Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

PFR'r is really tight.

Flop bettor is unknown.

MP is terrible playing like 80% of hands.



Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero ?

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I think I just continue to call here. SB raising pre-flop but just c/c'ing the flop makes me think he may be behind with a big pair, and I don't want to give him a reason to fold.

As well, our hand relative to the BB is very questionable and I don't want to start putting in lots of big bets. It would suck to get 3-bet here since we likely have a lot of outs to split this pot vs something like AT, and don't necessarily want to fold yet.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I think I would raise being the button.

1. You are behind because this guy is not betting a draw in most cases with the ace. He is betting the ace.

2. A raise will get you off cheap if he has a good pair. He will probably reraise you here and you can call for one more and 2 pair or fold. I probably would fold unless pot odds counted for my 3 outer.

3. If he does just call and checks you can bet the turn and get a free showdown. Thats cheaper than call call call. If the BB has any skill he might think you are on the flush draw trying to get a free card. Thats why I would think he reraises. Also he will reraise with 2 pair making it safe for you to toss your ace crap away.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

Looks like a call. I'm not sure what hands we'd want to raise against. Neither would fold an A or call with anything less*. Folding seems silly as we have a very good shot at splitting this pot now. That leaves calling, which looks good to me.

* OK, a flush draw would call, but that seems unlikely with the turn bet and a raise would knock out a big pair from SB, netting us the same 2 bets in the pot, but making it more expensive for us to get them.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I think call, intending to call a river bet unless SB suddenly wakes up. SB has a big pair and almost certainly no A, so no need to raise and force him out. Bettor could have a wide range given our limited knowledge of him, but I'd guess he has an A most of the time. We're splitting with A8 and worse, and have counterfeitting outs against better aces, but we can't beat any other ace, even if we hit a 3 on the river.

We're getting 4.5:1 to see showdown (assuming SB just folds the turn without an A, a likely act). Since we're splitting at best, we're spending 2 bets to win 3.5 bets in profit, so we need to be splitting 1/3 of the time?

His range is probably any A at this point, so that gives us 5 full combos we split with, 4 we lose to now but sometimes split with (AK-AT, and he raises many preflop I assume), then lesser combos of A9/A4/A3 which we lose to or split with the A3. Maybe subtract a bit for when SB is being tricky with a big hand, but we definetly should have enough equity to call down.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I think raising would suck given that SB likely has KK-TT. I would call with the intention of counterfieting all kickers on the river.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I fold the turn. If BB has an ace, you have zero outs to win and the best you can do it chop. To call down, you are getting 4.5:1 pot odds. Like I said, if he has an ace it is really about 2.25:1. Since he led the flop into the big field, I think he has at least an ace. Fold.

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

I agree with just calling the turn, but what about raising the flop? I'd feel confident folding the turn unimproved if the SB plays for two cold (would he play KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] like this?) or the BB re-raises, so I'm not too worried about spewing. But more importantly, the two hands that affect our equity the most are a bigger ace and the flush draw. Raising now potentially saves us .5 BB against a better ace and charges the flushdraw, whereas calling down or raising the turn is essentially playing to just one of those hands.

Scott

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with just calling the turn, but what about raising the flop? I'd feel confident folding the turn unimproved if the SB plays for two cold (would he play KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] like this?) or the BB re-raises, so I'm not too worried about spewing. But more importantly, the two hands that affect our equity the most are a bigger ace and the flush draw. Raising now potentially saves us .5 BB against a better ace and charges the flushdraw, whereas calling down or raising the turn is essentially playing to just one of those hands.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I dislike. This is WA/WB/tied, even multiway. The guy in the middle already called so no forcing him out anyway, and the one guy who hasn't is either being soooper-sneaky with a monster or much more likely has a hand that is drawing to 2 or fewer outs, so we'd love for him to peel. Pot is big enough that I'm taking my hand to the next street and probably to showdown, either from my chances of being good/splitting or from spiking a 3. I guess you could think about folding the flop b/c your A beats only A2, but Ed Miller once said not to fold Top pair no kicker in a large pot for just one bet. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Turn - What thinkest thou?
 

To all those in the call camp, is it really worth risking 2 BBs to win 4 BBs with a hand this marginal?