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-   -   Holy cow! (lc) (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=274978)

Skjonne 06-17-2005 01:46 PM

Holy cow! (lc)
 
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

BB ($481.8)
Hero ($325.05)
MP ($159.05)
Button ($197)
SB ($178.8)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $85</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero folds, MP calls $65.

Flop: ($180) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: ($180) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($180) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $180

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Ks Kc (one pair, kings).
Button has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Button wins $180. </font>

Tim H 06-17-2005 01:47 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
nf

kyro 06-17-2005 01:48 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
I lose $200 on this hand.

PinkSteel 06-17-2005 01:50 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Where is FreakDaddy? Fold the Kings preflop, dammit!

Oh wait, didn't see the flush outs....

beginnersluck13 06-17-2005 01:53 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
excellent fold, i would have gone broke haha.

EchoOfThunder 06-17-2005 01:55 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
this hand reminds me of this situation....


http://www.riveredagain.com/index.php?page=articles.php

wtfsvi 06-17-2005 02:02 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Good fold. I hope I'd be able to make it. (Assuming that villains are sane people.)

gulebjorn 06-17-2005 02:04 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Don't fold Kings preflop. Please.

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
excellent fold

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nf

[/ QUOTE ]
Bah

gulebjorn 06-17-2005 02:17 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
I vowed to copy-paste this every time someone brings up folding kings PF, so here we go:

From Harrington on hold'em:

"A lot of players will tell you stories about the times they folded kings because they knew their opponent was raising with aces. Here's my story. About a year ago, a tight player in the big blind raised me. I actually thought he had aces. I was in early position with a pair of kings. I made a modest raise and he reraised me. I thought a long time and called. The flop came three small cards, and he bet a modest amount and I called. He actually had the aces.

I almost threw the hand away, but I couldn't do it. Just not savvy enough. Even bets and raises that seem to indicate great strength can have a variety of explanations, from moderately strong hands to outright bluffs. And here's a little secret from the world of top-class poker. Nobody else is that savvy either, no matter what they tell you.

About one time in 24, when you hold kings at a full table, someone at the table will be holding aces. If you try to figure out exactly when that occurs, you'll end up folding a lot of hands when you're actually facing queens, or ace-king, or something even weaker. So don't bother. Just play your kings like you have the best hand, and you'll do better in the long run.""

res1cue 06-17-2005 02:24 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
thank you, very well said [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] and I agree 100%
I think that you might of folded because you couldn't afford the raise.

djoyce003 06-17-2005 02:33 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
yeah i'd never fold kings 5 handed here....unless the guy that made it 80 to go was the rock to end all rocks.

gulebjorn 06-17-2005 02:35 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
the rock to end all rocks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol. That would be one hell of a rock.

Skjonne 06-17-2005 02:38 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Dear friends.

It was NOT a reraise

It was a (substantial) rereraise.

Automatic fold unless you have a good read.

You can shove Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

gulebjorn 06-17-2005 02:41 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Rock.

Skjonne 06-17-2005 02:43 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

'n' roll

Ghazban 06-17-2005 02:43 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dear friends.

It was NOT a reraise

It was a (substantial) rereraise.

Automatic fold unless you have a good read.

You can shove Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

5-handed at these stakes I disagree. With a read, its a fold, its by no means an easy fold without one.

Sephus 06-17-2005 02:47 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
unless i know button is very LAG preflop i fold too.

sully4321 06-17-2005 02:52 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
you are a wiser man than i... i lose my entire bankroll on that hand

kurto 06-17-2005 03:07 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold Kings preflop. Please.


[/ QUOTE ]

You know... I've always followed this but I'm thinking this isn't good. Especially if you have a read on players. I've had several all-ins with Kings; one time I knew the guy was an idiot and doubled up... but I would say most of the other times, when I raise and someone reraises all in (or there's a third raise), I've reluctantly called knowing full well they had aces. Every time I've lost and I keep asking myself if I'm being stupid.

If its a bunch of lags who always do this or some short-stacked donk, then I agree with you. But if you're sitting at a table for awhile, you should be pretty certain with a lot of players that they must have aces.

