AKo value bet
 

Posting this here because Jason won't answer me.

Villain here is 45/22/1.8, WTSD% only 33 though (just 300 hands).

Seems like a good bet here against someone with a higher WTSD but does he have (and call with) KQ, AT, AJ - or does he fold AK? - often enough to bet here?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

Re: AKo value bet
 

"WTSD% only 33 though"

that's high?


i don't like that river bet. I know i'm guilty of this thought process a lot, but you can't hope he's going to call KQ and fold AK at the same time.

Re: AKo value bet
 

I'm not hoping for these at the same time, but if he's not folding AK here I doubt he's folding other ace highs and maybe king highs. The thing that worried me is that my preflop cap may have scared him into calldown mode with 88-TT.

I wasn't saying his WTSD was high, I was saying it's fairly low compared to most players in the game. Then again I only have a few hundred hands so it might not have converged yet.

Re: AKo value bet
 

i fire like this with AK, 1.8 aggro seems like they'd raise bets with a decent hand. And after all, if you lose the hand, villain made a FTOP error, and if you checked as you're OOP, villain would bet you out.

So who can really complain?

Re: AKo value bet
 

This is a tough spot for a bet, IMO, since I think you've got a pretty small chance to fold a better preflop-3bet hand (maybe another AK, though), and with that WTSD%, he's apparently not calling down in hopeless situations.

Re: AKo value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not hoping for these at the same time

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread your post and it makes more sense to me now, I misunderstood at first.

i hate these hands.

Re: AKo value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
i fire like this with AK, 1.8 aggro seems like they'd raise bets with a decent hand. And after all, if you lose the hand, villain made a FTOP error, and if you checked as you're OOP, villain would bet you out.

So who can really complain?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd only expect to have heard from an overpair, TP, or set until now, given Hero's pf cap. Villain will likely bet out if we check, but is he going to be betting more hands we beat, as opposed to calling with them? I think so, so I would check, but if you think he'd be more likely to call with hands we beat than bet, betting is the right choice. This assumes you have little folding equity vs. a better hand, which I think is true, which means either line we take, we're losing at least a bet to a pair (unless we check/fold, but I wouldn't do that either).