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-   -   SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=397265)

betgo 12-13-2005 12:17 AM

SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
From deep stack.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP3 (t16100)
CO (t51012)
Button (t7415)
SB (t11520)
Hero (t35792)
UTG (t42109)
UTG+1 (t77086)
MP1 (t41728)
MP2 (t29855)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t11470</font>, Hero ???

suckbot 12-13-2005 12:34 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
How willing are you to gamble for 1/3 your stack? I'd guess he either got an over on you or maybe a small PP. Either way you're at best a coin flip and probably need to hit.

I'd let it go.

12-13-2005 12:36 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
He pushed for 20x BB and you have QJs.

yvesaint 12-13-2005 12:41 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
He pushed for 20x BB and you have QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

12-13-2005 12:58 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
uh... how is that even a question? You would have to construct an absolutely ridiculous range for this to be a good call.

betgo 12-13-2005 01:01 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
He pushed for 20x BB and you have QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, QJs is about 47% against Ax or Kx and about even against 22-TT. It is very unlikely villain has JJ-AA. So all you are worried about is AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, and KJ. You are about a 3-2 dog against AK and 2-1 against the others.

Plus villain probably would make a smaller raise with hands that strong. You are probably close to even against a pp, Ax, or Kx. You are putting in 47% with pot odds, so the call is pretty close in chip EV.

bugstud 12-13-2005 01:03 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
uh... how is that even a question? You would have to construct an absolutely ridiculous range for this to be a good call.

[/ QUOTE ]

beecause imo he's not likely to do this with AA-JJ, and those are a huge part of the -ev of the range.

12-13-2005 01:06 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
umm... what IS he likely to do this with? Nothing. In my experience, overbet pushes are usually AK or a small pocket pair that is too scared to play postflop. That's not to say his range isn't pretty wide, but I think you have to weight those hands more than others. I also don't think you can discount JJ+, as I have seen people overbet with everyone one of those hands as well. I don't think this is anywhere near close.

12-13-2005 01:12 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
Not worth it. Next hand.

betgo 12-13-2005 01:13 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
umm... what IS he likely to do this with? Nothing. In my experience, overbet pushes are usually AK or a small pocket pair that is too scared to play postflop. That's not to say his range isn't pretty wide, but I think you have to weight those hands more than others. I also don't think you can discount JJ+, as I have seen people overbet with everyone one of those hands as well. I don't think this is anywhere near close.

[/ QUOTE ]

An overbet push from mid to late position could be a fairly big hand. From the SB, it is a fairly standard play with an ace, small pp, broadway cards, suited connector etc. It is not that bad a play to push here, since you have folding equity, are up aginst one random hand, and are OOP postflop.

12-13-2005 01:13 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]

QJs is about 47% against Ax or Kx

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the equity that you need to call. Throw in the odds of KJ, KQ, AJ, occasionally AQ and AK, and this is a fold.

12-13-2005 01:13 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
sorry, but i've seen monsters do this just for the reason that they think it looks like they're stealing and no big hand could possible do this, and they know a normal raise is also likely to be folded. if BB has hand (like a pocket pair or AK or AQ),they call this and now he gets paid.

12-13-2005 01:25 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
Depends what your calling range is. If he knows that you'd consider calling with QJs it's probably a pretty bad play. It may be a pretty good play, but that doesn't mean it's standard. I rarely see this.

betgo 12-13-2005 02:28 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

12-13-2005 02:32 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

QJs is about 47% against Ax or Kx

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the equity that you need to call. Throw in the odds of KJ, KQ, AJ, occasionally AQ and AK, and this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, cEV doesn't equal EV, etc, so if the situation's close, you should opt to lower the variance in your chip stack because lower chip stack variance translate directly to EV in MTTs. If you call here, it's either about cEV neutral or -cEV and very high variance. So, it's -EV to call and you should fold.

AtlBrvs4Life 12-13-2005 04:24 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
Ok this is obviously a fold, but what range of hands does everyone call with?

bugstud 12-13-2005 04:26 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you raising less than your stack with premium hands?

betgo 12-13-2005 09:46 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you raising less than your stack with premium hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definately would only push with something like A8o, KQ, or a small pp. I wouldn't have pushed a much weaker unsuited ace. If I knew the villain would call with QJs annd similar hands, I would definately push with AK, TT etc.