IamLeach 06-17-2005 03:19 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
WOW.!!. Nice fold here.

IamLeach 06-17-2005 03:24 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
You know he's right. You can't fold kings....
NF anyways.;)

TheWorstPlayer 06-17-2005 03:29 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Can't wait to LRR you with 76s.

res1cue 06-17-2005 05:21 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
LRR? what does that mean?

Snag 06-17-2005 05:34 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Limp reraise - the most ridiculous move in cash game poker.

DoomSlice 06-17-2005 06:00 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
And the most teriffying too.

TheWorstPlayer 06-17-2005 06:03 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Limp reraise - the most ridiculous move in cash game poker.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

wtfsvi 06-17-2005 08:02 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
Can't wait to LRR you with 76s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Button has to be stupid to make that reraise without KK at the very least. (If MP is not extremely LAG and also capable of laying down AK/QQ-TT preflop that is.) Will you ever (ok, you can't say you will "never", since it situation dependent, but you almost can) make that rereraise with 67s? Nah.

The fold is very borderline 5-handed, I agree. But I don't think it should be ridiculed as weak-tight. I like it. Assuming button is not stupid.

kasey2004 06-17-2005 08:42 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
as far as folding kings i have done i once in a ring game.. ever... 5 handed man thats a monster muck.. very very nice...

well done

Komodo 06-17-2005 08:46 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Good fold to say the least. You rock! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

pzhon 06-17-2005 09:56 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I vowed to copy-paste this every time someone brings up folding kings PF, so here we go:

[/ QUOTE ]
Please don't do that.

You think this is settled. You agree with Harrington, so why not let people in on the Truth you have discovered?

One problem is that you are quoting Harrington out of context. He is talking about tournament play, where the stacks are very shallow. It is very rarely right to fold KK when the stacks are more shallow than, say, 30 BB, which is usually the case in a tournament.

It is very often correct to fold KK preflop when the stacks are 100 BB+. It is a huge leak not to be willing to fold KK preflop with much deeper stacks. You don't have to close to certain you are up against AA to fold. If someone is pushing with worse than KK, you will punish them enough when you have AA.

Skjonne 06-18-2005 12:15 AM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Wow. This is fun.

1) Yeah I have KK

2) Oh yeah a reraise. I'll take his stack...maybe

3) WTF!?! A Rereraise. I'm a dog. Are all four aces in? Let me get my ass outahere

4) Wow people allways complain about KK and AA in the same hand. Here's KK+KK+AA. Let me tell my 2+2 imaginary buddies that. Remember to write "lc" cause there's nothing to discuss, just fun

5) WFTWFT?!?!? They think I'm weak-tight??? (I am btw)

6) And more people ridiculing me???!?

7) Oh I see. The sane people were just sleeping. They are here now

Serioulsy, I only posted the hand because it was KK vs KK vs AA - I don't think I've seen that before. I didn't post to discuss or to brag. I guess that's why poker is fun. What I think is obvious others think is a brain fart

6:15AM - I'm off to bed

Skjonne 06-18-2005 12:26 AM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
Just noticed: The converter is weird but nobody noticed.

1+2 (blinds)
7 (my raise)
2*85 (rereraise and call)

=180

According to the HH they checked it down postflop (very hard to believe) and the final pot was $180, i.e. no rake was taken. Huh?

gulebjorn 06-18-2005 02:08 AM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't do that.

You think this is settled. You agree with Harrington, so why not let people in on the Truth you have discovered?

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to be sarcastic. Yes, I think it is settled, and yes, I agree with Harrington. I don't know about the Truth I have discovered. I read a book. Other people do that too, you know.

I think that especially the part about outguessing yourself is very accurate. Without a huge read, you're laying down a big favorite preflop here.

Are you telling me that out of all the times people go all-in preflop when you are holding kings (I'm not even talking about 6-max) in small stakes games, you are a good enough poker player to point out the exact 1 in 24 occasions when they have aces?

