Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

A little history. Villian is nutpeddler. Somewhat wide pf range but always shows down winners.

One of our first tangles I called his UTG raise with pocket 4s. A4x two clubs fell and he stacked me with pocket aces. In the hand I led for 20, he raised me to 60 and I went all-in on the flop.

In a later hand, he exhibited the ability to laydown correctly when he folded JJ to my smooth-called AA on a ragged board (though there was a player already all-in to protect the pot). He folded that hand on the turn.

I think i messed this one up. Comments?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) converter

UTG ($201.75)
MP ($233.35)
CO ($492.10)
Button ($574.40)
SB ($154)
Hero ($473.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($26) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $60</font>, Hero calls $40.

Turn: ($146) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $80</font>, Hero calls $80.

River: ($306) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $200</font>...

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

I assume you believe your top pair is no good so what hand are you trying to represent here? The river did not complete any reasonable draw so your bet just looks like a flush draw that missed to me

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

are you trying to represent TJ?

I don't think he believes that you called down with inside straight draw.

and this river bet looks a bit suspicious like a missed flush.

I might be more inclined to do this if the flop wasn't 2 spades or if the river came a spade.

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

i like it. if stacks were a bit bigger i might even go for the c/r bluff on the river. i guess it depends on how many levels the villain would think on. your description of him is that he is pretty decent and might actually think about your possible holdings. it should be obvious to you that he has aces or kings. i think that the big bet on the river isnt bad, but i might have just pushed to increase your chances of him folding.

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

check raise bluffs only work if you know other guy won't checkbehind.

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

My plan, after calling the turn, was to bet 200-250 on any river.. should I have just bet on any scare card? (presumably A, T, spade and my hand - there was very little chance this player was semibluffing)

Was my turn call still +EV if I believe this play will work? I hadn't shown any "moves" and just complained to him about a bad downswing, so I doubt he would pin me on a play... but who knows given the results.

Re: Deceptive play or hopeless bluff?
 

I find it pretty unlikely for most villains to believe that you have 79 here. most villains don't even realize that 79 hit the turn.

I do like taking your line with a set though.

I think its hard for the forum to comment on this because folding equity is one of the hardest things to calculate.

Results
 

In the actual hand, I checked the river, thinking I could never sell a set (the hand I would need to be repping with the bet) to the villian. I had decided to bet 200 on any card once I called the turn bet, but wussed out when a blank came. Villian bet 150 and I folded.

He told me later he had pocket kings. He said that because I checked the river, he thought his value bet might work since if I had a better hand I would have bet there... maybe my bluff would have worked?

I guess I'll never know since I chickened out.. just one after-effect of the 2k downswing I took this weekend I guess.