The push is slightly EV+, whether villain is tight or loose. I don't know if it was a good play. I had a difficult hand to play OOP short stacked. I thought villain might make a mistake with the big bet in calling or folding when he shouldn't. He did, but notone that particularly benefited me.

In this case, if I had standard raised, I would have flopped TPTK and my opponent a flush draw and over cards, so all the money would have gone in on the flop or preflop anyway.

12-13-2005 10:58 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
IMHO, I have a couple of observations here:

1) There is no mention of antes, but BB is 600, so SB is 300, villain is therefore at M=12.8. He's not dead yet, but getting close to needing life support. When do the blinds move and what are the antes? If fairly soon, an all-in move is not neccessarily strength, particularly when he speaks first now, and may not do so again for several hands. If there were antes, and the blinds were moving soon, the all-in would be nearly mandatory with any two cards.

If we assume a $50 ante: M drops to 8.5. If we assume blinds move soon (and they do on Stars), M soon will drop to about 4.2. SB is out of the tournament, for all intents and purposes.... any decent hand is an all-in hand while his stack can still do damage to any player. He is out of options. Hero's choice is now a judgement call on whether SB recognizes these facts or not. SB may hold just about anything. Personnally, in the absence of a definite read, I wouldn't want to risk a third of my stack on it (that's why this tactic usually works)and I'd let him steal. In this case, the intended victim was the big stack who had less to lose than the mid-stacks. If anyone called, it would have been him.

2) Just about everyone who posted completely discounted the possibility that SB held a premium hand. That would therefore imply that a crazy high raise late in the tournament would be a well disguised, strategically sound move.

schwza 12-13-2005 11:42 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ok this is obviously a fold, but what range of hands does everyone call with?

[/ QUOTE ]

right around the range of hands that crushes A8: A9+, 66+, KQ

which is why i hate this push with a8. imo, raise &gt; call &gt; push &gt; fold

12-13-2005 11:43 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
you must be joking posting this hand?
are you honestly wondering if you should call or fold in this spot with QJ?

yvesaint 12-13-2005 11:52 AM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
you must be joking posting this hand?
are you honestly wondering if you should call or fold in this spot with QJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, its one of those 'i cant believe my opponent called this so lets switch villain/hero and everyone can berate his play' hands

12-13-2005 12:13 PM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you must be joking posting this hand?
are you honestly wondering if you should call or fold in this spot with QJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, its one of those 'i cant believe my opponent called this so lets switch villain/hero and everyone can berate his play' hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually.. he tried to defend his opponent here.

Temp Hutter 12-13-2005 12:15 PM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why you risked 11K to win 600. You say you like to overbet push from the SB. Has this been a profitable move for you? Would raising a standard amount be a more profitable play in the long run? For all the times you pick up the BB, how many times have you been caught stealing and lost? It is hard to imagine that this has been profitable with blinds this small and stacks that deep.

12-13-2005 12:16 PM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
imo, raise &gt; call &gt; push &gt; fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the big question here is raise vs. call. I like calling with this stack size because I'm just at the limit where I can afford to lose one blind if I whiff, and might be able to double up if I flop an A and villain doesn't believe I have it. It's hard to put numbers to this, though. Also, calling and getting raised is very awkward.

schwza 12-13-2005 12:21 PM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
imo, raise &gt; call &gt; push &gt; fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the big question here is raise vs. call. I like calling with this stack size because I'm just at the limit where I can afford to lose one blind if I whiff, and might be able to double up if I flop an A and villain doesn't believe I have it. It's hard to put numbers to this, though. Also, calling and getting raised is very awkward.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't hate a limp-reraise against an aggro player. one nice thing about A8 is that is that it does well against worse Ax and KJ-type hands. open-pushing shuts out those hands, but limp-reraising can get you all-in with them.

12-13-2005 12:25 PM

Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
imo, raise &gt; call &gt; push &gt; fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the big question here is raise vs. call. I like calling with this stack size because I'm just at the limit where I can afford to lose one blind if I whiff, and might be able to double up if I flop an A and villain doesn't believe I have it. It's hard to put numbers to this, though. Also, calling and getting raised is very awkward.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't hate a limp-reraise against an aggro player. one nice thing about A8 is that is that it does well against worse Ax and KJ-type hands. open-pushing shuts out those hands, but limp-reraising can get you all-in with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I'm officially in favor of limping &gt; raising &gt; pushing &gt; folding.


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