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-   -   Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403350)

ludo72 12-22-2005 09:56 AM

Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
SB is 40/14 and not very aggressive post-flop. He calls way too much and overplays a lot of hands, and in general is the type of player you can never be sure what he might have. He's not a super donkey but not very good either.

BB is 36/8 and loose-passive post-flop. Calls way too much and chases a lot. I'm pretty sure he has a flushdraw once he calls the turn.

Heros table image is tight but very aggressive as I've been making a lot of moves (such as flop 3-bet pure bluff, which I showed, and a lot of pre-flop 3-betting with crap) against a pretty good loose-aggressive player who just left the table.

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($1310.70)</font>
CO ($169.50)
Button ($474.40)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($343.98)</font>
<font color="#C00000">BB ($355)</font>
UTG ($416.46)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $15, SB (poster) calls $13, BB calls $11.

Flop: ($60) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $45</font>, Button folds, SB calls $45, BB calls $45.

Turn: ($195) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $90</font>, BB calls $90, Hero?

12-22-2005 10:08 AM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
looks like a push to me. given villain's image, and yours, it looks like you are usually ahead here. i agree, looks like BB is on a flush draw.

Denutz 12-22-2005 10:45 AM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
CavMan,

How do you justify a push? I think you need to think about their hand range and what they'll call a push with that kotkis is ahead of.

Even donks can hit trips or a better two pair once in a while - do you really think AQ or AT is calling a push here? The possible flush draw might make a mistake and call it, but I'm more concerned about SB's holdings. Either he just hit a better TTP, is trying to control the size of the pot or is leading into us hoping for a raise.

When considering which cards we don't want to see on the river, I think we would probably need to include any Q or T (8) and any club (7 - taking out the already accounted for Q &amp; T) - so 15 cards on the river might bust our hand, if it's not already beaten.

Both players have $150 in the pot, the pot is approaching $400 and each player has about $200 behind - now that I think about it, I guess a push is in order, considering that you're almost always calling the river unless a club hits. It's really the only play that will make the flush draws calling incorrect and you gotta hope that the other player (I don't like it) is on a weaker Ace or an Ace that just picked up an inside s8 draw. Agree?

12-22-2005 11:52 AM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
SB could have KJ as well. I prefer a push when you're most likely not only getting called by a better hand. But in this instance it might be the right play. It would depend if I think that the other player is capable of playing an AK or set like that. (could even be QT)

12-22-2005 12:22 PM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
Part of my justification for a push was based on the hero's image of the blinds. SB sounded like he could be betting a good number of hands we could beat. Also, his play so far doesn't really look to me like a set or a straight. He could have AK, KJ, or possibly just a pair of aces based on hero's read.

Also, I think we are way too strong here to fold, or fold on river (assuming river isn't club, Q, or T). Also, since we are pretty sure one guy is drawing, we can't count on improving, and a good number of scare cards really hurt our hand, I think pushing is better than calling.

In my first post and this one, I'm not saying I'm jumping to get my chips in the pot, and I'm not sure I want a call, but pushing seems like a better choice than folding or calling, especially given the reads from hero.

Denutz: I think you summed up what i'm saying pretty well in the last paragraph of your post

Leptyne 12-22-2005 01:52 PM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
[ QUOTE ]
SB is 40/14 and not very aggressive post-flop. He calls way too much and overplays a lot of hands, and in general is the type of player you can never be sure what he might have. He's not a super donkey but not very good either.



[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like this spot. So what kinds of hands will call your flop bet? AKo, Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for sure, KJo or QTo are possible since it looks like the K hits his hand. The weak lead only adds to the confusion. The way you've described SB leads me to thinking this is KJ. I don't think there is a call here, so it's either fold or push. In looking at their stack size it looks like the BB blind won't be able to get away if I push, and I want him in there. I'm probably going to stick it in and stack them both. Losing here won't cripple you and I think you'll get it back.

Folding is certainly an option to consider and I would be more inclined to look for a better spot if both these dudes weren't on my left. I lean toward the push.

Riverman 12-22-2005 01:52 PM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
pushes

Big_Jim 12-22-2005 04:20 PM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
Considering reads and stack sizes, this is a pretty clear push.

Reef 12-22-2005 05:16 PM

Re: Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL
 
put SB in

ludo72 12-22-2005 11:41 PM

Results
 
Hero pushes and both players call. SB has a set of deuces and BB has 8-high flushdraw. I river a Jack for the win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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