15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

Here's a hand I played tonight on Party. CO is one of my favorite Party maniacs. He plays 87% of his hands, raises preflop 34% of the time, but he only goes to showdown 55% of the time. That is, he's definitely capable of folding, but only on the turn or river.

Having said that, what's my line here on the river? Is this a value bet or should I induce a bluff?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (7.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

Check and Call...

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

I agree. He MAY be a maniac. Which also means he could be raising with anything from a small pocket pair to A3o. I don't think folding is an option but if I can see a showdown for free with this one, I think I would.

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

agree with meow here! [ QUOTE ]
Check and Call...

[/ QUOTE ]

He might be maniac preflop but as you said he would be able to fold on the river. So if you bet he would very likely be folding if not having A or K (or better) and if so he will raise and cost you two bets, ie so your bet will gain you very little.

Where as a check will induce a raise from him even when he is beat, so the cost here will be one bet or null if he checks where you still will be winning the pot...

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

I favor check and call on the river here. Given your description of him, I can't see him calling you with anything that you can beat, and you might get played-back at.

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

I think check-calling here is OK.

You probably have to read him as not having a pocket pair or something like 87s because with that raggedy of a flop, he'd probably have raised if he had a pair. So you're not going to be missing a value bet very often IMO.

He could have some broadway cards like QJ that didn't get there but since is capable of folding postflop he would have folded undercards to a king on the turn and it doesn't sound like he would call the river with something that junky anyway.

By the river, I'd say his most likely holding is Ax with something like 33 trailing behind.

Luke

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

Wow, nice seat against that opponent!

I would say that you're ahead most of the time here, but what is the history of your opponent making river bluffs?

Given that you said the maniac is capable of laying down on the turn or river, I would check and call a bet. He must have had something to call the turn, right?

I would hate to bet, get raised and be forced to make a crying call.

Garland

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

river: puke, and check. if he bets u puke and call. after he shows you K2o, puke some more.

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

A'ight, I made this nifty little river calculator yesterday in EXCEL, so let's see what it says.

Your opponent:
Calls with worse hand 55%
Folds with better hand 0%
Raises with better hand 90%
Raises with worse hand 25%
Bets with worse hand 50%
Bets with better hand 95%

Has the better hand 45%

EV: Check-call -0.15 BB
EV: Bet-call -0.28 BB
EV: Bet-fold -1.45 BB
EV: Check-fold -2.61 BB

Those percentages, of course, are guesstimates, and if they're wrong ... garbage in, garbage out. But it appears that check-call is slightly better than bet-call against the described opponent.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that if your opponent is *very* aggressive, and will frequently *raise* with a worse hand (it sounds like this guy chills out a lot of the time on the expensive streets, and doesn't really fit the description), then that swings the balance in favor of bet-call:

Your opponent:
Calls with worse hand 55%
Folds with better hand 0%
Raises with better hand 90%
Raises with worse hand 40%
Bets with worse hand 50%
Bets with better hand 95%

Has the better hand 45%

EV: Check-call -0.15 BB
EV: Bet-call -0.11 BB
EV: Bet-fold -2.24 BB
EV: Check-fold -2.61 BB

In other words, it is possible to induce a bluff by betting, as well as by checking.

Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
river: puke, and check. if he bets u puke and call. after he shows you K2o, puke some more.

[/ QUOTE ]
He would have raised the turn with K2o. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]