pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Background reading is this thread in the STT forum, with lively debate on pushing near the top of the orange zone.

So... there I was... and I pushed...
(Special bonus: Ka52_Hokum previously called an allin with A5os. But I would have pushed anyway had this not been the case.)

My question: kosher for MTT as well?

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: hero ( $2107 )
Seat 2: Ka52_Hokum ( $5624 )
Seat 9: congo2 ( $5609 )
Seat 4: jonthegreek3 ( $10265 )
Seat 6: Twenty5Cent ( $6621 )
Seat 3: azazel2177 ( $1125 )
Seat 5: chinxu ( $1722 )
Seat 8: themanAA420 ( $4982 )
Seat 1: TheMaster891 ( $3138 )
Seat 10: coimbra ( $2783 )
Trny:18627177 Level:6
Blinds (75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Jh Ah ]
jonthegreek3 folds.
chinxu folds.
Twenty5Cent folds.
kookymangas is all-In [2107].......

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

I would most definitely not be pushing there as you are only called with hands you are behind/dominated by.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Therefore you disagree with the logic behind a push in the STT scenario/thread as well?

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would most definitely not be pushing there as you are only called with hands you are behind/dominated by.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've come to believe this thinking is wrong as i've frequently had my AK-AJ pushes called by AT and worse, depending on their stack sizes, and he's got a fighting chance against most pocket pairs ...

if he raises to 3BB, he's pretty close to pot committed anyway and/or will definitely be all-in on his next hand. folding is clearly not a realistic option given the blinds.

i like the push.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

I don't see how you can compare the two. In the STT example, the hero has AQ on the button in a 5-handed game. Here the hero has AJ in MP in a 10-handed game. Very different scenarios. I'm not sure if I'd push in the STT either but it's a much closer decision.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Just did some math, pushing is +CEV
assuming you only get called when behind (22+, AQo+) by anyone behind you,

(1) everyone folds 63.3% * (2107 + 225) = 1476
(2) one caller 36.7%
(a) win 42% = "4214" (ignoring the blinds for now)
(b) lose 58% = 0
================
650

Total is 2126 > 2107 for folding. But remember, I haven't included the blinds in pot if hero gets called, so it's definitely +CEV relative to folding.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Throw in some bad calls, then hero is really making money.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

By the way, my boy called with 88 and I lost. Doesn't that suck?

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Well over on the SNGPT forum, we have this nifty little calcatour that can tell us weather to push or fold depending on our oppents calling range. It's not that easy in multis, due to many more factors that come into effect, including 50+ people getting paid out (very top heavily)instead of jsut 3.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Well, I'm sure it depends on the buy-in. In $100+ tournies I don't see many medium sized stacks calling with small Aces after a 12xBB push in MP. Sure, the big stacks might call and if there's a small stack in the blinds they might call. But on the whole they're going to fold A9 and below and usually AT. I could see in a small buy-in tourney getting called with worse Aces.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

You think a good player will call a 12xBB push w/22? I sure don't. Again, it gets back to the buy-in. But unless they have chips to spare or are desperate then I see them folding most of the small pairs - perhaps even up to 77s. And when you calcuate your equity against 88+, AQ+ it drops down to 35% although of course the chance of getting called decreases.

And it's not just a question of whether pushing is +EV. The question is whether or not pushing is the most +EV versus other alternatives. It may very well be but you need to consider all options and what you're opponents are likely to do if you just make a normal raise. What hands will they push with? What hands will they call with? You need to think about who is left to act after you and who is in the blinds. While in a STT there are lots of automatic decisions I think that's less the case in an MTT where there are many factors to consider.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

1 reraiser: call
reraiser followed by more re-reraisers: fold

if the one reraise was an insta-push, I might move my cursor over all the buttons and then pick fold.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Since the ~3BB raise encourages middle and lower pairs to push, I don't like it. I also think if someone flat calls it is going to be a high pocket pair, AQ, or AK and a big stack. Plus a failed continuation bet leaves hero with not much of a stack at all. I would rather fold this hand than make a standard raise.

Since the push is marginally +CEV with good players it serves as a nice dividing line for an orange zone push, IMO.

Personally I am not calling this allin without a premium hand: TT+, AK. Of course, if the callers have tighter ranges than 22+, AQ+ then it's even more +CEV to push, right??

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You think a good player will call a 12xBB push w/22? I sure don't. Again, it gets back to the buy-in. But unless they have chips to spare or are desperate then I see them folding most of the small pairs - perhaps even up to 77s. And when you calcuate your equity against 88+, AQ+ it drops down to 35% although of course the chance of getting called decreases.

