20/40 top set
 

20/40, we both have about 12k. I've been playing kind of fast. No one has really been challenging me. The table just witnessed someone go on mega tilt and drop like 15k in about 5 minutes. He has left. Both mine and villain's stacks are the prime benefactors. Villain is tight, and snapped off a squeeze play of mine earlier for a stack. I suppose it was a good investment as I see that he will stack off with TPTK, though he could have just read me as squeezing, it was one of the first hands I played so he couldn't have possibly read me that well, maybe he was just looking me up. Whatever, fast forward, I'm playing fast, giving lots of action but showing down winners, he has been quiet.

I raise QQ UTG to 160 after a post in the CO, I get 4 callers.

Flop QJ7 two tone ($700+)

I lead for $500, only villain calls.

Turn 5o

I lead for 3k, he calls.

River 2o

Action?

Like to hear thoughts on turn play.

Oh yeah, Only other hand we have played is I limp 44 UTG everyone limps, villain raises on button, flop comes A67 checked around, turn 5, villain bets, I call someone else calls, river 5, I lead for 1200 (2/3 pot), other guy mucks, villain thinks forever and calls with 99. I should have bet more.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I'd go for a check/raise here, you're both deep and that's really the only way for a good shot at his stack. If he has a set or two pair I'm guessing he'll bet out and maybe he'll bluff with a missed flush/straight draw which I think is his most likely holding. The hands he'd check behind here with are probably missed draws which won't call another bet anyway or 1 pair hands. It's hard to put him on a queen.. the only hand he might call another bet on the river with but not bet himself are an overpair or maybe AJ but not sure if he'd even call with that unless he sees you as really aggressive.

edit: didn't really notice the huge overbet on turn, I guess if he'll call that overbet a push or close to it is fine

Re: 20/40 top set
 

Well, since you've been playing fast and if he's aware of that, with the memory of the 44 hand you posted, i'd lead out small on the river and hope that he re-raises you because he thinks you are weak...i like the turn play since you've been playing fast..

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I'd push....

Pot is 7700....U have ~8500 left......

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I'd bet 4k-5k. Him calling 3k on the turn makes a river bluff rather unlikely.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

why push? unless you can put him on a lower set, do you think EV(push) > EV(small bet)...what if he has two pairs? playing fairly tight and possibly just trying to get a showdown for as cheap as possible??

Re: 20/40 top set
 

almost 8k in the pot. you both have barely more than the pot left. opponent has shown a propensity to make calls. you are playing fast. push in all the chippies.

chance he could have a big draw (KTs, or gutterball+flush draw) that you could get money out of by giving him chance to bluff if you check. but i think you make more money by getting it in.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I vote for a check.

Your huge turn bet looks like a bluff and checking would be feigning giving up on the river. Villian can really only call that turn bet with 2 pair or a set (maybe AQ i really doubt it though). I think by pushing you are giving 2 pair a chance to fold but if you check it will certainly value bet. Obviously if villain holds a set the money is going in either way, but I think a push on the end scares off some 2 pair hands.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

If he's not on a flush draw, he's calling a push, IMO. Do you think he'd call that turn bet with a flush draw or KT?

Re: 20/40 top set
 

yes

Re: 20/40 top set
 

GOTTA PUSH!

Re: 20/40 top set
 

i strongly prefer a bet here and usually all of it. it is too likely that the guy has some medium-strength hand that he will call you with but will definitely check with. too likely he'll give up on a draw if you check considering he probably has marked you as "crazy" and will be less likely to bluff you.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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yes

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I'm surprised that you think so: that seems to be a horrible Villain holding to justify a $3K call with 1700 in already. Accepting your premise that a flush draw is a material part of his range, then isn't a river check a better line? His busted draw can't call a chip; but it might consider a bluff. And it's not clear to me that you're giving away much EV to the rest of his range: the money is going in if he has a set; the only real question is his line if he's holding two pair. On that board, two pair looks strong; it might well bet.

IMHO, of course.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

Hi AZK,

Push.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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Hi AZK,

Push.

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Re: 20/40 top set
 

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I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.

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Of course; but an equally emetic outcome occurs if you stack and the man mucks a two-pair he was intending to bet. The question here is how to weight the outcomes.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

Some of these posts seem to ignore something the OP said; Villain is willing to stack off with TPTK.