If so, good for you. If not (like me), you should just call and be happy to see them turn over QQ or even 88 every once in a while.

pzhon 06-18-2005 07:16 AM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I think it is settled, and yes, I agree with Harrington.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are wrong, and I think Harrington knows it can be right by a lot to fold KK preflop when the stacks are deeper.

At NL 25, it may be wrong to fold KK preflop with 100 BB stacks, since people can turn up JJ or AT. However, in my experience, people rarely push over a reraise with less than KK at NL 100. Unless you are up against a known maniac, it's not worth calling to see AA again.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you telling me that out of all the times people go all-in preflop when you are holding kings (I'm not even talking about 6-max) in small stakes games, you are a good enough poker player to point out the exact 1 in 24 occasions when they have aces?

[/ QUOTE ]
If people were to move in every time I have KK, then that 1 in 24 figure is relevant. I would call every time, and on average, I would be a huge favorite. Since they don't move in randomly, the 1 out of 24 figure is not relevant. When someone moves in over a reraise, you get information. Sometimes this is enough information to fold KK.

I didn't determine this abstractly. I determined this by failing to fold KK, and seeing AA over and over again.

[ QUOTE ]

If not (like me), you should just call and be happy to see them turn over QQ or even 88 every once in a while.

[/ QUOTE ]
They don't turn over 88 or 94o 23 out of 24 times for you? Then you see those pushes are not random.

"Every once in a while" is not often enough. How often do you have to be up against something other than AA to call with KK? If you assume your opponent has either AA or an unbiased distribution of KK, QQ, and AK hands, you are a 73:27 favorite when you are not up against AA. When you are up against AA, you are an 82:18 underdog.

If you are getting 2:1, you need to see something other than AA 28% of the time to call. At 3:2, you need 40%. At 10:9, you need to see something other than AA 53% of the time to call. How often does "every once in a while" mean to you?

I'd say it isn't often enough to say to call with KK in some FAQ without restricting the context.

gulebjorn 06-18-2005 08:50 AM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
At 3:2, you need 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Without a very good read, I would assume that my chances of seeing kings, queens, jacks, tens, AK or whatever are better than 40% here.

pzhon 06-18-2005 01:36 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At 3:2, you need 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Without a very good read, I would assume that my chances of seeing kings, queens, jacks, tens, AK or whatever are better than 40% here.

[/ QUOTE ]
You assume that is true at all levels? Is this based on actual data?

That quote you vowed to copy every time this comes up talked about Harrington ignoring his read. Do you agree with it enough to post on this recent thread where the consensus was to fold KK based on stats after 150 hands? "When's the last time you've seen a 17VPIP 6-max player three bet preflop with less than KK." "Fold with very little hesitation." "I doubt he would do this with QQ, especially since he was so passive." Now, I'm not sure I agree with what was said on that thread, particularly since the initial raise was from the button, which shows a lot less strength than a raise from middle position. However, don't you think it is worth debating, rather than trying to eliminate discussion by repeating a Harrington quote out of context?

gulebjorn 06-18-2005 03:38 PM

Re: Holy cow! (lc)
 
First of all, let me say that re-reading my original two posts in this thread, I don't like the tone of it. What can I say, I had a few beers and was posting because playing would have been a bad idea.

While I didn't mean to sound as if there is some universal truth in this, and only I know about it and am kind enough to share this with all of you, I still think that I am not wrong here.

This said, let's continue the discussion, because as you said, this is of course worth debating.

[ QUOTE ]
You assume that is true at all levels? Is this based on actual data?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, and no. But I do assume this is true in small stakes NL. That is why the example of that other thread does not apply here.

I assume this because as I said, I see AK or a lower pair pull this kind of move on a pretty regular basis. Of course, if you have a very good read on your opponent, you should always stick with the read.

However, no read was included in the original post, and I think that the amount of a bet is not enough to narrow your opponents holding down to one specific hand.

Anyway, my intention was not at all to eliminate debate by quoting this. I've always thought of this as true, and harrington just worded it better than I ever could. If I did not want debate, I would not be posting here.

I do not mind being corrected at all, because that is the only way I will learn. But somehow, I have a feeling that you were in some way offended by my post. This might be because I came off as arrogant in those two posts. If so, sorry about that.


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