[/ QUOTE ]

more often than not, this seems like an argument for a push vs. 3 BB raise. too lazy to do the math right now longhand (and don't have pokerstove at work) but, if one accepts that worse aces won't call a 3BB raise (especially at high buy-ins) but pairs < 88 will call a 3 BB raise but fold to a push, intuition would suggest that a push is +EV vs. a 3BB raise, ceteris paribus.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

At highly aggressive tables, would anyone consider limp/rr all-in, depending on the player who raises? I've never tried this, but I've heard lovely things about it...Obviously doomed to failure if limpers never get raised by the big stacks...

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since the ~3BB raise encourages middle and lower pairs to push, I don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]
For exactly the same reason I like it.

Very big difference between STTs and MTTs.

In STTs it's a sound strategy to sneak into the money - stack conservation issues are highly relevant.

I firmly believe in MTTs that doubling your stack at critical points - and one is very much about to come up, a point where you lose your FE because of stack shrinkage - gives you substantially bigger EV gain the you lose by busting out. There's just too little value in 'sneaking' in - and too much to win by making it deep in the money.

I'd be happy to see middle or lower pairs push here - I'd call in a heart beat, getting the right odds, and adding value to my stronger hands later on should I prevail.

Additionally, I expect to see worse Aces and even KQ type hands coming over the top - at least at the levels I play ($20 buy-in, $5 - $10 re-buys).

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

I went with the push... but that was after eliminating a couple of other factors that I would consider if it were actually me.

One of the main questions being, "How long left in this level?"
If it's early in the level, I think I might be more inclined to wait. The reason I say this is because we are in MP now, we're moving towards EP and the blinds (therefore having the 'risk' of bigger hands calling us in EP as well having our M chopped up by the blinds.) If the level ends before we get to the blinds then our M is significantly different... no longer High Orange. If we can get to the blinds in this level, then our life in the blinds is a little easier and our M is spared for another round.

In short I think it important to consider the lifespan of our current M. 10 has a heckuva lot more options than 5.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

You're missing a fundamental difference between SNGs and MTTs. The payout structure of an MTT is so top heavy that accumulating chips is much more important than survival. In a STT (with 5 players left, especially), survival becomes paramount. If you look in that thread, you will see that Curtains said he would most likely not push AQo in this situation in an MTT.

In an STT, cEV is often times very different than $EV. In early and middle stages of an MTT, cEV is usually very close to $EV.

Pushing might be the best play here, but a bubble SNG situation gives no support to your argument.

BTW, you don't think you can play AJs profitably from MP in this spot with a standard raise?

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Texas,

Haven't looked at the STT debate, but to me, this is really a table dynamics sort of thing.

Most of the time I'm tossing in a standard raise, but if the table was playing loose and I thought I could get the chips in against a dominated hand, or KQ and such then pushing isnt terrible.

As I look closer, I'd prefer to be a little closer to the button so it seems more like a steal.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
You just can't answer this type of question. And that's probably the key difference between STT and MTT. In an STT (and while I play mainly MTTs I've got at least a couple thousand STTs under my belt so I know something about them) play is much more systematic. Blinds escalate rapidly. Bubble play comes quickly. Unless you've played with someone previously you often don't have great reads.

With an MTT you just can't say something like "well if somebody pushes I'll call" or "I'll call one raise but fold to a raise and a re-raise". It all depends. Who is pushing? How have they been playing? How big is their stack? How have I been playing? Does it look like I'm stealing? When are the blinds increasing? What's the current money situation?

There are too many factors that need to be considered and you need to think through some of these prior to even deciding what to do.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are too many factors that need to be considered and you need to think through some of these prior to even deciding what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, i agree ... it all depends. it always depends.

but if we take that to its logical extreme, no one should have answered the poll at all or there should have been an option for "none of the above/it depends".

but if someone chose "~3BB raise" vs. "push", i would have assumed that they had already made their own assumptions about what they'd do if met with resistance in order for them to choose one vs. the other.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

I didn't even realize there was a poll. IMO polls are pretty silly on these types of topics. I guess I blanked it out because of my bias against them.

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

Good point and thanks for the reply. So that is one possible standard raise play: raise with the intention of calling an allin from an aggressive player, but not a tight one. What do you do if you get one caller? I think it's either push the flop or check and fold at that point, since continuation bets are not really orange zone material, are they?

Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)
 

i think it's probably a tossup as to which play is more profitable (push, limp, 3x, i don't think folding is an option) they'll all make you money. i'd think about limping, and if raised, maybe push on it. The more i type about that, the more i like it.