From that I would assume although he would probably check behind on the end with one pair, he will call an all-in here with two pair, and maybe TPTK as well.

So, poooooosh.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

can you describe the villian?
i'm assuming this is at the commerce.

ok so i have a hard time believing this guy has a set as i think we hear about it on the turn.

the question is will he bluff a busted draw here if checked to?
if you don't think he'll do OFTEN then push.
for me personally i push here almost always.
remember it only has to work like 40% of the time to make it +EV.

the only aside to this is that in live games ppl are much more likely to give you credit for a hand when you push all-in on the river after leading flop and turn because very few players in that commerce game will fire three barrels.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

i just dont think you can expect this guy to bluff here... though it looks like his way most likely hand is some kinda big draw, i think you have got to push and hopefully he played QJ like this and you bust him.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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yes

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Are these more likely than a real hand? How often do you bet down like this with air? Do you really expect him to bluff here? I push.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.

I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands.

Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways.

I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

Checking and pushing don't seem right, so I'd make a blocking bet-sized bet on the river. It would have to be enough to get value out of if called, and at the same time enough to give villain the option to come over the top if he thinks his hand is good/hero is full of it.

Does that make sense? (it did in my head)

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.

I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands.

Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways.

I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET.

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I don't think this logic is correct. Most players that are calling down in this manner don't have a mentality that they can call a 4.5k bet but when you bet 8k they'll just say aw shucks i guess you got my J7 beat.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

So you think more players are willing to call and all in here than $4.5K?

This is something that you and I obviously disagree on.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.

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Of course; but an equally emetic outcome occurs if you stack and the man mucks a two-pair he was intending to bet. The question here is how to weight the outcomes.

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I think that the chances of two pair checking behind are close to zero.

I also think the chances of two pair mucking to an allin are pretty low.

But I don't think it matters much, because there aren't really that many two pair possibilities out there. 3 combos of QJ. More of J7, I suppose, but what are the odds of someone calling a preflop raise with it, and then playing it passively?

Re: 20/40 top set
 

this is what peolpe are missing here, i think... what can he have here besides top two (unlikely), AQ (also unlikely), a set (which is unlikely given action but he sticks it in anyway) or a big draw. i think if he bluffs enough a check is the best way to go but like everyone said, what are the chances he's going to try to bluff you here? he seems like a calling station so when he checks behind AQ you will want to kill yourself.

a lot of times in these spots i like a weak lead for value/induce a bluff but here the stacks don't permit it. if you're going to let him bluff it needs to be all in for whatever you have left, or else he gets way too scared about no fold equity, if he isnt already. so i think weak leading is the worst here. given the board though and the unlikeliness of him having a strong made hand, i am inclined to check... but this one comes down to a read of if he is a river bluffer or not.

oh, i just thought of something. another option is not just a weak lead, like a joke of a lead. like 700... he can't feel comfortable calling with a missed draw and you don't let him check behind (which many players with like KT will do and just pray you had T9) so he might be tempted into raising. but i feel like this ridic weak lead is so obvious that he'd have to be really really really dumb. so in sum, i like a check here.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

u think its possible given the villian's image of hero that villian would call flop w/ 77 and then is a bit scared to push after the 3k bet into a 1700 pot?

then on the river he plans to raise a blocking bet maybe or just call whatever.

if 77 could be in his range, id bet

Barron

Re: 20/40 top set
 

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I think that the chances of two pair checking behind are close to zero.


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Agree. I think most people can't resist the temptation to try and value bet two pair here when hero shows weakness on the river. After calling the huge bet on the turn, it is unlikely that villian has anything less then two pair, maybe tptk, but unlikely because hero has qq. Another thing to consider is wether villian would be playing anything that would make two pair? on this board maybe QJ but again that's unlikly, so villian probably has a set considering he called the pfr.

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I also think the chances of two pair mucking to an allin are pretty low.


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Disagree. I think two small pairs are easy to get rid of when big agression is shown in ep on all streets. Maybe not such an easy decision since hero has a laggy image, but not an easy call anyway.

All in all, I think its most likely villian has a set, in which case it doesn't really matter what you do, the money's going in. I really don't think he'd have anything less then two pair at all, in which case it would be better to check and let him bet, rather then go all in and risk him folding.

Re: 20/40 top set
 

I've already responded but for some reason I feel like I need to say it again.

No checks here...bet!