Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

Detroit +3.5 -110 (Bowmans)
Atlanta -3 -104 (Pinny)

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

the chance of pushing on the 3 is about 10%.

since this is only a side and not a full middle, you are basically laying a combination of 14c to win back 100c on the detroit side if the falcons win by exactly 3.

to break even in the long run you cannot lay more than 10c out to win a side at a time, so this bet is -EV. cheap gamble though at least.

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

[ QUOTE ]
the chance of pushing on the 3 is about 10%.

since this is only a side and not a full middle, you are basically laying a combination of 14c to win back 100c on the detroit side if the falcons win by exactly 3.

to break even in the long run you cannot lay more than 10c out to win a side at a time, so this bet is -EV. cheap gamble though at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

$110 to win $100 Detroit +3.5
$107.10 to win $102.90 Atlanta -3

Finish on 3 10% - win $100
Finish off 3 90% - lose $7.10

Do the math, it's obviously +EV.

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

You're not laying a total of 14c, you're laying close to the AVERAGE of the two juice numbers (around 7c, as sygamel showed).

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because about 10% of games where one team is a 3 point favorite (or close) end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. I actually get a slightly higher percentage (10.56 for spreads -2.5 to -3.5).

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because about 10% of games where one team is a 3 point favorite (or close) end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. I actually get a slightly higher percentage (10.56 for spreads -2.5 to -3.5).

[/ QUOTE ]


Can you explain how exactly you come up with the 10.56? Is it based on all NFL games with a 3 point spread ever? Where can I find how often this has occured?

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

by the way, if you want to turn this into a scalp, Pinnacle will take -3.5 +114.

Add in DET is now +3.5 -105 at Sports Interaction and that's a pretty decent 9 cent scalp.

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

Okay, in my exercise in middling, did I do this right?

Detroit +3.5 -115 (Sportsbook) 11.23/9.77
Atlanta -3 +110 (Pinny) 10/11

Risking 23 cents to win $11. I placed the Atlanta bet earlier in the week, believing that the line would move towards them later in the week. I could only find Detroit +3.5, -120, but as it got closer to game time, Sportsbook was offering +3 +105, which I bought half a point to get to +3.5 -115.

Edit: I guess I'm really risking 23 cents to win 9.77 since the the spread can only hit 3 points, not 3.5 points.

Re: Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
 

that seems right. My question is, how did you get Atlanta -3 +110 only 10 minutes ago?