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Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis

With the Party BBJ around $600K, I spent a little time and modified my simulator to count hands that would qualify for the BBJ. Here are the results after a few billion hands:

Overall chance of BBJ: One per 192K hands

The breakdown of BBJ hands is:
SF over SF : 24%
SF over Quads: 55%
Quads over Quads: 21%

These numbers assume no folds of the 2 hands involved. Looking at the actual hands, I think slightly more than 50% of the SF hands would be folded preflop (or even on the flop), so I'd guess the BBJ will hit around once per 350-400K hands on average.

If the BBJ hit frequency is indeed once per 400K hands, that would mean the BBJ would be hit every ~$120-140K on average, since each raked hand contributes 0.50 to the BBJ, and assuming 60-70% of hands raked. So the current BBJ will probably be hit before it gets to $800K.

Anyone else made an estimate of the BBJ frequency?

My code attempts to follow the party rules (quads >= 8s, both hole cards used, etc.), but could have bugs of course.

(I suppose this post might belong in probability or software, but who has time to read those while 10-tabling?) [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]