downswings kind of hard. This is part of the game. If you can't deal with it, maybe different level? different hobby?

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

Everyone's being very dismissive of OP, but what just happened to him is huge. I lost 7 buyins in a day once and I was crushed...

To OP. I'd move down a level... not because you can't beat the level you're at, but psychological reasons. You need to get confidence back after that bad a beat.

It took me 10k hands to feel confident enough to raise with SC and steal pots and cont bet regularly after my 7 buyin drop in a day.

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the space of 30 minutes and less than 100 hands I lost 10 buyins. I made no tiltesque plays, chased no long shot draws, and had no recourse to prayer.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's all swings and roundabouts for me now as well...

tho in my case some of my recent bad run this week has been down to donkish play and not just down to the inevitable bad beats that everyone gets landed with.

For me if I'm badly beaten but have played the hand well then I think s'okie - it's just the cards - and I can shrug it off without a worry - when I make bad plays and wipe out my stack I get sooooo frustrated with myself.

Everytime I lose my buyin - I get up walk away from pooter for at least 5 minutes - then come back and continue - usually at the same table (if I made a donk play and lost then this can be used for good advertising.. (?) )

after losing 7 buyins in the past 2 days I'm not playing my best game. as my PP account is down considerably I have moved down to $25NL.

Last time I played at this level I got killed. So I was wary about moving back down - this time around I'm doing much better - I've decided to stay at this level and work on my game until I crush these tables before moving back up, hopefully on my way back up I'll luck out and have a good upswing ...

It's reassuring to see posts from 2+2 ers who I regard as much better players than me who are also having bad swings.

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

Im with you man, these [censored] swings are [censored]!!

I am on what I thought was the tail end of a two week downswing when this hand happend about ten minutes ago....

Both villains are bad.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($735)
UTG ($763.92)
MP ($601)
Hero ($524)
Button ($141.05)
SB ($390)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $20, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $16.

Flop: ($66) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $90</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $300</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $210.

Turn: ($666) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero calls $204 (All-In), MP calls $204.

River: ($1074) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $1074

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Qc Qd (full house, queens full of fives).
Hero has 5c Ac (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: MP wins $1074. </font>

[censored]!

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

I've never been through anything like that, although I've had my share of downswings. Sucks pretty hard, I wouldn't play poker for a while after it.

There definitely is an upside to variance as well. You've probably seen it too, but we who consider our self good players tend to credit our good play when we win, not positive variance.

Re: Oh jesus! Dear God not again! - LC
 

U do get the up swings... I always get them huge runs about 2 weeks before I go to Vegas... then I get the massive down swing about 2 days before... just enought to blow my confidence out...

We all take beats... but the problem is when we do, we play worse.. not aggressive enough, and not smart enough... to lay down big hands... or just slow down with them...

I like the $10 PL omaha idea... it is true gambling...

The other part to a down swing, especially on small sites or the same table is your table image is crap... so you are more likely to get sucked out on, people will gamble with those running bad, maybe they think your steaming or a betting draws... trying to catch back up...

I put a 3 buy-in max on my sessions, after that if I still want to play, I play 0.01-0.02 nl, or cheap heads up, or Omaha HL cheap stakes or something else... just take a break... don't keep forcing the issue, somedays it is just destiny to loose

If your going to steam... come steam with me...