stupid 1010 hand
 

unknown button opens, sb (38/8/1.2/400) 3bets i call from the bb with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] button just calls.

flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb bets, i raise, button folds, sb 3bets i call.

turn is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bet call

river is offsuit 5.

bet call.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

i'd cap preflop. postflop is fine, i don't think there's any issue with not folding an overpair on the river for one more bet.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

I play it the same and pray for AK, A9, or some really overplayed other hand. He is quite agro for his low PRF. I think this may lead support to him falling in love with a preflop hand, and taking it to the extreme.

I could also see raising the turn, but given that we have the flush draw, I am not sure, because getting 3-bet would kinda suck. If we didn't pick up the flush draw, I am definetly raising the turn for a free showdown.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

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Also, he's clearly not afraid of the flush draw being completed on the turn.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength

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he's 3-betting a button open raise. i don't think that shows much strength at all. yeah i see his pfr of 8 over 400 hands, but, he's 3-betting a button open raise.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

His PF raise is 8 and he 3-bet a button steal raise. You're giving waaay too much credit. Folding river would be awful.

Vic - I say cap PF. Rest is well played.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

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i want more people to say this.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

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i want more people to say this.

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We need to be good about 10% of the time.

Hand that beat us:
JJ - 6
QQ - 6
KK - 6
AA - 6
99 - 3
88 - 3

30 combos. That means there need to be at least 3 combos of hands we beat.

AK - 16
A9 - 12

There are 28 combos. That means that if he overplays these hands 10% of the time, we should call.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

I agree with the point of PF cap, heres a hand i definately want heads up especially being out of position.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

To me it feels like not capping preflop is a pretty significant error.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

I'm fine with not capping pre-flop. Sometimes I cap and sometimes I don't. Certain players wil fold for two more pre-flop on a Button steal, and certain players won't. I'd make my decision on whether to cap or not based on (1) perceived opening range, (2) likelihood of Button folding for two more, and, as important if not more so, (3) how I think my cap would influence the flop play -- i.e., if I knew SB would always lead after getting called (and Button didn't cap most everything he steals with when 3-bet), then I'd rather SB have the flop lead. If there was a decent chance that Button would fold to the cap, I'd fire away.

I play it the same post-flop. I think I could make an argument for folding the river when it blanks - looking at this hand alone - but I think it's worth the BB to see a showdown (and almost surely lose) then play the hand as you did and fold the river. This sounds a bit goofy as I write it, so I'll think about it a little more.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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To me it feels like not capping preflop is a pretty significant error.

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this guy has 8% pfr. thats like super small. and this is a 3bet. that means a lot. it means he has monster.

now my hand is pretty good but its proly not the best and lots of flops are super bad. so are lots of turns and rivers. i really want to get the button out if i can. best way is to smooth call pf and raise favorable flops.

now i protect my hand and i can get away from bad flops.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

perfect imho, but i am awful.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

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Me too. Who is the 3rd - krish? I always wonder if *this time* the BB is a 2+2er who looked into my soul and saw that Surf knows how to fold to a cap after raising and has thus made a mega-iso raise with 22 or something. Then i fold and go back to my other tables and kind of forget about it because i'm on a new SN.

Surf

Edit: FWIW i probably fold the turn if I don't pick up a FD vs this particular player. those who are saying things like raise should really look at what a 30/8/1.2 plays this way and how many worse hands he could hold.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

Vic, imo this is not even close to being a river fold. Yea his pfr is 8. But this is a blind steal situation. Additionally, have you ever heard of tilt or alcohol induced aggression? lol, these things are all possible. I think you will see a hand like 77, A9, K9, j9, q9 here enough to make this call. Seriously I can think of so many times I've been in almost this exact same spot and have called the river "knowing" I'm beat, only to be showed some random hand.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

I like pre-flop. Can't find a river fold. Had the turn been some non-heart I could have looked for a fold there.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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Did you read my post? If so, can you respond to it? If not, can you read it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Spicymoose

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

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3 combos of A9s. If he plays like this 100% of the time with that hand, then you can just barely call. If you refuse to believe he will play AK or A9o this way as little as 5%, then yes, a river fold is good.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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yes, a river fold is good

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sweet, im glad we agree.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

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Me too. Who is the 3rd - krish?

