QQ Turn Play
 

This decision might be kinda trivial/dumb but it's been itching me today. I've been trying to incorporate turn checks here more often (although I might be implementing them incorrectly) but I was wondering whether you thought this was an okay spot to do it.

The only two problems I saw with it was that the guy was relatively loose but not very aggressive (55/3/.9, 60 hands), so I'm wondering if checking here is missing too much value from random pocket pairs, nines, king high, flush draws, etc., and at the same time not always collecting a river bluff/desperation bet.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

With a VP$IP that high, villain could actually be fairly aggressive. IMHO, you'll get more value from a PP, 9x, or xy[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] than you will from inducing a river bluff.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

Im bet/calling this and seeing a SD

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

The looser he is the more likely you should be to bet. The more agressive he is the more likely you should be to check. This guy is loose and we don't really know how aggressive. There's a flush draw out there which should make you more likely to bet. I would fold to a raise here.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

I think you have to bet this, and you can probably fold to a checkraise.

C-Dog

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

I bet this and fold to a c/r. They almost always have an Ace.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
The looser he is the more likely you should be to bet. The more agressive he is the more likely you should be to check. This guy is loose and we don't really know how aggressive. There's a flush draw out there which should make you more likely to bet. I would fold to a raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Essentially my thoughts. This is what I ended up doing. Would you check here against a tightish-aggro player as well, something like a 23/13/2?

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The looser he is the more likely you should be to bet. The more agressive he is the more likely you should be to check. This guy is loose and we don't really know how aggressive. There's a flush draw out there which should make you more likely to bet. I would fold to a raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Essentially my thoughts. This is what I ended up doing. Would you check here against a tightish-aggro player as well, something like a 23/13/2?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's so close that it doesn't make much difference between bet/fold and check and call the river. If he's the creative type, it's a clear check. If he's almost incapable of a bluff CR, bet. If you don't know, mix it up.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

IMO, this is a bet and it's not close.

He's far more likely to have a 9, pp, fd, or maybe bdfd with broadways than he is to have an A. He will call a turn bet with almost all of the former hands. Him possibly being tricky enough to c/r as a bluff or semibluff should not deter you from betting, but rather from folding to the c/r. Use your better judgement and specific postflop reads, table image as to whether or not to call down a c/r, but with a player this loose you need to bet.

Your analysis is also somewhat contradictory. If you are worried that he may bluff c/r this turn too often for you to bet, you cannot also expect him to bluff at the river often when you check. You will only induce him to value bet his pps and 9s (which he would call with anyways), meaning you collect 1 less bet.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

I bet the turn. You will get called by PPs, 9s, FDs plus anyother garbage they call down with.

Im folding to a C/R. I see trips here way too often.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im bet/calling this and seeing a SD

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. I can't see how we would fold to a C/R here unless opp. was extremely passive.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

I think that if we can't fold to the c/r, I'd rather check here. The pot is fairly small, so giving our villain a free card is not going to be a huge mistake. It's possible he has a flush draw, but other than that, only K9 has more than 3 outs against us.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

If we bet and get check/raised, the pot will be 7 BB with a decision to us. Including a river bet, we will be getting 4:1 (8:2) to call down, and I think that we're ahead way more than 25% of the time. I see passive players go nuts on paired boards all the time, both online and live.

In fact, I was about to make the same type of laydown at a live 5/10 game against a guy who never raised unless he had 2-pair or better, and he raised me on the turn with a 6 on a 644 board. The boards aren't similar, but that was just an example of passive players going nuts on a paired board.

I think we're ahead here, and that villain will call way too often to miss a turn bet here.

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

I know some people are advocating a bet/fold to re-raise approach, but I am not sure that is a good strategy. If I were going to bluff at this pot it would be by check-raising the turn to represent an ace. With only 60 hands and such a high perecentage of hands being played it is hard to get a sense of their aggression in situations when the board pairs like this. In fact, if I knew you were a typicaly TAG in the game I would strongly consider check-raising you on the turn with nothing, and folding to a three bet.

I would bet, specifically because it is a drawing board, and hope that the guy who has been playing a lot of hands doesn't have the Ace. But I think you are committed once the bet goes in the pot to call down in this situation.

-k_squared

Re: QQ Turn Play
 

bet/call and call a river bet. i think checking here is a HUGE mistake.