How low would you go...
 

... in your calling standards when you are in a situation similiar to this one.

Big live MTT. 3 players left. Blinds at 80k/160k, antes at 15k. Prize structure is like 1M, 500k, 250k.

Button has ~T150k.
SB has ~T5M.
You have about T1M in the BB.

Button folds. SB pushes. He's capable of doing this with any hand that has some value if called, so remove 73o from his range, but include Kx and 78s etc. What's the lowest hand you'd call with, if any?

Re: How low would you go...
 

Pairs, QJ+ KT+ A2+.


EDIT: Just saw the button. Make that 99+ AJs+

Re: How low would you go...
 

AA. Maybe KK. That's about it.

Re: How low would you go...
 

When you say he's capable of doing this with a wide range do you mean under regular circumstances, or even given the current situation with the shorty button?

If it's the former, I think you still have to give him so credit in this particular case.

Re: How low would you go...
 

Well for what its worth, if im the SB and I know the BB is a thinking player, I'm pretty sure its cEV+ to push any 2 here... and I'd say that equals EV+

Re: How low would you go...
 

When reading this situation I like to remember the post Sirio made on his log some time ago about folding AA preflop.

Button is going to be BB next hand and is auto-allin with any two cards. Given this information I would fold any two cards, even AA. Since a suckout is lurking around every corner.

Re: How low would you go...
 

Hmm... time for a little math.

Against a random hand, or even slightly better than random hand, you're about 85% to double up with AA.

15% of the time, you take 3rd and get $250k.
85% of the time, you lock up 2nd and take 1st ~40% of the time. ($500k * .60 + $1M * .4) = $700k.

EV = $250k * .15 + $700k * .85 = $632.5k

If you fold AA, let's assume SB drops. You take 2nd 85% of the time and 1st about 15% of the time.

EV = $500k * .85 + $1M * .15 = $575k

Call with the AA.

Re: How low would you go...
 

no no, this is different han the sirio hand.

he had everything to lose, and nothing to gain, becacuse it was a satelite 12th paid as much as 1st, so theres no reason to go from say 10th chip stack to the leading chip stack when theres 13 left.

In this situation though where 1st is substantially more than 2nd, it helps us a lot to double up here. Still we're not going to want to get knocked out right now a big % of the time. So i'll be conservative still, and say he's only pushing the top 50% of hands. ANd i'll arbitrarily decide that i want to still be around 70% of the time, so that would be JJ+ .. and that's it.

if he's pushing more than 50%, or if you dont need quite 70% equity for it to be good, then add in 99+ AJs+ AQo+

Re: How low would you go...
 

If he has any skill at all to situations like this and knows about the pressure he's gonna move with almost any hand in my opinion since he knows the button will be AI. He is guarenteed 2nd place no matter what happens. I'd make his range really loose and would play it as if I wanted to win the tournament. A8+,88+. I think common hands for him to push are suited connectors, any ace, any pair, and if he knows this kinda situation basically any two. With that calling range my ace will be dominating him over half the time if he has an ace any my pairs will be overpairs to him over half the time or a 55/45 favorite most of the time. Hands like KQ and KJ are probably appropriate against a large range, however, I don't want to get my money in as a dog to any ace.

Re: How low would you go...
 

I like your first range here, probably even better than my own because I still have the fear of busting out. If you want to win the tournament, I like Ansky's original calling range.