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Ayup.

Krishan

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

preflop is fine. Postflop is fine. he'll show you a small pp often enough to call the river.

Krishan

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

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He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Now it's true that we can't say that with absolute certainty. But given enough hands with player types like this we can begin to estimate how many combos of a9 an opponent could have. I'd say less than 1.

Krishan

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

i cant fold this on the river. there are too many hands he could have. i understand why youd want to fold but im just not liking it. hes not going to put you on TT+ since you didnt cap preflop so he will often have a 9. even if you didnt pick up the flush draw on the turn im taking this hand to the showdown.

another reason why you cap preflop is that when players play back at you after youve coldcapped its because youre beat and can fold. here you cant.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

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i stoved it.

button has 35% of hands.....21.5
sb has 99, ajs, kqs, ajo....43
i have 1010.................35.5

i will willingly give up a few % of equity to protect my hand and get away for cheap when im clearly behind.

the equity is misleading bc it counts when flops come ak4 and i river a 10. clearly i wont stick around for that so that equity is not realized.

edit to add that my opponent is always sticking around to the river for overs. by capping now the button will only be facing one bet on the flop as well and will call with overs. so, even when ahead preflop, i will be dodging 6-12 outs on the turn and 6 more on the river.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

The only info we have is 8 pfr over only 400 hands. We have no idea (other than what the stats say) how he reacts to blind steal situations; what he might think of button; what he might think of us; what has been happening at the table; if he's down / up feeling lucky / feeling run over; what he's doing while playing; what mood he's in, etc., etc.

I make folds on the river here like these. I think most of the time they are good folds; I'm sure some of the time I'm wrong, but I think I'm making good decisions long-term on fold or call. I'm not saying that the stats are meaningless or we must always call here (because I do not think that is close to true). However, based on the info given in the OP and then in subsequent posts, I don't think this should be folded. When I do make a fold like this, I don't post it because, while I may believe it was the best play and mayh continue to so believe upon a post-session review, I'm either unable to convey that info adequately in a post for someone who was not there, or I am able to convey it and it either is "good fold" or "I wouldn't fold" -- i.e., nothgin good really comes from posting it. Victor may have had enough extraneous info to make this a good fold; but absent that info (which may require presence at the table to truly appreciate it) I don't think I could argue as an outside observer that this should be a fold by any noteworthy margin (and I think there are decent reasons to make a close call if, as I suspect, he's playing in a game where he will likely play against this specific opp with some frequency).

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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i'd cap preflop. postflop is fine, i don't think there's any issue with not folding an overpair on the river for one more bet.

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Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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this guy has 8% pfr. thats like super small. and this is a 3bet. that means a lot. it means he has monster.

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so you would have folded to the flop 3 bet then without the BD draw?

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

no. im never folding to the flop 3bet on similar boards.

my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

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He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

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God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

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If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

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so he will only 3 bet a total monster PF, but he will 3 bet the flop OOP with less than the goods? I dont think those 2 statements work well together.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

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If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

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I agree with bryce on this one...unless he's an actively-thinking TAG (not multitabling drone) players will often just keep betting on the river with whatever they bet on the turn in situations like this... *sometimes* they reveal their hand with a true action on the river, but not often enough to change the decision IMO.

Surf

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

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If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

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I agree with bryce on this one...unless he's an actively-thinking TAG (not multitabling drone) players will often just keep betting on the river with whatever they bet on the turn in situations like this... *sometimes* they reveal their hand with a true action on the river, but not often enough to change the decision IMO.

Surf

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I agree as well

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

the flop 3bet OOP is such a huge indicator to me. I'm still pushing for a river fold.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

ok. if i was a good player i would fold the turn absent a flush draw.