What\'s your river action?
 

10/20 Foxwoods - loose passive, perfect game.

UTG limps, OK player limps, I limp w/Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (no I didn't raise), CO limps, Button limps, SB (tricky) completes, BB checks.

Flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

All check to me and I bet, CO folds, Button calls, tricky calls, BB folds, UTG folds, OK player calls.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

All check to me and I check, button checks.

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Now the SB (tricky) bets, the OK player calls...



Comments appreciated, results tomorrow.

Peace,
Joe Tall

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

Hmmm, I was going to say Call Joe, but now I don't know.

Unless Tricky flopped two pair AJ/J9, and checked it twice then he'd have to have rivered his Kojack.
As such I think a plain Jack, or maybe even just an Ace or King, is more likely.

You have a much stronger hand than he will give you credit for after checking the Turn (especially as the draw expected will be the hearts). So I think he bets for value "knowing he's not going to get raised".

I think I'd probably raise.
I'm not totally sure though.

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

At first this seems like an obvious raise, and that was my response to the poll, but the more I think about this situation the more complicated it gets. The turn/river action looks an awful lot like sb may have missed a cr attempt, but even if thats the case it doesn't automatically mean he has a full house. In fact, since he didn't bet or checkraise the flop you can probably discount aj, j9, or a flopped set (I'm making the possibly invalid assumption that he wouldn't slowplay two pair or a set on a flop with so many possible draws). KJ is a possible hand but so is any other jack if the failed checkraise read is correct. Alternatively, is it possible that his bet is a desperation bluff after missing his heart draw? Also, what the heck is OK player calling with here. One very strong possibility it seems to me is that he also holds the Q 10, though some random pair is probably more likely. If all he has is a pair, how likely is he to pay off the raise? Same question applies to the sb, is he automatically paying off your raise? If he's on some moronic bluff then no, with trips yes, but on pairs it could be questionable. With a full house he is almost garaunteed to reraise and you'll be forced to pay off. All told, estimating the EV of this raise seems to be very complicated and in any case I think its probably close. My gut says go with the raise though. Sorry for the longwinded response, and if anybody thinks that what I've said is way off please let me know. I've only been playing about 6 months and have never played higher than 3/6 so I'm sure theres a lot I'm not taking into account.

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

Call. Tricky player could have AJ for a boat.

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

Put it this way...the two people who voted for call should be shot.

-- Homer

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but why isn't it at least a little close?

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

Put it this way...the two people who voted for call should be shot.

You have a point. Tricky player would check raise if he held the nuts.

I change my answer to raise.

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

He'd checkraise even though the previous street had been checked through? Is tricky code for terrible?

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

It was checked through on the turn and your straight is pretty well hidden. You say he is tricky...dont you think he will try to take this down with less than a boat ?

Re: What\'s your river action?
 

You guys are way overthinking this. Calling here is mucho weak-tight, especially with the presence of another caller. Fearing the nuts after the lack of action on previous streets isn't called for yet. Raise the freaking river. Sure, sometimes you'll get 3-bet and be shown a failed c/r attempt on the turn, but more often than that, you'll be shown 2 inferior hands. Over-calling here is horrible.

GoT